Trends Identified
Terrorist Organizations
Political uprisings, instability, or other social unrest has led to a rise in terrorist organizations around the globe (e.g., an increasing number of organizations publicly affiliated with ISIS or the rise of Boko Haram).
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Politics of the Information Age
Politics often evolves as a reaction to changing societal and economic trends. There is evidence -- from measures on inequality to the percentage of the economy comprised of services -- that in much of the developed world, the industrial era has transitioned to an information economy. Political reactions to these economic changes are already underway across the United States and Europe. While they are highly unlikely to completely overturn the existing political landscape by 2035, they will add new layers that will shift partisan coalitions and incentive structures. Some of the most important aspects will be industry disruption and political competition for new or more important voting blocs such as newly upper middle class professionals, former industry workers, gig economy contractors, and the elderly.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
VR Goes From Hero To Zero
Poor VR. Just yesterday, tons of us were getting excited about buying our first set of VR headsets — and out of nowhere, AR has pushed it out of the way. Why? At least for now, it’s simply cheaper and easier to use, especially in a professional context. By using 3-D visualization, companies can better train, pitch, and envision new products — without the same expense of VR. This isn’t to say VR won’t have its day. Just not in 2018.
2016
Top 10 trends for digital transformation in 2018
Forbes
Scarcity of resources
Population and GDP growth, urbanization, and a growing global middle class lead to an increasing demand for energy. Continued development in non-OECD countries is expected to increase demand by 29% between now and 2030, mostly concentrated in Asia, and particularly China and India. In 2030, like today, most energy will come from fossil fuels. A continued reliance on fossil fuels is tempting, but it also risks accelerating climate change. Despite the dominance of fossil fuels, the sun remains a vast, mostly untapped energy source, delivering more than 1,300 times the Earth's daily energy consumption to land each day. Water and food also stand to become increasingly scarce—we predict global water demand to rise 32% by 2050, driven mostly by the growing manufacturing and electricity sectors. Scarcity of water is already widespread, however, and even today many European countries face low resources per capita. By 2050, over 50% of the world's population will live in water-stressed areas. Demand for food will also increase 43% by 2050, mostly driven by population growth and changing eating habits. A final area of scarcity is critical raw materials. China is the major supplier of these materials, which include rare earth elements and metals. Demand for these raw materials will grow depending on the supply situation. The main challenge associated with these shortages is one of regional imbalance: most critical raw materials are produced outside of Europe, and conflict over these resources could arise between developed and developing countries.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Natural resource availability
Population growth will impact on those resources that are finite. In particular, there will be increasing pressure on water availability, both for drinking and for agriculture. The production of food will be a challenge as the availability of fertile land is limited, a situation that is exacerbated by the degradation of natural ecosystems. There will be increasing demand on finite sources of energy, with fossil fuels having to be extracted from previously unexploited locations. Other rare materials are also being used at rates which are unsustainable.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
High Efficiency Portable Solar Battery
Portable energy supplies are becoming more and more important due to the scarcity of fossil fuels and the wide use of personal devices. Personal devices, automobiles, and other related industries are expected to produce more than $100 billion market value in 2020.
2010
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2010
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Ambient computing - Putting the Internet of Things to work
Possibilities abound from the tremendous growth of embedded sensors and connected devices—in the home, the enterprise, and the world at large. Translating these possibilities into business impact requires focus—purposefully bringing smarter “things” together with analytics, security, data, and integration platforms to make the disparate parts work seamlessly with each other. Ambient computing is the backdrop of sensors, devices, intelligence, and agents that can put the Internet of Things to work.
2015
Tech trends 2015 - The fusion of business and IT
Deloitte
Shift of Global Power
Potential rebalancing of power from the West to other regions could present political and economic challenges to NATO members. While many developed nations have been experiencing slower economic growth, developing nations with faster growth may translate their rising economic power into greater political and military influence. As a consequence, the ability of the international community to integrate rising powers and manage the associated changes peacefully will be decisive for the future. Otherwise, the potential for tension or conflict could be increased in new as well as traditional hotspots, or threaten assured access to the global commons,17 compromising international relations and security.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
The Constituents of Power
Power is the ability to influence others. The constituents of power will continue to comprise a mix of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ elements.229 Hard power is military, economic and some elements of diplomatic activity that can be used to coerce or pay others to change their behaviour. Soft power is the power of attraction based on culture (when it is pleasing to others), values (when they are attractive and consistently practiced), and policies (when they are seen as inclusive and legitimate).230 Soft power is at its most effective when under-pinned by hard power. The degree to which a state or group can combine hard and soft power into an amalgam of effective statecraft will determine their ability to achieve strategic objectives. Some states, especially in Europe, are already reluctant to use the military element of hard power. This trend towards a post- military society is likely to remain strong, but not irreversible. The ability of the Western liberal democracies to utilise power is likely to be challenged by the rise of alternative power bases in Asia, in particular in China and India. Moreover, all elements of power are likely to be wielded by a broader spectrum of actors and agencies, even by organised criminal, terrorist and insurgent groups.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Carbon dioxide catcher
Practical and affordable ways to capture carbon dioxide from the air can soak up excess greenhouse-gas emissions. Even if we slow carbon dioxide emissions, the warming effect of the greenhouse gas can persist for thousands of years. To prevent a dangerous rise in temperatures, the UN’s climate panel now concludes, the world will need to remove as much as 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this century. In a surprise finding last summer, Harvard climate scientist David Keith calculated that machines could, in theory, pull this off for less than $100 a ton, through an approach known as direct air capture. That’s an order of magnitude cheaper than earlier estimates that led many scientists to dismiss the technology as far too expensive—though it will still take years for costs to fall to anywhere near that level. But once you capture the carbon, you still need to figure out what to do with it. Carbon Engineering, the Canadian startup Keith cofounded in 2009, plans to expand its pilot plant to ramp up production of its synthetic fuels, using the captured carbon dioxide as a key ingredient. (Bill Gates is an investor in Carbon Engineering.) Zurich-based Climeworks’s direct air capture plant in Italy will produce methane from captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen, while a second plant in Switzerland will sell carbon dioxide to the soft-drinks industry. So will Global Thermostat of New York, which finished constructing its first commercial plant in Alabama last year. Still, if it’s used in synthetic fuels or sodas, the carbon dioxide will mostly end up back in the atmosphere. The ultimate goal is to lock greenhouse gases away forever. Some could be nested within products like carbon fiber, polymers, or concrete, but far more will simply need to be buried underground, a costly job that no business model seems likely to support.In fact, pulling CO2 out of the air is, from an engineering perspective, one of the most difficult and expensive ways of dealing with climate change. But given how slowly we’re reducing emissions, there are no good options left. —James Temple
2019
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 - How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review