Trends Identified
More electric and hybrid vehicles
Electric engines will grow in the auto sector as advanced batteries take off. Initial costs of electric vehicles are foreseen to decline to parity with conventional vehicles as battery production rises twentyfold. The cost of ownership of electric vehicles is a quarter of the cost of those with internal combustion engines, which will further promote the adoption of electric vehicles as parity approaches. Advanced hybrid engines using biofuels may create a new market segment.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Next-generation biofuels
Efficient technologies to generate biofuels (including motor fuels) will save non-renewable supplies of fossil hydrocarbons, allowing for a significant expansion in the current resource base of the economy, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and, ultimately, a reduction in the negative impact of the energy sector on the planet’s climate. The main developmental directions in bioenergy technologies are increases in the energy efficiency of bio-conversion of carbon dioxide gas into motor fuel, reductions in the cost of biofuels, an expanded raw materials base for biofuels (for example, the development of technologies to convert lignocellulose into biofuel), and improvements in quality (stability, environmental cleanliness).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Future education and learning
Education bears ever-increasing importance as an enabler of economic, societal and political participation and is a core vehicle by which society's values are passed to the next generation. Yet education too has to adapt to a changing world – not just the knowledge and skills taught, but also materials, tools and pedagogies need to step into the digital era. Never before have the potentials for equity, access and quality of education been greater – and not since the 19th century has education gone through such a severe transformation. In the 12 months to June 2014 the number of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) in- creased by 327%. Of those the 2625 MOOCs 597 were European.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Empowered edge
Edge computing is a topology where information processing and content collection and delivery are placed closer to the sources of the information, with the idea that keeping traffic local will reduce latency. Currently, much of the focus of this technology is a result of the need for IoT systems to deliver disconnected or distributed capabilities into the embedded IoT world. This type of topology will address challenges ranging from high WAN costs and unacceptable levels of latency. Further, it will enable the specifics of digital business and IT solutions. “Technology and thinking will shift to a point where the experience will connect people with hundreds of edge devices” Through 2028, Gartner expects a steady increase in the embedding of sensor, storage, compute and advanced AI capabilities in edge devices. In general, intelligence will move toward the edge in a variety of endpoint devices, from industrial devices to screens to smartphones to automobile power generators. Is Your IT Team IoT-Ready? How do you stay ahead of the digital curve?
2018
Gartner Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2019
Gartner
Cloud to the Edge
Edge computing describes a computing topology in which information processing and content collection and delivery are placed closer to the sources and sinks of this information. Edge computing draws from the concepts of mesh networking and distributed processing. It tries to keep the traffic and processing local, with the goal being to reduce traffic and latency. As such, the notion of edge content delivery has existed for many years. The "where to process the data" pendulum has swung between highly centralized approaches (such as a mainframe or a centralized cloud service) and more decentralized approaches (such as PCs and mobile devices). Connectivity and latency challenges, bandwidth constraints and greater functionality embedded at the edge favor distributed deployment models. The advantages of processing power and low costs of operating at hyperscale, coupled with the complexity of managing and coordinating thousands of geographically separated endpoints, favor the centralized model.
2017
Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2018
Gartner
The economy will slow down...
Economists are split on when exactly, but they know one thing for sure: a downturn is coming. “There is a confluence of deep-seated, structural headwinds that threaten to upend the global economy,” warns economist Dambisa Moyo, among them growing inequality, a workforce ill-adapted to rapid technological change, political instability and a massive debt burden on governments, corporations and individuals. “The U.S. has historically been the leader, and the U.S. is probably going to slow down this year,” adds CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger. China is already cooling. “World growth is much more likely to slow down in 2019, and it really looks like 2020 could be the year of a global recession,” she predicts.
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Global Inequality
Economic, social and political inequality of opportunity, occurring between both individuals and groups will continue to fuel perceptions of injustice among those whose expectations are not met. This will increase tension and instability, both within and between societies and result in expressions of unrest such as disorder, violence, criminality, terrorism and insurgency. While material conditions for most people are likely to improve over the next 30 years, the gap between rich and poor is likely to increase.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Distribution of Economic Power
Economic power has long been wielded by wealthy, high-income states such as the US and, to a certain extent, by the EU and its individual members, to achieve desired outcomes. This can be done through the negotiation of trade arrangements or through coercive sanctions. However, rapid economic growth in developing economies, increasing economic interdependence, and competition for strategic resources will erode the utility and effectiveness of economic power. The trend towards a multi-polar economic landscape is likely to continue. As resource scarcity starts to impact, China, India, and resource-rich states such as Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Brazil are likely to use economic levers to achieve geopolitical ends more frequently. By 2040, China’s and India’s output is likely to be of a similar magnitude to US and EU output, although their per capita income will remain significantly lower. Hence, 2 of the 4 largest global economies are unlikely to be high income states. The manner in which this disparity is perceived, and the extent to which China and India focus on internal development rather than wider global challenges, is likely to be fundamental to the global economic and strategic outlook.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Scarcity
Economic growth means the use of scarce natural resources. If people become richer they will use up more energy, water and food, and create more waste. Technological advances often also lead to increased consumption, as well as to new challenges (rebound effect). The much acclaimed introduction of biodiesel, for instance, led to an undesired decrease in farmland used for food production. There is an end to our natural resources. Many of these resources are found in areas that are politically unstable. The rise of the BRIC1 and MINT2 countries (and probably other nations in the future as well) and the corresponding growing prosperity have increased the demand for natural resources considerably, creating an additional problem for countries consuming the most.
2014
Horizon scan 2050
Netherlands, The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT)
Inequality
Economic growth in at least 40 countries has helped to lift many hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It is important not to allow rising GDP per capita in middle-income countries mask remaining underlying challenges – including rising inequality, weak social protection, poor infrastructures (particularly in urban areas), environmental degradation, and rising citizen expectations. Already, according to an Oxfam report, 85 billionaires have the same wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population. In 2012, 71% of the world’s population was reported to live in nations where income inequality is increasing. As well as stifling economic growth, inequality has a significant negative impact upon health and educational outcomes as well as security.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian