Trends Identified
The nature of conflict is changing.
The risk of conflict will increase due to diverging interests among major powers, an expanding terror threat, continued instability in weak states, and the spread of lethal, disruptive technologies. Disrupting societies will become more common, with long- range precision weapons, cyber, and robotic systems to target infrastructure from afar, and more accessible technology to create weapons of mass destruction.
2017
Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress
USA, US National Intelligence Council
Autonomous Robots/Drones/ Vehicles – The Rise of the Machine
The robotics market is highly dynamic now, companies outside the classical robotics market invest and with China, a new international player has emerged. Hardware costs will go down and light-weight materials and 3D printing will allow to create new and cheaper models faster than before. Battery and energy efficiency will be a decisive factor. Robots are now able to learn and they have gained flexibility, speed, and manual finesse. The advances in data processing will free robots from former computing restraints. Advanced sensors, voice recognition, and machine learning algorithms will drive the interactivity of robot and human-robot collaboration will make major breakthroughs including voice, face, emotional and behavioral recognition. For now, robots have no broad understanding of the context nor the environment and they do not understand complex human behavior. Empathy seems to be out of scope for now but would have with big implications for employment and the future of work and life. Industrial robots will increasingly use intelligent features such as predictive analytics, self-learning and swarm behavior. Developments are adaptive robots with scanning and sensor technologies, 3D printing, high level semantics, collaboration with operator and new human-machine interfaces. Professional service robots will mostly found in medical, field, and entertainment but increasingly in classical services such as butler, kiosk, service robot. The ratio of connected and autonomous cars will rise fast. Nontraditional tech companies are gaining traction in the very technology that makes cars run, such as driver assistance systems, dashboard functions and autonomous driving and mapping. Drones in all variants are now a stable technology with demand rising mainly around agriculture use cases, delivery, remote maintenance as well as asset and inventory tracking. Personal robots are developed for household/daily care, assisting functions, and multipurpose work. They still have problems with most daily tasks, which will need an-other 10 years of development.
2018
Trend Report 2018 - Emerging Technology Trends
SAP
Long-term weather forecasts with long lead times
The role of long-term weather forecasting with a large lead time and a success rate exceeding climate forecasts will grow in environmental forecasting (in particular, dangerous natural phenomena) and economic planning (natural resources and economic risks affected by the climate, trends in climate dependent economic sectors, etc.), which will in turn contribute to the achievement of sustainable development and the security of the country.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
How “Social” is Social Media?
The roots of the social media phenomenon as a societal paradigm are fascinating. In the late 90s, the dispersion of the internet and home PCs became the new means of communication, and provided inspiration for experimentation with how we as humans connect and express ourselves. The hype was immense – as today’s older millennials will remember - basic messaging boards and forums became interactive networks where internet users gained a voice of their own.
2019
Trends 19
GlobalWebIndex
Growing number of international ‘virtual workers’
The same tools that allow Canadians to work from a coffee shop will also support them in becoming “virtual workers” for employers in other countries. If they develop the right skills, they could compete globally for short tasks or part-time or full-time work. The system will also allow foreigners to bid for tasks and jobs in Canada. The workforce will become increasingly global. Worksites are emerging that facilitate finding virtual work (e.g., freelancer.ca or eLance.com). Reputation systems (e.g., eBay’s ratings system) will track individual performance, competence and specific skills to allow virtual employers to quickly find competent and trustworthy workers.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Exploitation of Extreme Environments
The search for alternative sources of energy, minerals, food and water, enabled by the assured transfer and access to information, will become more urgent. Consequently the exploration of extreme environments such as: space; the Polar regions; the deep ocean; and deep underground regions is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Lithium-air Battery
The secondary battery that uses electric power generated by the combination of Li metal and atmospheric oxygen. As this battery provides 10 times larger capacity that existing batteries, it will be widely used for mobile power supply for electronic cars, mobile phones and laptop, etc.
2011
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2011
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Continuing presence of instability in the world
The security challenges will remain a key issue for the EU over the next two decades. Structural change in Asia, Latin America, Eurasia, and Africa and particularly the Middle East with unresolved religious, sectarian, and ethnic tensions will continue to generate armed violence, including organised crime and terrorism.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
New world order
The shift of economic power to emerging markets is in full swing. Reports suggest that the GDP of developing countries is now at least equal to the developed world.46 Developing countries’ share of global exports has increased over the last decade from 33 to 43 percent. Their share of global foreign direct investments (FDI) inflow has grown from nearly 20 to over 50 percent.47 China and India are on track to have 35 percent of the world’s population and 25 percent of its GDP by 2030.48 Brazil, Russia, India, and China’s combined share of world GDP is expected to match that of the original G7 countries by 2030.49 Even if these projections prove too optimistic, the rise of new economic powers may be expected to lead to a new world order.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
When China changes, everything changes
The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, the world’s largest energy consumer.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)