Trends Identified
The dark side
Progress thrives on openness, and openness almost by definition means exposure. The Internet, for example, has brought critical dangers even as it has unleashed a business and social miracle. Everyday acts, such as connecting your phone to your car via Bluetooth, create vulnerabilities most of us do not yet consciously consider. The costs of fighting cyberthreats are rising into the trillions. Meanwhile, rogue states continue to frustrate the global community, and the strains from combating terrorism are reverberating worldwide. The number of terrorist incidents and casualties remains relatively small but has been rising; global terrorism death levels by the end of 2015 were more than five times higher than they were in 2001.
2017
The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress
McKinsey
Additive manufacturing
Progressively adding material to make a product take shape is an unprecedented approach to manufacturing that warrants new business models and implies significant changes to existing industries. However, this technology must overcome several challenges, both technical and regulatory, if it is to permeate industrial processes on a large scale.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Cyber Intelligence
Protecting vital information assets demands a full-spectrum cyber approach In 2010, security and privacy graduated from IT department concerns. C-suites and boardrooms took notice of highly visible incidents, ranging from malwareinfected motherboards from top-tier PC manufacturers1 , to information theft from a leading cloud provider2 , to the manipulation of the underlying routing tables of the internet, redirecting traffic to Chinese networks3 . At the same time, the regulatory environment around sensitive data protection has become more rigorous, diverse and complex. Organizations are aware of the shifting threat profile and are working to deal with technical barriers as well as sophisticated criminal elements. Incidents are increasingly originating in the trust vector – due to inadvertent employee behavior via the sites they visit, the posts they access on social media sites or even the devices they bring with them to the workplace. A “protect-the-perimeter and respondwhen-attacked” mentality is no longer sufficient.
2011
Tech Trends 2011 The natural convergence of business and IT
Deloitte
Energy: 'Returning to a world that relies on muscle power is not an option'
Providing sufficient food, water and energy to allow everyone to lead decent lives is an enormous challenge. Energy is a means, not an end, but a necessary means. With 6.7 billion people on the planet, more than 50% living in large conurbations, and these numbers expected to rise to more than 9 billion and 80% later in the century, returning to a world that relies on human and animal muscle power is not an option. The challenge is to provide sufficient energy while reducing reliance on fossil fuels, which today supply 80% of our energy (in decreasing order of importance, the rest comes from burning biomass and waste, hydro, nuclear and, finally, other renewables, which together contribute less than 1%). Reducing use of fossil fuels is necessary both to avoid serious climate change and in anticipation of a time when scarcity makes them prohibitively expensive. It will be extremely difficult. An International Energy Agency scenario that assumes the implementation of all agreed national policies and announced commitments to save energy and reduce the use of fossil fuels projects a 35% increase in energy consumption in the next 25 years, with fossil fuels up 24%. This is almost entirely due to consumption in developing countries where living standards are, happily, rising and the population is increasing rapidly.This scenario, which assumes major increases in nuclear, hydro and wind power, evidently does not go far enough and will break down if, as many expect, oil production (which is assumed to increase 15%) peaks in much less than 25 years. We need to go much further in reducing demand, through better design and changes in lifestyles, increasing efficiency and improving and deploying all viable alternative energy sources. It won't be cheap. And in the post-fossil-fuel era it won't be sufficient without major contributions from solar energy (necessitating cost reductions and improved energy storage and transmission) and/or nuclear fission (meaning fast breeder and/or thorium reactors when uranium eventually becomes scarce) and/or fusion (which is enormously attractive in principle but won't become a reliable source of energy until at least the middle of the century). Disappointingly, with the present rate of investment in developing and deploying new energy sources, the world will still be powered mainly by fossil fuels in 25 years and will not be prepared to do without them.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
Public dept
Public debt is expected to operate as a significant
constraint on fiscal and policy options through to 2030 and beyond. Governments’ ability to bring debt under control and find new ways of delivering public services will affect
their capacity to respond to major social, economic and environmental challenges.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Governing is getting harder
Publics will demand governments deliver security and prosperity, but flat revenues, distrust, polarization, and a growing list of emerging issues will hamper government performance. Technology will expand the range of players who can block or circumvent political action. Managing global issues will become harder as actors multiply—to include NGOs, corporations, and empowered individuals—resulting in more ad hoc, fewer encompassing efforts.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Prosthetics and body implants
Pushed by ever more knowledge on tissues, bio-compatibility of materials, biological processes and IT, prosthetic implants are about to be developed for ever more human body parts. Europeans will continue to embrace this development. Double-digit growth rates can be expected. There will also be policy and regulatory challenges. The question of affordability and a possible social divide may arise.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Human enhancement
Pushed by military and medical research, human enhancement might change the day-to-day life experience of many Europeans in a few years from now-on, e.g. by creating an “augmented reality” and receiving information from IT via nerves-IT-interfaces. The big potential in terms of economic growth will be accompanied by policy and regulatory challenges and maybe even a societal divide. Any regulatory response must build on international cooperation to be efficient.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
AI enablement
Putting AI to work by means of big data and feedback
2018
Corum Top Ten Disruptive Technology Trends 2018
Corum
Algorithms for Quantum Computers - Developers are perfecting programs meant to run on quantum computers
Quantum computers exploit quantum mechanics to perform calculations. Their basic unit of computation, the qubit, is analogous to the standard bit (zero or one), but it is in a quantum superposition between two computational quantum states: it can be a zero and a one at the same time. That property, along with another uniquely quantum feature known as entanglement, can enable quantum computers to resolve certain classes of problems more efficiently than any conventional computer can. This technology, while exciting, is notoriously finicky. A process called decoherence, for example, can disrupt its function. Investigators have determined that stringently controlled quantum computers that have a few thousand qubits could be made to withstand decoherence through a technique known as quantum error correction. But the largest quantum computers that laboratories have demonstrated so far—the most notable examples are from IBM, Google, Rigetti Computing and IonQ—contain just tens of quantum bits. These versions, which John Preskill of the California Institute of Technology named noisy intermediatescale quantum (NISQ) computers, cannot perform error correction yet. Nevertheless, a burst of research on algorithms written specifically for NISQs might enable these devices to perform certain calculations more efficiently than classic computers.
2018
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2018
Scientific American