Trends Identified
Gas-hydrates
In Russia there are favourable conditions for the formation and conservation of significant gas-hydrate reserves. It should be noted that this build-up of natural methane hydrates has the greatest possible commercial prospects for industrial development, which is currently limited by the high cost of extraction and high technological risks. The development of industrial technology to extract gas-hydrates would contribute to unprecedented increases in gas reserves, capable of satisfying global demand for several centuries into the future. The extraction of methane from new major gas-hydrate deposits could radically change the configuration of the global gas market and the composition of its major players – both producers and buyers. This is due to the fact that large methane hydrate resources are held by countries which import natural gas (for example, Japan). In Russia, the continental resources of gas-hydrates which are the most promising for industrial development are estimated at approximately 400 trillion m3 and are concentrated in areas along permafrost formations in Eastern Siberia, the Timan-Pechora and Western Siberian oil and gas basins.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Machine-readable world
In recent years, governments have started to discover the power of machine readability, with energy devoted to building open government data programmes that help to fuel innovations both within government and in the broader economy. They are now setting their aims even higher by developing innovative new projects that have the potential to completely reconceive one of the most foundational roles of government – creating laws and other rules that impact the daily lives of citizens and businesses. Governments are also seeking to digitise human characteristics, senses and surroundings to deliver innovative services and interventions. This growing wealth of machine-readable content serves as fuel for a new generation of innovations that use emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and blockchain. While these advances show tremendous potential, they can also pose major risks and raise significant ethical questions. Governments should seek to understand and experiment with these technologies, but should do so in an informed and ethical way.
2019
EMBRACING INNOVATION IN GOVERNMENT-Global Trends 2019
OECD
Liquefied natural gas
In recent years the global energy market has seen a significant increase in the role of liquefied natural gas. Its main advantage lies in its potential for transcontinental transportation using high-capacity cryogenic tankers. The development of liquefied natural gas has had a serious impact on the globalisation of world gas markets: opportunities have arisen to extract gas in regions where the routing of pipeline systems is not seen to be appropriate. Additionally a number of countries without their own supplies of natural gas and in geographical disadvantageous regions obtain a possibility to bring gas fuels and raw materials into their economies. Increasing share of natural gas in the global energy balance due to substituting oil and coal gives an impetus to the development of these technologies which also lead to reduced CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
The Changing Context of Development Cooperation and Financing Sustainable Development
In order to achieve the universal 2030 Agenda, drawing on all sources of finance— public and private, domestic and international—in all countries will be essential. The challenge is to enhance the impact of available resources, while also catalysing additional sources of financing into investments in sustainable development.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Changing power in the international system
In many ways, the power balance in the international system in 2017 looks broadly similar to the world in 2000. Yet in some fundamental ways, the world has changed considerably. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have left its participants wary of foreign intervention. China has expanded its global presence. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to intervene in neighbouring countries and attack democracies with information ‘wars’. And the impact of the 2007-08 financial crisis has hit many nations’ capabilities to fund military increases. There are some broad trends that are likely to continue through 2035: the United States will remain the largest military power; China and regional leaders will see their power grow; Russia will focus on areas of asymmetric advantage to counteract its declining population; and the creation of a unified European military structure with significant expeditionary power will be one of the biggest wild cards in the international system.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
New cures from the bacteria that live in the human body
In life sciences, we’ll have greater understanding of the dynamics of how our microbiome – the tiny organisms, including bacteria, that live in the human body – influences multiple systems in our body, including our immune systems, metabolic processes and other areas. This will result in seminal discoveries related to a variety of conditions, including autoimmune diseases, pre-term birth and how our metabolism is regulated. Regenerative medicine approaches to creating new tissues and organs from progenitor cells will expand significantly. Finally, the long-awaited ability to employ precision medicine, providing specific treatments to a specific patients, will become much more common. The emergence of real-time diagnostics for complex diseases will mark the beginning of the end of their debilitating reign by 2020. The ability to monitor cancer, the dynamic immune system, intestinal flora and pre-diabetes in real-time will change the nature of medicine and usher in a new era of human health where wellness is protected versus illness treated. As a result, fundamental shifts in healthcare will occur, causing it to become largely preventative rather than fire-fighting. It’s far more productive and economical to stop a fire from happening in the first place than to rebuild something after the fire has taken its course. The amount of data available in the world is growing exponentially, and analyzing large data sets (so-called big data) is becoming key for market analysis and competition. Analytics will dramatically shift away from reporting and towards predictive and prescriptive practices, dramatically improving the ability of healthcare providers to help the ill and injured. Even more importantly, it will create the possibility for truly personalized healthcare by allowing providers to impact the biggest determinants of health, including behaviours, genetics and environmental factors.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Latchkey Loyalty - Harnessing the free range shopper
In Latchkey Loyalty, anticipate consumers to seriously review long-term and overly complex commercial entanglements in favour of commitment-lite engagement where simplicity and ease of entry/departure are emphasised. The demand for relationships of this kind has been building for some time among capricious consumers: but herein lies renewed opportunity to creatively ensnare the shopper in gilded cages of apparent freedom and comfort, from where “you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave”.
2018
Trending 2018
Foresight Factory
Ubiquitous infrastructure
In general, infrastructure is no longer the key to strategic business goals. The appearance and growing popularity of cloud computing and the always-on, always-available, limitless infrastructure environment have changed the infrastructure landscape. These technologies will enable a new future of business. For example, quantum computing, with its complicated systems of qubits and algorithms, can operate exponentially faster than conventional computers. In the future, this technology will have a huge impact on optimization, machine learning, encryption, analytics and image analysis. Though general-purpose quantum computers will probably never be realized, the technology holds great potential in narrow, defined areas. A second new technology in this trend is neuromorphic hardware. These are semiconductor devices inspired by neurobiological architecture, which can deliver extreme performance for things like deep neural networks, using less power and offering faster performance than conventional options.
2018
5 Trends Emerge in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2018
Gartner
A radical new recycling process will breathe new life into old plastic.
In five years, the disposal of trash and the creation of new plastics will be completely transformed. Everything from milk cartons and cookie containers to grocery bags and clothing will be recyclable, and polyester manufacturing companies will be able to take in refuse and turn it into something useful again.
2019
5 in 5 - Research predicts five innovations that will change our lives within five years.
IBM Research
Satellites down
In August 2016, a 1-cm-wide man-made object collided with the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sentinel 1A satellite, creating a 40-cm crater and a change in orbit. As more and more satellites are launched, the risks of space debris disabling satellites and disrupting navigation and communication systems will rise. Indeed, roughly one in ten functioning satellites in the Earth’s orbit had experienced collisions like that of the Sentinel 1A. The frequency of such collisions is rapidly increasing; it is predicted that over the next two decades, the average time interval between collisions could shrink from 10 years to just five.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures