Trends Identified
Dynamism in emerging markets
Emerging markets are going through the simultaneous industrial and urban revolutions that began in the 18th century in England and in the 19th century in the rest of today’s developed world. In 2009, for the first time in more than 200 years, emerging markets contributed more to global economic growth than developed ones did. By 2025, emerging markets will have been the world’s prime growth engine for more than 15 years, China will be home to more large companies than either the United States or Europe, and more than 45 percent of the companies on Fortune’s Global 500 list of major international players will hail from emerging markets—versus just 5 percent in the year 2000.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey
Collectively rich, individually not so rich
Emerging markets are expected to grow faster than developed economies, and as a result developing countries such as China and India are likely to overtake current global leaders such as the US, Japan and Western Europe, while other emerging markets, such as Indonesia and Mexico, will rank among the top ten economies at market exchanges rates by 2050, overtaking economies such as Italy and Russia. By contrast, in terms of income per capita, a measure of individual spending power, today’s advanced economies are likely to continue to dominate.
2015
Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050
The Economist
The center of economic gravity is shifting east and south, propelled by high-growth emerging economies and globally competitive companies
Emerging economies led by China and India have accounted for almost two-thirds of global GDP growth and more than half of new consumption in the past 15 years. Among emerging economies, our research has identified 18 high-growth “outperformers” that have achieved powerful and sustained long-term growth—and lifted more than one billion people out of extreme poverty since 1990. Seven of these outperformers—China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand—have averaged GDP growth of at least 3.5 percent for the past 50 years. Eleven other countries (Azerbaijan, Belarus, Cambodia, Ethiopia, India, Kazakhstan, Laos, Myanmar, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam) have achieved faster average growth of at least 5 percent annually over the past 20 years. Underlying their performance are pro-growth policy agendas based on productivity, income, and demand, and often fueled by strong competitive dynamics. The next wave of outperformers now looms as countries from Bangladesh and Bolivia to the Philippines, Rwanda, and Sri Lanka adopt a similar agenda and achieve rapid growth. The dynamism of these economies has gone hand in hand with the rise of highly competitive emerging-market firms, which are increasingly taking on incumbents in advanced economies. On average, outperformer economies have twice as many companies with revenue over $500 million as other emerging economies. In addition to driving economic growth at home, they now play a disproportionately large role on the global stage: while they accounted for only about 25 percent of the total revenue and net income of all large public companies in 2016, they contributed about 40 percent of the revenue growth and net income growth from 2005 to 2016. More than 120 of these companies have joined the Fortune Global 500 list since 2000, and by several measures, they are already more innovative, nimble, and competitive than Western rivals. For example, our surveys show that they derive 56 percent of their revenue from new products and services, eight percentage points more than their peers in high-income economies, and make important investment decisions six to eight weeks faster. They can also earn better returns for investors. Between 2014 and 2016, the top quartile of outperformer companies generated total return to shareholders of 23 percent on average, compared with 15 percent for top-quartile firms in highincome countries (Exhibit 1).
