Trends Identified
Shift in global economic power
Some emerging economies that were growing rapidly are now in recession. Commodity prices have played a considerable role in sending these economies into reverse. Businesses that are investing, or already invested, in emerging economies will need to make a careful assessment of whether and, if so, how they should manage in these more volatile market conditions, where prospects look less certain today than they did even a few years ago.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
Ungoverned Space
Some geographical regions, including weak states and rapidly growing cities, will not be subject to legal, legitimate or conventional administration. Where this occurs, power is likely to be wielded by groups ranging from warlords and armed criminal gangs through to traditional tribal or religious structures. Each region will be unique and engagement by outside powers will require an understanding of the individual context of the region. Some of these regions are likely to subsist through illicit trade and institutionalised criminal activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability. Many are likely to suffer conflict and be a source of instability in neighbouring regions. The risks associated with these spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the international system. Similarly, states that are unwilling or unable to invest sufficiently in maritime security, are unlikely to be able to patrol and enforce their jurisdiction and internationally binding maritime obligations in their territorial seas and economic zones. This may lead to activity stretching from maritime pollution, dumping of hazardous materials, illegal fishing, smuggling (of drugs, people and other forms of contraband) up to piracy attacks. This will be particularly important when an area of sea adjacent to a weak state encompasses key communication nodes, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Bab-el-Mandeb.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
A “me first” world will be harder to steer.
Some of the institutions that since WWII have held the world together — the UN, NATO, G20 and more — are weakening, notes Stan McChrystal, CEO of the McChrystal Group and former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. What comes after is uncertain, he warns, because when you pull the key stone from the arch, things may fall apart that you did not expect. “Our challenge is we're in a ‘me first’ world now, and I mean ‘me first’ by nations, but also ‘me first’ by leaders, ‘me first’ by companies,” he explains. Leaders need to make decisions from a broader perspective and consider interdependencies, McChrystal says. If you go into a negotiation expecting to win everything and leave the other side weakened, he warns, “in many cases, what's happened is the very ecosystem we both depend upon is gone.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Managing man and machine
Some worry that globalisation will take away their jobs and they’re even more nervous about the impact of technology. Twenty years ago, there were fewer than 700,000 industrial robots worldwide; today, there are 1.8 million, and the number could soar to 2.6 million by 2019.9 Manufacturing output has simultaneously risen, but employment in the sector has fallen in various advanced economies.10 Technology has been one – although by no means the only – cause of these changes. Robots are now entering the services arena; 3-D printing can be used to make cars and aircraft; biotechnology will change the way we grow crops, produce food and manufacture medicines; and nanotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI) will affect numerous industries. All this could happen much more quickly than we expect. Just look at the advent of self-driving trucks to make deliveries, or Amazon’s new Go store, which uses technology to track what customers put in their shopping carts and bill them automatically when they walk out, eliminating the need for human cashiers.11
2017
20th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Productivity, Partnership and People
Sometimes the world seems to be upside‐down, inside‐out, counter‐intuitive and confusing. Who would have imagined, a decade ago, a freely available service such as Google having such a profound impact on almost everything; social networks like Facebook and LinkedIn potentially connecting everyone; distributors in the mould of Amazon selling everywhere; sites such as eBay selling almost anything; financial intermediaries like PayPal setting‐up all over; or sources such as Wikipedia expanding our knowledge for ever and evermore. Customers increasingly are in charge. The mass market is dead. Middlemen are doomed. The niche is nice. Clients collaborate. Interactive communities open‐source and invent. We have shifted from scarcity to abundance. Openness, not ownership, is the key to success. It is all a never‐ending conversation.
2011
Just imagine - RICS strategic foresight 2030
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
Space
Space divides into 3 communities of users: civil space, commercial space and security space. Much of the hardware is shared and the space launch industry supports all sectors, often simultaneously. Civil space encompasses pure science, such as astronomy, scientific applications, such as climate monitoring, and most manned space flight. The majority of commercial users provide services to terrestrial consumers through Satellite Communications (SATCOM), including broadcasting and satellite-based information systems, predominantly Position, Navigation and Timing (PNT) information. Security space incorporates military uses of PNT and SATCOM, state surveillance capabilities and uniquely military applications, such as nuclear detonation detection and missile launch warning. Space Situational Awareness (SSA), once principally the concern of security space users, is gaining importance in commercial space, as orbits become crowded and debris threat levels increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Automated voice spam (robocall) prevention
Spam phone calls are an ongoing problem of increasing sophistication, such as spoofing the caller ID number of the victim’s family and business associates. This is leading people to regularly ignore phone calls, creating risks such as true emergency calls going unanswered. However, emerging technology can now block spoofed caller ID and intercept questionable calls so the computer can ask questions of the caller to assess whether he or she is legitimate.
2018
IEEE Computer Society Predicts the Future of Tech: Top 10 Technology Trends for 2019
IEEE Computer Society
A more globally dominant china
Speaking of China, the world's second largest economy is becoming a more dominant global force by the day. In October, at China's 19th National Congress, President Xi Jingping was written into his party's constitution, which has led many experts to believe he won't step down after his second five-year term. "I believe he's going to be here for the next 20 or 25 years," says Catechis.
2018
6 global trends that can derail your portfolio in 2018
CNBC
Chinese Cards and Wallets Achieve Scale in Western Markets
Spend by Chinese tourists is at an all time high. Mobile payments are immensely popular within China. As availability and adoption accelerates amongst tourists, usage is likely to scale up amongst Chinese immigrant communities. This in turn can create a critical mass of resident users in selected markets which could potentially spread to wider demographics.
2018
Top Tech trends 2018
Juniper Research
Split Testing Via ML
Split testing, or A/B testing, has helped companies increase conversions for their businesses across the board. I think we’re going to see an advancement with split testing thanks to machine learning. For example, instead of manually designing different layouts of a website and seeing which one performs better, different layouts would be shown to different customers automatically.
2018
2019 Tech Forecast: 11 Experts Predict The Next Wave Of Breakout Technologies
Forbes