Trends Identified
Future smart cities
In the cities of the future, ICT will play a key role in the challenge of ensuring the wellbeing of large numbers of inhabitants. And cities will become smart. Smart cities will empower citizens by simplifying their daily life and providing them with more resources and opportunities, supporting new life styles, social inclusion and involvement in participatory governance. Policies, however, shall not understate the additional pressure on strategic sectors as logistics and transport and new risks and threats related to the large deployment of ICT (cybersecurity, data protection and privacy). 70% of the world population in 2050 will live in a city.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Diversifying approaches to governance
In the context of rapid globalisation, governments are facing a mismatch between the increasingly long-term, global, systemic challenges facing society and their more national and short-term focus and powers.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Architecting resilience: “Built to survive failure” becomes the mantra of the nonstop business
In the digital era, businesses must support wide-ranging demands for nonstop processes, services, and systems. This has particular resonance in the office of the CIO, where the need for “always-on” IT infrastructure, security, and resilient practices can mean the difference between business as usual and erosion of brand value. The upshot: IT must adopt a new mindset to ensure that systems are dynamic, accessible, and continuous—not just designed to spec but designed for resilience under failure and attack.
2014
Accenture Technology Vision 2014
Accenture
A new age of discovery for biology - An age of discovery is in prospect for biology, predicts Feng Zhang, neuroscience professor at MIT and co-inventor of CRISPR
In the era of modern science, hardly a week goes by without a big advance in biology. Although such progress will continue in 2018, it will not bring a cure for cancer, a remedy for Alzheimer’s or a pill to slow ageing. That is because biology, as a field, is largely still about exploring and not yet about engineering. Some of the greatest scientific successes of the past century have come by marrying science and engineering, from the Apollo mission to the Large Hadron Collider. Similarly, the Human Genome Project required both basic research and technology development. The disciplines at the heart of these successes—mathematics, engineering, and material and computer sciences—have propelled the technology economy, giving rise to nearly all of the most dominant companies in the world today.
2018
The world in 2018
The Economist
Inclusiveness and vulnerable populations
In the face of migration and ageing populations, uncertainties about the future of work and job automation, and continued gender and economic inequalities despite decades of attempted reforms, world governments are turning to innovation to help create more inclusive societies where no one is left behind – especially those who are most vulnerable. Many countries have rallied behind global initiatives such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), while some have acted on their own initiative when confronted with unexpected threats to the well-being of their people. The last few years have seen record levels of people displaced from their homes due to violence and conflict and environmental factors such as climate change, as well as global waves of nationalism that limit the ability of these migrants to integrate well into their new communities. The same period has witnessed targeted gender-inclusion initiatives and a reckoning for gender-based mistreatment, as well as continued disparities in pay and political inclusion. Other major issues are visible on the horizon, such as ageing populations and the displacement of jobs through automation. The world is at a crossroads with governments challenged to acknowledge new realities and create new solutions through innovation.
2018
Embracing Innovation in Government: Global Trends 2018
OECD
We will reach peak outrage.
In the last couple of years, public opinion has been driven by "polarized tribes," says Willow Bay, dean of the USC Annenberg School of Communication and Journalism: “Outrage has been modified, optimized, personalized and, of course, monetized.” Outrage, like fear, is helpful in the short term but unsustainable in the long term, she says. “Many do not want to live in a state of semi-permanent outrage, they're simply tired of it,” she adds. “And I believe increasingly, people are going to want to reclaim consensus, collaboration and shared values rather than polarizing ones.” While Bay is referring to the United States, any country where people discuss politics on social media will recognize a version of this. She points to a study by More In Common which showed that 67% of Americans did not conform to partisan ideology or had disengaged from politics. They’ve been dubbed the “exhausted majority.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Gaming: 'We'll play games to solve problems'
In the last decade, in the US and Europe but particularly in south-east Asia, we have witnessed a flight into virtual worlds, with people playing games such as Second Life. But over the course of the next 25 years, that flight will be successfully reversed, not because we're going to spend less time playing games, but because games and virtual worlds are going to become more closely connected to reality.There will be games where the action is influenced by what happens in reality; and there will be games that use sensors so that we can play them out in the real world – a game in which your avatar is your dog, which wears a game collar that measures how fast it's running and whether or not it's wagging its tail, for example, where you play with your dog to advance the narrative, as opposed to playing with a virtual character. I can imagine more physical activity games, too, and these might be used to harness energy – peripherals like a dance pad that actually captures energy from your dancing on top of it. Then there will be problem-solving games: there are already a lot of games in which scientists try to teach gamers real science – how to build proteins to cure cancer, for example. One surprising trend in gaming is that gamers today prefer, on average, three to one to play co-operative games rather than competitive games. Now, this is really interesting; if you think about the history of games, there really weren't cooperative games until this latest generation of video games. In every game you can think of – card games, chess, sport – everybody plays to win. But now we'll see increasing collaboration, people playing games together to solve problems while they're enjoying themselves. There are also studies on how games work on our minds and our cognitive capabilities, and a lot of science suggests you can use games to treat depression, anxiety and attention-deficit disorder. Making games that are both fun and serve a social purpose isn't easy – a lot of innovation will be required – but gaming will become increasingly integrated into society.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Ethical and Regulatory Practices
In the Laws of Armed Conflict (LOAC), the lawfulness of an attack on a military objective must be kept under review during the planning stage and execution phase; attacks are cancelled or suspended where it is realised that a target is not a military objective, or that disproportionate collateral damage will result. While the desire to minimise military casualties will spur the further development of autonomous systems for a variety of tasks, involving risk to human life, the extent to which autonomous systems can meet the requirements of the LOAC will determine how widespread their use would become.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Techniques and models for situational control in smart transport systems
In the long-term there is expected to be dynamic development of the services market linked to methods and models for situational management in smart transport systems in urban areas. The introduction of such systems will make it possible to increase safety, commercial speed and the predictability of transport, as well as the capacity of the transport system by 15–20% without attracting capital investment to construct and re-construct infrastructure.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
"Brain - computer" interfaces to transfer a signal to specific patterns of neurons
In the long-term, there is expected to be “brain-computer interfaces” which are systems to transfer electronic impulses from the body’s nervous system to an electronic device and back. This achievement would find wide application in neuroprosthesis, in particular when developing bionic sensory organs. The development of this field will subsequently lead to the creation of systems which are a functional part of the human intellect (exocortex) to further improve cognitive processes.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation