Trends Identified
Fractured Identities
Several contributing factors may lead to a fracturing of national identity. In a more connected world, different cultures and groups gain a better understanding of each other, which may lessen internal strife. However, as a consequence of a number of factors (i.e. migration, globalisation, human networks and transparency), citizens may begin to identify themselves differently, and thus create heightened feelings of detachment from the whole or nation state. Individuals may rally around sub-national and supra-national groups, identifying themselves in terms of their city, ethnic nationality, religious or other association. Governments, corporations and non-state actors will find it increasingly difficult to identify a single public opinion on key issues. Affiliation with anti-government or extremist groups, as well as other challenges to national identity, will contribute to state instability and possible unrest.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Optimize for both social and business value
Several trends are fueling resentment toward business. The climate crisis and other negative externalities are increasingly visible, automation is sparking fear about the future of work, trust in technology is falling, inequality has risen markedly within many countries, and the most successful companies are becoming larger, more visible, and more powerful. As a result, the role of business in society is coming under question, risking the sustainability of the current model of corporate capitalism. Political institutions are not likely to address these concerns effectively in the foreseeable future. Demographics that portend lower global growth, massive public debts that limit investment, tensions resulting from international migration, and a social media landscape that amplifies extreme voices are all likely to continue fueling divisive, populist politics. The rise of China, and the growing US response, challenge the stability of multinational institutions that businesses rely on. In an era characterized by polarization, everything in business will likely become “political.” To keep the game of business going, business needs to be part of the solution. All stakeholders increasingly expect companies to play a more prominent role in addressing social challenges, which will be reinforced as newly adopted metrics and standards make their efforts and impacts more transparent. Leaders need to focus on their companies’ total societal impact—in other words, they need to make sure that their businesses create social as well as economic value. Not only can this increase financial performance in the long run, but it can strengthen the social contract between business and society, ensuring that the relationship is able to endure. Leaders will need to master the art of corporate statesmanship, proactively shaping the critical societal issues that will increasingly change the game of businesses.
2018
Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the Next Decade
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Social Reengineering by Design
Shaking off the business constraints of 19th century platforms. Modern corporations owe their structure and operating models to the birth of the industrial age, where bureaucracy, hierarchy, and specialization of labor were paramount for efficiencies and scale. Clearly defined roles and responsibilities, strict processes, and a “C3” (command, control, and communications) mentality are tenets of the model prescribed by Max Weber, adjusted by Henry Ford, and refined by Michael Hammer. Many businesses have found success in the model. But current business practices constrain individual responsibility, accountability, and capability. Sometimes that’s due to real or perceived boundaries of a specific job. Often it’s because people are simply unable to navigate the organization – find the right information, specialists, or decision makers to grow ideas, build relationships with people with similar interests, or effectively work together in a multinational, matrix reporting environment. Compare that with the intended goals of social business1: to amplify individual passions, experience, and relationships for the benefit of the enterprise – invisible connections and characteristics within the physical manifestation of our organizations. Aligning the interests of the individual with the mission of the business and every other employee, while harnessing universal qualities of individual worth: content, authenticity, integrity, reputation, commitment, and reliability. The real potential of social business involves breaking down barriers that limit human potential and business performance. But it requires fundamentally rethinking how work gets done and how value is created in the Postdigital era – social reengineering of the business.
2013
Tech Trends 2013 Elements of postdigital
Deloitte
Cyber security
Shopping media, and publishing, but also democratic processes such as elections, are moving online. This can only work with a high level of trust. Furthermore, the same holds for many future sectorial infrastructures, processes, and resources, like sewage systems or smart buildings, that will be adaptive, distributed, collaborative, and efficiently controlled. They will depend on ICT and cloud infrastructure and services that must be reliable, predictable and always available, ensuring confidentiality and protection of privacy and being capable to react to cyber threats in real time.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Result: Adapting to compete
Short-term cost focus Despite widespread restructurings last year, many businesses remain committed to further cost-cutting. In an indication of the cost pressure they continue to face, 69% of CEOs we surveyed plan cost-reduction initiatives in the next 12 months, compared with the 88% who made cuts over the past year (see figure 3.1). Business leaders are also bracing for continued volatility. ‘Under the current situation, demand changes every day, and enterprises need to adapt rapidly. In fact, wide fluctuations in market conditions have become very normal and we must be ready to respond to a whole range of possible conditions: low market prices, strong demand, or no demand’, Huang Tianwen, President of China-based Sinosteel Corporation, told us.
2010
13th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Quantum Cryptography
Signals are transmitted or decrypted by saving the information in polarized light or phase difference of a photon, using the quantum-mechanical characteristics of the photon. The communication system that can fundamentally block the network attack can be developed using the quantum-mechanical characteristics of the signal.
2011
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2011
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
The pace of working poverty reduction is slowing
Similarly, the global labour market has seen only weak progress in the area of working poverty. In 2017, extreme working poverty remained widespread, with more than 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries having a per capita household income or consumption of less than US$1.90 (PPP) per day. Overall, progress in reducing working poverty is too slow to keep pace with the growing labour force in developing countries, where the number of people in extreme working poverty is expected to exceed 114 million in 2018, or 40 per cent of all employed people.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Simulation
Simulations will be used more extensively in plant operations to leverage real-time data and mirror the physical world in a virtual model, which can include machines, products, and humans. This will allow operators to test and optimize the machine settings for the next product in line in the virtual world before the physical changeover, thereby driving down machine setup times and increasing quality.
2015
Nine Technologies Transforming Industrial Production
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Grim Reaping
Simultaneous breadbasket failures threaten sufficiency of global food supply
2018
The Global Risks Report 2018
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Aging populations
Simultaneously, fertility is falling and the world’s population is graying dramatically (Exhibit 3). Aging has been evident in developed economies for some time, with Japan and Russia seeing their populations decline. But the demographic deficit is now spreading to China and will then sweep across Latin America. For the first time in human history, the planet’s population could plateau in most of the world and shrink in countries such as South Korea, Italy, and Germany.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey