Trends Identified
Intolerance and hate crime: the return of an old problem?
Increased intolerance has long been identified as a worrying trend in foresight reports. For example, the EUISS stated that ’Migrants and ethnic minori es will become the main target of groups opposing cultural diversity, and are likely to be the victims of xenophobia in many developed countries‘. The EUISS report framed it in the context of developments that were otherwise quite encouraging. It suggested that ’the decline of theories of conflict between civilisations and cultural relativism is therefore likely, although economic and
social difficulties may reverse this positive trend in some countries, and extremist identity politics and xenophobia will continue to leave
a mark on some parts of the world.’ In a similar vein, the Rand report spoke of the possibility that the presence of ethnic minorities would be widely regarded as undesirable and divisive. More recently, the refugee crisis from 2015 prompted the World Economic Forum to note that ’insularity, xenophobia and right- wing populism are gaining ground across the continent, calling into question the integration process and a common European front on international security policies‘.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Increasing CO2 emissions
Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) have been the main driver of rising temperatures since the middle of the 20th century. The main GHG in the earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone. CO2 is the most important GHG that can be directly influenced by humans. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fuel combustion are by far the greatest contributor of GHG emissions.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Time for Sustainable Connectivity
Increasing connectivity is and will remain one of the main engines of globalisation as it keeps slashing the cost of distance. Hence a growing international integration of production systems and a constant Ricardo-Schumpeterian pressure for efficiencies. This is ne as long as these efficiency gains are, or perceived to be, fairly distributed. But, as we have seen in recent times, opening may turn to protectionist or isolationist discourse if gains are not equitably distributed.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Nano/microsatellites
Increasing use is being made of small and very small satellites with growing capabilities. This will give policy makers an expanding spectrum of sophisticated tools to address “grand” challenges for both civilian and defence purposes.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Research and Development
Increasing volumes of R&D will take place outside established centres of research, with rapid proliferation and expansion of information and research facilities in developing economies. The academic sector will become increasingly transnational as information technologies allow virtual collaborations. This is likely to lead to a decline and possibly even a reversal in the technological dominance of the West, with China and India poised to become technology leaders in some fields. Intellectual property and commercial exclusivity are likely to be under constant pressure from inadvertent disclosure, penetration and espionage. Under these conditions, knowledge and innovation will become more diffuse and internationalised, accelerating the development process.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Advanced robotics
Increasingly capable robots with enhanced senses, dexterity, and intelligence used to automate tasks or augment humans
2013
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
McKinsey
Mobile Internet
Increasingly inexpensive and capable mobile computing devices and Internet connectivity
2013
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
McKinsey
Internet of Things: From sensing to doing - Think big, start small, scale fast
Increasingly, forward-thinking organizations are focusing their Internet of Things (IoT) initiatives less on underlying sensors, devices, and “smart” things and more on developing bold approaches for managing data, leveraging “brownfield” IoT infrastructure, and developing new business models. Meanwhile, others are developing human-impact IoT use cases for boosting food production, cutting carbon emissions, and transforming health services. What impact will IoT have on your business and on the people around you? Rapid prototyping can help you find out.
2016
Tech trends 2016 - innovating in the digital era
Deloitte
Individualism and entrepreneurship
Independence is becoming the dominant motivator for a large section of the population, particularly for millennials (born from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s) and Gen-Zers (born in the mid- to late 1990s and after). These younger people tend to get bored doing the same kind of work for long stretches, and they are especially interested in independent careers. Empowered by digital platforms and ecosystems, many are choosing entrepreneurship and self-employment over traditional corporate employment. By 2020, freelancers will constitute 50% of the workforce
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells
Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPS) are adult cells that have been genetically reprogrammed to the undifferentiated state of an embryonic stem cell. The unlimited differentiation potential and use of the patient’s own cells facilitate the application of the technology for medical purposes.
2009
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2009
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)