Trends Identified
Geopolitical shifts
In 2012, the Brics countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa were reported as being responsible for more than 25% of the world’s GDP based on purchasing power parity and home to 40% of the global population. The axis of the world’s economic and geopolitical power has shifted – and will continue to shift – from west and north to east and south. Poverty patterns and distributions are changing alongside the wider geopolitical shifts, and donor policies are changing alongside them. Declining overseas development assistance to middle income countries and new donors entering the landscape are reshaping the nature of aid. Moreover, there is a risk that some growing political powers restrict the space for civil society action.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology
In 2009, a person or persons going by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a public distributed ledger system which would rely on cryptography and self-interest to enable electronic transactions. This notable innovation, in the form of a system underpinned by incentives and mathematical proofs, would obviate the need for trust in any one actor or central institution as the basis for preventing fraud and ensuring that the ledgers were kept up to date. Within such a system, every participant therefore works to build a single public ledger of transactions and constantly verifies its validity. That ledger is known as the blockchain. The blockchain works through a competitive process whereby the first to successfully validate a block of transactions and broadcast the solution to the network wins a monetary reward. The proposed block is quickly and independently verified by every participant. If a majority of the network agrees that the block is valid, the block and the transactions it contains become part of the consensus blockchain (see figure A.2). The innovativeness of this system lies in the way in which the various parts combine to create the trust and guarantees that the traditional financial system derives from institutions and regulation. The incentives align the interest of participants towards contributing to the system’s security. In contrast, the traditional system relies on a complex armature of reporting, oversight and implicit or explicit guarantees, ultimately backed by the reputation of the central authority. As such, the blockchain technology presents the possibilit y— a first in the field of finance !— that trust in institutions backed by government can be replaced by trust in computer code.
2018
World Economic And Social Survey 2018: Frontier Technologies For Sustainable Development
United Nations
Growing global and EU urbanisation
In 1950 only one in three people in the world lived in urban areas. By 2007 every other person lived in an urban environment. The projected urban share of global population is estimated to rise further to 60% in 2030. The figure in Europe is 2/3 rds of the European population living in urban areas (see graph), and this share continues to grow with nearly 80% living in urban areas by 2030.85 While the situation varies throughout the EU, there are big contrasts between rural and urban communities.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
CIO Operational Excellence
Improving the “business of IT” by planning for the end-game from day one The global financial crisis had a direct impact on a number of IT trends in 2009. With most IT budgets either slashed or stagnant, and an increased focus on cost reduction opportunities, IT operational excellence became top of mind for many organizations. Revisiting the basics in terms of process effectiveness and overall efficiency of the “business of IT,” was one approach many organizations used to drive quick hits across the cost-cutting spectrum.
2010
Depth perception A dozen technology trends shaping business and IT in 2010
Deloitte
Improvements to energy, communications and transportation infrastructure are long overdue.
Improvements to energy, communications and transportation infrastructure are long overdue. New roads, rails, pipelines and networks are needed as millions of people around the world move from rural to urban areas. Strong global growth and low interest rates can help power the investments needed for the cities of tomorrow.
2018
Eight long-term trends for growth investors
Morgan Stanley
Mass Migration
Immigration, border migration, demographic changes, and increases in the number of refugees are causing massive demographic shifts, affecting cultural assimilation, integration, and economic development.
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Growing immigration and problems of integrating minorities
Immigration in the EU will continue but decelerate between 2010 and 2060. The EU annual net inflows are projected to rise from about 1,043,000 people in 2010 (0.2% of the EU population) to 1,332,500 by 2020 and thereafter declining to 945,000 people by 2060. The cumulated net migration to the EU over the entire projection period is 60.7 million. Migration trends vary across the EU Member States. Net migration flows are likely to be concentrated to a few destination countries: Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Countries currently experiencing a net outflow are projected to taper off or reverse in the coming decades.65 Effectively integrating migrants in their host society also presents challenges for integration policy, particularly in view of diversity and minorities. Migrants might be challenged by labour market and social integration barriers.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Igniting the neuroscience economy
Imagine exploring one of the last frontiers of science: the more than 90 billion neurons that make up the human brain. What if a Google Maps of the brain existed and anyone could see “street views” of neural connections and explore the topography of neurons? This is what neural mapping hopes to achieve. Since they started in 2013, the US Human Connectome Project and the European Commission’s Human Brain Project have driven research about the brain’s circuitry—how the brain and thinking work. Such work has spurred innovative techniques, such as algebraic topology analysis, which uses complex algebra to explore the brain’s 3D structure.
2017
Foresigth
Singapore, The Centre for Strategic Futures
Lab-Grown Meat - Meat produced without killing animals is heading to your dinner table
Imagine biting into a juicy beef burger that was produced without killing animals. Meat grown in a laboratory from cultured cells is turning that vision into a reality. Several start-ups are developing lab-grown beef, pork, poultry and seafood—among them Mosa Meat, Memphis Meats, SuperMeat and Finless Foods. And the field is attracting millions in funding. In 2017, for instance, Memphis Meats took in $17 million from sources that included Bill Gates and agricultural company Cargill.
2018
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2018
Scientific American
#twinning: Farming's digital doubles will help feed a growing population using less resources.
Imagine a planet where instant access to critical data on the world’s farmland could be provided to anyone that needs it. In the next five years, this will become reality when a digital twin of the world’s agricultural resources is readily available.
2019
5 in 5 - Research predicts five innovations that will change our lives within five years.
IBM Research