Trends Identified
Beyond shanghai: the age of urbanization
The shifting of the locus of economic activity and dynamism to emerging markets like China and to cities within those markets. These emerging markets are going through simultaneous industrial and urban revolutions, shifting the center of the world economy east and south at a speed never before witnessed.
2015
The four global forces breaking all the trends
McKinsey
Gender Equality
The significance of the divide between societies that are progressing towards gender equality and those that are not, will continue to grow. Progress towards equality will be uneven and conditioned by cultural assumptions, demographic trends and economic circumstances.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Perovskite Solar Cells
The silicon solar cells that currently dominate the world market suffer from three fundamental limitations. A promising new way of making high-efficiency solar cells, using perovskites instead of silicon, could address all three at once and supercharge the production of electricity from sunlight. The first major limitation of silicon photovoltaic (PV) cells is that they are made from a material that is rarely found in nature in the pure, elemental form needed. While there is no shortage of silicon in the form of silicon dioxide (beach sand), it takes tremendous amounts of energy to get rid of the oxygen attached to it. Typically, manufacturers melt silicon dioxide at 1500–2000 degrees Celsius in an electrode arc furnace. The energy needed to run such furnaces sets a fundamental lower limit on the production cost of silicon PV cells and also adds to the emissions of greenhouse gases from their manufacture. Perovskites—a wide-ranging class of materials in which organic molecules, made mostly of carbon and hydrogen, bind with a metal such as lead and a halogen such as chlorine in a three-dimensional crystal lattice—can be made much more cheaply and with fewer emissions.Manufacturers can mix up batches of liquid solutions and then deposit the perovskites as thin films on surfaces of virtually any shape, no furnace needed. The film itself weighs very little. Those features thus eliminate the second big limitation of silicon solar cells, which is their rigidity and weight. Silicon PV cells work best when they are flat and housed in large, heavy panels. But those panels make large-scale installations very expensive, which is in part why you typically see them on rooftops and big solar “farms.” The third major limitation of conventional solar cells is their power conversion efficiency, which has been stuck at 25 percent for 15 years. When they were first described, perovskites offered much lower efficiency. In 2009, perovskite cells made of lead, iodide and methylammonium converted less than 4 percent of the sunlight that hit them into electricity. But the pace of improvement in perovskites has been phenomenal, thanks in part to the fact that thousands of different chemical compositions are possible within this class of material. By 2016, perovskite solar-cell efficiencies were above 20 percent—a five-fold improvement in just seven years and a stunning doubling in efficiency within just the past two years. They are now commercially competitive with silicon PV cells, and the efficiency limits of perovskites could be far higher still. Whereas silicon PV technology is now mature, perovskite PVs continue to improve rapidly. Researchers still need to answer some important questions about perovskites, such as how durable they will be when exposed to years of weathering and how to industrialize their production to churn out quantities large enough to compete with silicon wafers in the global market. But even a relatively small initial supply of these new cells could be important in bringing solar power to remote locations that are not yet connected to any electrical grid. When paired with emerging battery technology, perovskite solar cells could help transform the lives of 1.2 billion people who currently lack reliable electricity (see “Next Generation Batteries page 7”).
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Skill imbalances
The skills and capabilities businesses require are rapidly evolving. Even as automation may yield a surplus of unskilled and semiskilled labor, the digitalization of products and services is creating an enormous demand for skilled digital talent. By 2020, 30% of tech jobs will go unfilled because of talent shortages.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Renewables will power mobile networks
The skills gap is actually an information gap. The problem is not that workers are unskilled; it’s that workers don’t know what skills employers need. Technology is already disrupting existing jobs, and creating new jobs that never existed before. In fact, the top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010 did not even exist in 2004. Change is happening so rapidly that 65 percent of today’s grade school kids in the U.S. will end up at jobs that haven’t even been invented yet.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
We will stop living an Insta life.
The social media honeymoon is over. As people question their screen addiction, the impacts are felt in all walks of life, from dinners where guests demand the phones be put away to changing trends in the beauty industry. “In 2019, people are looking to scale back, simplify their routine and their look,” says Melissa Butler, founder and CEO of The Lip Bar, after years where trends were set by Instagram influencers and elaborate makeup tutorials on Youtube. “Social media has played such a big part in pressuring us to show up in a certain way. People are looking to reconnect with who they are, go back to the basics.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Space technologies
The space sector is entering a new era with the inclusion of new technologies, operational concepts, manufacturing processes that in turn can enable new applications and services. International competition is increasing with new entrants (both new countries and new companies) and is challenging Europe's position.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Approaches and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment
The speed of development of methods and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment, aimed primarily at reducing harmful emissions, will increase rapidly. Aside from this, new products will make it possible to reduce fuel costs for passenger transport, noise levels and increase flight safety. By 2030, it is expected that the aviation market will see the emergence of aircraft with improved key characteristics: accident rates will reduce by 8.5 times compared with 2010 levels, fuel costs and CO2 emissions will fall by 1.6 times, NOx emissions will drop by 1.8 times in terms of ICAO standards, and noise levels will be lower by up to 30 dB in terms of ICAO standards. In the period up to 2020, products will appear which fully satisfy future ICAO standards setting strict demands on the environmental factors of air trans- port.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
...but some disgraced executives will make a comeback.
The spin doctors have learned to plan for it and manage what Martin calls “the sorry cycle.” “We’re compressing the time and space between success, failure and then redemption,” he explains. “Apology content has become a major component of any marketing strategy.” It’s ok to find that cynical; he does too.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Real-time automatic speech translation technology
The spoken language automatic machine translation considers the characteristics of the spoken language, such as omission of the subject, inversion and ambiguity, unlike document translation and is promoted by the automatic machine translation technology. Automatic interpretation technology is important in narrowing the input and output difference between speech recognition and automatic translation using the situation/context information.
2012
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2012
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)