Trends Identified

Information and Communications Technology

By 2040 it is likely that the majority of the global population will find it difficult to ‘turn the outside world off’. ICT is likely to be so pervasive that people could be permanently connected to local or global networks, with inherent challenges to civil liberties. Even amongst those who make an explicit life-style choice to remain detached, choosing to be disconnected may be considered suspicious behaviour. There are a number of socio-economic trends that will lead to pervasive ICT including: a widening global economy, greater cultural assimilation and awareness of technology, and a steady reduction in the unit cost of ICT associated goods. The pervasiveness of ICT will be enhanced by the advent of more common functionality, supported by global service provision and developments in infrastructure, such as cloud computing.235 The related trend of convergence will be driven by manufacturers trying to find a competitive advantage over their rivals by merging more functions into a limited range of smaller devices. ICT investment will also be driven by new business models that help sustain the insertion of new technologies. Significant changes are likely to be observed in applications, mobile devices, and tailored information and interaction modes rather than in infrastructure. Constrained investment in infrastructure will be perceived as a factor that stifles innovation in the developed world, but arguably less so in the developing world, which has the potential to ‘leap-frog’ a generation of fixed infrastructure technologies. In addition, there will be far-reaching improvements in processing power and data storage236 resulting from innovations such as spintronics237 in silicon. Improved architectures enabled by advances in grid computing, photonics and possibly quantum computing (which may increase processing capabilities by 100 billion times), are also likely to lead to more intensive, diverse and perverse applications. Wearable and implanted wireless ICT is likely to become available to all that can afford it.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence

Industrial and technological revolution

By 2035, technological advances will have a major impact on the social and economic foundations of society, potentially more far-reaching than the initial phase of computerisation from the 1980s onwards. Technologies involving automation and machine learning have the potential to disrupt job markets, making millions of jobs obsolete. As technologies like self- driving cars begins to proliferate, governments at all levels will be faced with questions of adaptation, governance, and human development. Countries will be forced to consider how much of their core information infrastructure they will permit to be run by companies domiciled in other countries. Parties may be faced with a trade-off between protecting consumers’ privacy and encouraging the growth of artificial intelligence firms that rely on large amount of data for training and improving algorithms. The question of when platform companies achieve monopolistic power will be a key issue brought before the court system in many countries.

2017

Global trends to 2035

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Neuroscience: 'We'll be able to plug information streams directly into the cortex'

By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits. I sincerely hope we will not still be interfacing with computers via keyboards, one forlorn letter at a time. I'd like to imagine we'll have robots to do our bidding. But I predicted that 20 years ago, when I was a sanguine boy leaving Star Wars, and the smartest robot we have now is the Roomba vacuum cleaner. So I won't be surprised if I'm wrong in another 25 years. Artificial intelligence has proved itself an unexpectedly difficult problem. Maybe we will understand what's happening when we immerse our heads into the colourful night blender of dreams. We will have cracked the secret of human memory by realising that it was never about storing things, but about the relationships between things. Will we have reached the singularity – the point at which computers surpass human intelligence and perhaps give us our comeuppance? We'll probably be able to plug information streams directly into the cortex for those who want it badly enough to risk the surgery. There will be smart drugs to enhance learning and memory and a flourishing black market among ambitious students to obtain them. Having lain to rest the nature-nurture dichotomy at that point, we will have a molecular understanding of the way in which cultural narratives work their way into brain tissue and of individual susceptibility to those stories. Then there's the mystery of consciousness. Will we finally have a framework that allows us to translate the mechanical pieces and parts into private, subjective experience? As it stands now, we don't even know what such a framework could look like ("carry the two here and that equals the experience of tasting cinnamon"). That line of research will lead us to confront the question of whether we can reproduce consciousness by replicating the exact structure of the brain – say, with zeros and ones, or beer cans and tennis balls. If this theory of materialism turns out to be correct, then we will be well on our way to downloading our brains into computers, allowing us to live forever in The Matrix. But if materialism is incorrect, that would be equally interesting: perhaps brains are more like radios that receive an as-yet-undiscovered force. The one thing we can be sure of is this: no matter how wacky the predictions we make today, they will look tame in the strange light of the future.

2011

20 predictions for the next 25 years

The Guardian

Rapid urbanisation

By 2030, the UN projects that 4.9 billion people will be urban dwellers and, by 2050, the world’s urban population will have increased by some 72%. Already, many of the largest cities have GDPs larger than mid-size countries. In this new world, cities will become important agents for job creation.

2017

Workforce of the future The competing forces shaping 2030

PWC

Growing competition and the rise of emerging powers and relative decline of the West calling for a redistribution of global power and the EU's role in international organisations and the global diplomatic stage

By 2030, the economic power will have shifted from the West to the East and the US, the EU and Japan’s share of the global economy could shrink significantly— reversing their importance relative to the emerging world. As a result, the calls for rebalancing and more effective global coordination are one of the great challenges of current times. Under such trend, the need for cooperation in the framework of WTO as well as materialisation of a single European voice in multilateral institutions becomes imperative.

2014

Challenges at the horizon 2025

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)

Demographic and social change

By 2030 the world’s population is projected to rise by more than 1 billion. Equally significantly, people are living longer and having fewer children. All countries will need to implement bold policies to cope with these demographic changes. Supporting an ageing population will require greater participation in the labour force from women and the elderly.

2017

Megatrends

PWC

Global dominance of the top three economies

By 2030 the top three economies of the world will be the US, China and India. Such will be the growth of the two latter countries, in particular, that by 2050 they will each be richer than the next five (Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Brazil, and the UK) put together. This will represent a scale of wealth relative to the rest of the top ten that is unique in recorded history.
Given China’s and India’s economic might, they will take on a much bigger role in addressing global issues such as climate change, international security and global economic governance. In the medium term, this will require the world’s existing powers—notably the US—to let India, and especially China, play a greater role on the world stage and adapt international institutions to allow them to exert greater influence.

2015

Long-term macroeconomic forecasts Key trends to 2050

The Economist

Cheaper, more widespread solar power

By 2020, solar technologies could account for a significant portion of global power generation, helping economies and businesses guard against rising energy costs and the impact of climate change. However, finding opportunities to further reduce the cost of solar technologies will be key to unlocking this potential. Because polysilicon, the primary raw material used by solar module manufacturers, is the single largest cost in the solar supply chain, it represents the most significant opportunity for cost reduction. Over the next several years, new lower-cost methods of polysilicon production will commercialize, providing the solar industry with a more affordable source of raw material. In turn, these cost improvements will trickle down throughout the solar supply chain, accelerating the adoption of solar energy around the world and helping the industry realize its global potential.

2014

14 tech predictions for our world in 2020

World Economic Forum (WEF)

Relationships at Scale

Businesses need to rethink their digital strategies to move beyond e-commerce and marketing. Although mobile technology, social networks, and context-based services have increased the number of digital connections with consumers, most companies are still just creating more detailed views of consumers, consumer attributes, and transactions. Individually, these connections may represent new types of user experiences, even new sets of sales channels—but that’s not the real opportunity. Taken in aggregate, digital represents a key new approach to consumer engagement and loyalty: companies can manage relationships with consumers at scale.

2013

Accenture Technology Vision 2013

Accenture

Frictionless Business - Built to Partner at Scale

Businesses depend on technology-based partnerships for growth, but their own legacy systems aren’t designed to support partnerships at scale. To fully power the connected Intelligent Enterprise, companies must first re-architect themselves.

2018

Accenture Technology vision 2018

Accenture