Trends Identified
Developing countries will dominate global trade
The weight of global economic activity is shifting from the G7 countries toward emerging economies. Over the next 50 years, this trend is expected to accelerate. On the most conservative projections, the economy of the G20 is expected to quadruple in size, rising from US$38 trillion in 2009 to US$160 trillion in 2060 in real dollar terms.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Demographic Crunch
The West’s social welfare system is under serious threat, likely deteriorating over this period. China and other middle-income powers risk unsustainable health and pension costs in the next decade. Only raising retirement age and immigration will help mitigate aging and solve the skills gap, but immigration and retirement age increases are both politically sensitive.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Winners and Losers of Globalisation
The winners of globalisation are often said to be the millions in the emerging economies who have been lifted out of poverty in recent decades, together with those who were already rich and are now richer. The losers are said to be concentrated in the developed countries - the squeezed middle whose jobs, income and prospects have been hit.
2016
Shaping the future
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
A deteriorating American outlook
The World Bank expects the U.S. economy to grow at 2.2 percent in 2018, while many firms, like Goldman Sachs, expect equities to continue climbing, but that could change if there's a blowup in Washington. With Donald Trump's erratic and often offensive behavior, an ongoing special counsel investigation and an increasingly divided American public, domestic issues could get in the way of a continued bull market.
2018
6 global trends that can derail your portfolio in 2018
CNBC
Significant variations in employment outcomes continue to exist between regions and countries
The world continues to experience diverse trends in employment outcomes. Developed countries are expected to enter their sixth consecutive year of decreasing unemployment rates, falling to 5.5 per cent in 2018, the lowest rate since 2007. Yet many countries continue to report high rates of labour underutilization, with large shares of discouraged workers and growing incidence of involuntary part- time employment.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Globalisation
The world economy’s centre of gravity will continue to shift east and southwards, and new players will wield more power, some of them states, some of them non-state actors (such as multinational enterprises and NGOs) and others newly emerging megacities. Driving and facilitating many of these shifts in power and influence is globalisation, which operates through flows of goods, services, investment, people and ideas, and is enabled by widespread adoption of digital technologies. But globalisation will inevitably face counter-currents and crosswinds, such as geopolitical instability, possible armed conflict and new barriers to trade.
2016
OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016
OECD
Creating value in totally new ways
The world has benefited from the development of more general-purpose technologies in the past century than in the previous four combined. Consumers are embracing these advances ever more rapidly. The telephone took 76 years to reach half of all US households. The smartphone reached the same level of penetration in less than a decade.
2014
17th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Polycentric World
The world is becoming increasingly interconnected and polycentric. Emerging technologies, improved communications and access to modern transportation create newly empowered actors that may compete with traditional ones. The exponential rise of information technology enables dispersed individuals to act as an effective organised group within a network. This could empower and embolden organisations, advocacy groups, security providers, criminal syndicates, extremists, or individuals to attempt to shape the outcomes of political, social, economic, and environmental issues.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics
The world is currently experiencing a major shift in health problems related to economic development and changing lifestyles. Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (such as HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases (such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes). Non-communicable diseases are also the most important cause of death in the world and are typically associated with developed-world lifestyles. But although communicable diseases are globally in decline, they still pose a significant health burden, especially in the developing world. A third factor in changing health conditions is the persistent threat of pandemics.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)