2019
Navigating a world of disruption
McKinsey
Economic power shift
Emerging economies are lifting millions out of poverty while also exerting more influence in the global economy. With a rebalancing of global power, both international institutions and national governments will need a greater focus on maintaining their transparency and inclusiveness.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
High capacity electrochemical batteries
Electrochemical batteries to store electricity (accumulators) have seen widespread use in many sectors, primarily for mobile devices and on transport, as well as in stationary units – to provide an uninterrupted supply to important devices (communications, computer equipment, etc.). High capacity electrochemical batteries, used in the energy sector for relatively long-term storage of electricity, could play an important role in distributed generation systems to provide an operational reserve and stabilise the electrophysical parameters of local power systems, including regulating the frequency and voltage. The use of next-generation electrochemical batteries will make it possible to increase the competitiveness of renewable energy sources and to practically implement the distributed generation concept – increasing the load and efficiency of traditional electricity generation units through the opportunity to store energy, increasing the quality of the electricity supply to end consumers, reducing electricity loss in the power grids, cutting development and operating costs for trunk power lines, storing electricity and creating an operational power reserve directly at consumers’ location.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Electroceuticals - Nerve-stimulating therapies could soon replace drugs for many chronic conditions
Electroceuticals—devices that treat ailments with electrical impulses—have a long history in medicine. Think pacemakers for the heart, cochlear implants for the ears and deep-brain stimulation for Parkinson’s disease. One of these approaches is poised to become more versatile, dramatically improving care for a host of conditions. It involves delivering signals to the vagus nerve, which sends impulses from the brain stem to most organs and back again. New uses of vagal nerve stimulation (VNS) have become possible in part because of research by Kevin Tracey of the Feinstein Institute for Medical Research and others showing that the vagus nerve emits chemicals that help to regulate the immune system. The release of a specific neurotransmitter in the spleen, for instance, quiets immune cells involved in inflammation throughout the body. These findings indicated that VNS might be beneficial for disorders beyond ones marked by disturbed electrical signaling, such as autoimmune and inflammatory conditions. It could be a boon for patients with those conditions because existing drugs often fail or cause serious side effects. VNS may be easier to tolerate because it acts on a specific nerve, whereas drugs generally travel throughout the body, potentially disrupting tissues beyond those targeted for treatment.
2018
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2018
Scientific American
Robots
Electro-mechanical machines or virtual agents that automate, augment, or assist human activities, autonomously or according to set instructions.
2017
Innovation for the Earth - Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet
PWC
Robots
Electro-mechanical machines or virtual agents that automate, augment or assist human activities, autonomously or according to set instructions — often a computer program.
2016
Tech breaktroughs megatrend
PWC
Electrification of the transport system
Electrification of short-haul transportation enabled by advanced battery breakthroughs for inexpensive, quick charging energy dense batteries could disrupt the market for carbon intensive internal combustion engines and make zero-emissions EVs cost and performance competitive.
2017
Innovation for the Earth - Harnessing technological breakthroughs for people and the planet
PWC
Grid-scale Electricity Storage
Electricity cannot be directly stored, so electrical grid managers must constantly ensure that overall demand from consumers is exactly matched by an equal amount of power fed into the grid by generating stations. Because the chemical energy in coal and gas can be stored in relatively large quantities, conventional fossil-fuelled power stations offer dispatchable energy available on demand, making grid management a relatively simple task. However, fossil fuels also release greenhouse gases, causing climate change – and many countries now aim to replace carbon-based generators with a clean energy mix of renewable, nuclear or other non-fossil sources. Clean energy sources, in particular wind and solar, can be highly intermittent; instead of producing electricity when consumers and grid managers want it, they generate uncontrollable quantities only when favourable weather conditions allow. A scaled-up nuclear sector might also present challenges due to its preferred operation as always-on baseload. Hence, the development of grid-scale electricity storage options has long been a “holy grail” for clean energy systems. To date, only pumped storage hydropower can claim a significant role, but it is expensive, environmentally challenging and totally dependent on favourable geography. There are signs that a range of new technologies is getting closer to cracking this challenge. Some, such as flow batteries may, in the future, be able to store liquid chemical energy in large quantities analogous to the storage of coal and gas. Various solid battery options are also competing to store electricity in sufficiently energy-dense and cheaply available materials. Newly invented graphene supercapacitors offer the possibility of extremely rapid charging and discharging over many tens of thousands of cycles. Other options use kinetic potential energy such as large flywheels or the underground storage of compressed air. A more novel option being explored at medium scale in Germany is CO2 methanation via hydrogen electrolysis, where surplus electricity is used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, with the hydrogen later being reacted with waste carbon dioxide to form methane for later combustion – if necessary, to generate electricity. While the round-trip efficiency of this and other options may be relatively low, clearly storage potential will have high economic value in the future. It is too early to pick a winner, but it appears that the pace of technological development in this field is moving more rapidly than ever, in our assessment, bringing a fundamental breakthrough more likely in the near term.
2014
Top 10 emerging technologies for 2014
World Economic Forum (WEF)