Trends Identified
Emotional Disruption
As the intertwining of technology with human life deepens, “affective computing”—the use of algorithms that can read human emotions or predict our emotional responses— is likely to become increasingly prevalent. In time, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) “woebots” and similar tools could transform the delivery of emotional and psychological care—analogous to heart monitors and step counters. But the adverse consequences, either accidental or intentional, of emotionally “intelligent” code could be profound. Consider the various disruptions the digital revolution has already triggered—what would be the affective-computing equivalent of echo chambers or fake news? Of electoral interference or the micro-targeting of advertisements? New possibilities for radicalization would also open up, with machine learning used to identify emotionally receptive individuals and the specific triggers that might push them toward violence. Oppressive governments could deploy affective computing to exert control or whip up angry divisions. To help mitigate these risks, research into potential direct and indirect impacts of these technologies could be encouraged. Mandatory standards could be introduced, placing ethical limits on research and development. Developers could be required to provide individuals with “opt-out” rights. And greater education about potential risks—both for people working in this field and for the general population—would also help.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Reuse to repower
As the mobility sector transitions to an electric future, we will soon see a wave of used batteries becoming obsolete when their capacity becomes too low to use in electric vehicles (EVs). However, by repurposing mobile EV batteries in new stationary settings, it is possible to double battery life cycles to more than 20 years.
2018
Global opportunity report
DNV GL
Additive manufacturing
As the name suggests, additive manufacturing is the opposite of subtractive manufacturing. The latter is how manufacturing has traditionally been done: starting with a larger piece of material (wood, metal, stone, etc), layers are removed, or subtracted, to leave the desired shape. Additive manufacturing instead starts with loose material, either liquid or powder, and then builds it into a three-dimensional shape using a digital template. 3D products can be highly customized to the end user, unlike mass-produced manufactured goods. An example is the company Invisalign, which uses computer imaging of customers’ teeth to make near-invisible braces tailored to their mouths. Other medical applications are taking 3D printing in a more biological direction: by directly printing human cells, it is now possible to create living tissues that may find potential application in drug safety screening and, ultimately, tissue repair and regeneration. An early example of this bioprinting is Organovo’s printed liver-cell layers, which are aimed at drug testing, and may eventually be used to create transplant organs. Bioprinting has already been used to generate skin and bone, as well as heart and vascular tissue, which offer huge potential in future personalized medicine. An important next stage in additive manufacturing would be the 3D printing of integrated electronic components, such as circuit boards. Nano-scale computer parts, like processors, are difficult to manufacture this way because of the challenges of combining electronic components with others made from multiple different materials. 4D printing now promises to bring in a new generation of products that can alter themselves in response to environmental changes, such as heat and humidity. This could be useful in clothes or footwear, for example, as well as in healthcare products, such as implants designed to change in the human body. Like distributed manufacturing, additive manufacturing is potentially highly disruptive to conventional processes and supply chains. But it remains a nascent technology today, with applications mainly in the automotive, aerospace and medical sectors. Rapid growth is expected over the next decade as more opportunities emerge and innovation in this technology brings it closer to the mass market.
2015
Top 10 emerging technologies of 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Keeping it cool
As the planet warms and populations become increasingly urbanised, the demand for cooling is on the rise, but existing technology is outdated and heavily polluting. With the increasing need to reduce carbon emissions, this growing market presents more and more opportunities to reduce the need for cooling and make cooling efficient.
2018
Global opportunity report
DNV GL
Human health and wellbeing
As the population expands and urbanization increases the prevalence of non-communicable diseases related to sedentary lifestyles and obesity is increasing. At the same time, communicable diseases will remain a challenge and the likelihood of global pandemics may increase as international travel and trade facilitate the spread of infectious agents.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Climate change and resources scarcity
As the world becomes more populous, urbanised and prosperous, demand for energy, food and water will rise. But the Earth has a finite amount of natural resources to satisfy this demand. Without significant global action, average temperatures are predicted to increase by more than two degrees Celsius, a threshold at which scientists believe significant and potentially irreversible environmental changes will occur.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
Resource Scarcity
As the world’s population continues to grow, there is increased demand for and pressure to conserve natural resources that have huge implications for poverty, inequality, demographics, and public health.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Intensified global competition for resources
As they grow, economies tend to use more resources — both renewable biological resources (see GMT 8) and non-renewable stocks of minerals, metals and fossil fuels (addressed in this chapter). Industrial and technological developments, and changing consumption patterns associated with growing prosperity all contribute to this increase in demand.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Diversity and inclusion
As values change across the business landscape, diversity and inclusion, often seen as “nice to have,” are increasingly becoming a necessity—and for good reason. The business case has never been stronger, as studies show that diverse teams are much more likely to foster employee engagement and improve business performance. Diverse teams are 13 times more likely to engage employees than nondiverse teams
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Construction in progress
As we build the world around us at ever-growing speed, the highly-emitting construction sector must adopt circular approaches and adapt to disruptive technologies in order to cut emissions. Upcycling waste into construction materials will result in a six-fold value increase, strengthening the industry’s foundations.
2018
Global opportunity report
DNV GL