Trends Identified
The arrival of autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles.
The transportation system is in transition. As old vehicles are replaced, the new ones will be more autonomous, smarter and more efficient. Autonomous wheelchairs and delivery vehicles, for example, may become available in hospitals, factories, warehouses and resorts. Although not yet fully autonomous, vehicles with “driver assist” are the new standard for public and personal transportation. Diagnostic tools that use AI will enable vehicles to service themselves by seeking oil changes, brake servicing – even cleaning. As vehicles become even more autonomous, their interiors could transform, allowing passengers to comfortably work or play while they move from place to place. And cars will sync with other devices (e.g., phone, computer, refrigerator) to simplify life even more. Accidents could still occur but identifying who is to blame (the manufacturer, the car’s AI designer or the owner) will become a challenge. All of these factors will contribute to new notions of vehicle ownership and liability.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Custom cancer vaccines
The treatment incites the body’s natural defenses to destroy only cancer cells by identifying mutations unique to each tumor. Scientists are on the cusp of commercializing the first personalized cancer vaccine. If it works as hoped, the vaccine, which triggers a person’s immune system to identify a tumor by its unique mutations, could effectively shut down many types of cancers. By using the body’s natural defenses to selectively destroy only tumor cells, the vaccine, unlike conventional chemotherapies, limits damage to healthy cells. The attacking immune cells could also be vigilant in spotting any stray cancer cells after the initial treatment. The possibility of such vaccines began to take shape in 2008, five years after the Human Genome Project was completed, when geneticists published the first sequence of a cancerous tumor cell. Soon after, investigators began to compare the DNA of tumor cells with that of healthy cells—and other tumor cells. These studies confirmed that all cancer cells contain hundreds if not thousands of specific mutations, most of which are unique to each tumor. A few years later, a German startup called BioNTech provided compelling evidence that a vaccine containing copies of these mutations could catalyze the body’s immune system to produce T cells primed to seek out, attack, and destroy all cancer cells harboring them. In December 2017, BioNTech began a large test of the vaccine in cancer patients, in collaboration with the biotech giant Genentech. The ongoing trial is targeting at least 10 solid cancers and aims to enroll upwards of 560 patients at sites around the globe. The two companies are designing new manufacturing techniques to produce thousands of personally customized vaccines cheaply and quickly. That will be tricky because creating the vaccine involves performing a biopsy on the patient’s tumor, sequencing and analyzing its DNA, and rushing that information to the production site. Once produced, the vaccine needs to be promptly delivered to the hospital; delays could be deadly. —Adam Piore
2019
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 - How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review
Health, inequality and well-being
The treatment of infectious diseases that affect the developing world disproportionately will be further compromised by growing antibacterial resistance. Non-communicable and neurological diseases are projected to increase sharply in line with demographic ageing and globalisation of unhealthy lifestyles. Inequalities will grow in many developed countries, as will poverty rates and the profiles of those at risk of poverty.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
The autonomous home
The trend toward decentralization of energy and other infrastructure will make homes more autonomous, but will make the need for coordination among systems even more crucial. Distributed energy systems will result in homes that can both contribute to and draw from the grid, but such innovations will be dependent on advances in energy production and storage. Unconstrained by traditional urban services, new homes could proliferate in areas well beyond urban planning control.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Democracy in the Middle East and North Africa in 2030
The two most important events affecting the evolution of democracy in the region in the last two decades were the US Global War on Terror, especially the Iraq War, and the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Both led to major transformations in the region, which is now in turmoil: violent repression of legitimate protest and regional antagonisms have led to civil wars with over 15 million refugees; the securitisation of domestic politics, whereby ‘normal’ policy issues are treated as security threats, has put a stop to reform movements; and the low oil price and economic stagnation have further destabilised the region.
2016
Global Trendometer - essays on medium- and long-term global trends
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Conflict Risk at Highest Level since Cold War
The Ukraine crisis shows that economic interests can be sacrificed for political ambitions. Major state-on state conflict is no longer unthinkable. Virtually any part of post-Soviet space and Asia-Pacific could become areas of serious big-power competition.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Extended Reality
The umbrella term encompassing augmented reality, virtual reality, and mixed reality, extended reality (XR) represents the continuum between simple, digital overlays and fully immersive digital experiences. XR's true power will be unlocked when it’s used with other technologies like AI and IoT. What’s needed is a seamless hardware and software ecosystem that significantly enhances human productivity and experience. Imagine technicians repairing complicated machinery with full and detailed schematics overlaying the real-world object. Or trainers using the power of XR to create realistic simulations that mimic the real world. Just as jet pilots have flight simulations, XR can make a range of hazardous or otherwise specialized industrial activities easier to train for, from wind farm repair and oil rig firefighting to shop floor process optimization.
2017
The Essential Eight - Your guide to the emerging technologies revolutionizing business now
PWC
More people
The UN predicts that the world’s population will continue to grow, reaching the level of 10.1 billion by 2100; this is an increase over earlier projections that the population would level off by the middle of this century.3 The expansion of the population to 8 billion by 2025, coupled with changing consumption patterns, is expected to lead to a 50% increase in global food production.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Global Governance
The UN will continue to offer a framework for international discourse. It will continue to be the global service provider, offering international coordination and direction in specific areas through bodies such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), UNHCR and United Nations Educational Social and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO). The permanent membership of the UN Security Council is likely to expand, but it will struggle to deal with conflict and tension. Other global institutions will face considerable challenges.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Increasing urbanization
The urban share of the population will continue to rise at high speed (8.5 percentage points) and growth will even accelerate compared to the last 20 years (7.8 percentage points). By 2030, 4.9 billion people, or 59% of the world's population, will live in cities, starting from 3.5 billion today (50% of the world's population). This means an increase of 40% in absolute numbers. In 1990, only 43% of the population lived in urban areas.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants