Trends Identified
Other dimensions of inequalities
Although overall gender gaps in education, employment and political representation have narrowed globally, women continue to face disadvantages in access to work, economic assets and participation in private and public decision-making.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
International Organised Crime
Although measurement is difficult, international illicit trade is estimated to account for around $1 trillion of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per annum. In addition, it is estimated that a further $1 trillion is extorted by organised crime and that between $0.6- 2.8 trillion is laundered annually. This can be compared to a global GDP of around $61 trillion and could make the value of global illicit trade around twice that of global military budgets.163,164 These large financial movements, which have been funded by illegal trading, fraud, arms trafficking, people smuggling, extortion, smuggling and the drugs trade will continue to distort the normal political and economic process. The reach of international criminal gangs stretches from the ungoverned spaces in the developing world through to the highly regulated and policed developed world. Corruption is endemic in many parts of the world, including developing and emerging economies and deters inward investment, business confidence and international trust.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Automation
Although companies have been gradually automating for decades, recent advances in areas such as robotics and artificial intelligence are not only obligating people to work side by side with machines but are also creating replacements for human workers—even in fairly sophisticated jobs. Nearly half of all jobs in the US could be automated by 2050.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Alternative motor fuels
Alternative motor fuels are intended to satisfy future demands for liquid fuel and are characterised by acceptable costs, minimal environmental and health impact, and increased reliability of supply to domestic markets. In relation to the expected growth in demand for motor fuel, which in Russia now accounts for at least 80-85% of petroleum product output, this alternative product could replace an increasing share of fuels derived from crude oil. According to experts, the likelihood of such fuels competing with traditional fuels after 2020 is high.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Trends in urbanization
Along with international migration, internal migration is also growing, driving much of the rise of megacities17 and the rapid increase in urbanization (Figure 12). The number of megacities, for instance, nearly tripled to 28 today from 10 in 1990; they have 453 million inhabitants, accounting for 12 percent of the world’s urban dwellers (IOM 2015). While large cities are in certain ways the leading edge of urbanization due to their economic importance, the fastest growing urban centres are in fact small and medium cities with fewer than 1 million inhabitants, which account for 59 percent of the world’s urban population (UN-Habitat 2016). Due to demographic shifts, slow and uneven economic growth within and among nations, and environmental degradation, increased large-scale migration to urban centres is expected to continue (IOM 2015).
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Urbanization
Almost two-thirds of the world’s population will reside in cities by 2030.2 Urbanization is creating significant opportunities for social and economic development and more sustainable living, but is also exerting pressure on infrastructure and resources, particularly energy.
2014
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments
KPMG
Drones
Air- or water-based devices and vehicles, for example Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), that fly or move without an on-board human pilot. Drones can operate autonomously (via on-board computers) on a predefined flight plan or be controlled remotely.
2016
Tech breaktroughs megatrend
PWC
The Burden of AIDS
AIDS will remain an exceptional challenge With only about 12 per cent of the world’s population, sub-Saharan Africa accounts for over two-thirds of the global burden of infectious and parasitic diseases. Worldwide, Africa accounts for 9 out of every 10 child deaths due to malaria; 9 out of every 10 child deaths due to HIV/AIDS; and half of the child deaths due to diarrheal disease and pneumonia. While major progress can be expected in combating the majority of infectious and parasitic diseases, HIV/AIDS poses a particular challenge for the continent, especially for sub-Saharan Africa.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Democratized AI
AI, one of the most disruptive classes of technologies, will become more widely available due to cloud computing, open source and the “maker” community. While early adopters will benefit from continued evolution of the technology, the notable change will be its availability to the masses. These technologies also foster a maker community of developers, data scientists and AI architects, and inspire them to create new and compelling solutions based on AI. For example, smart robots capable of working alongside humans, delivering room service or working in warehouses, will allow organizations to assist, replace or redeploy human workers to more value-adding tasks. Also in this category are autonomous driving Level 4 and autonomous driving Level 5, which replaced “autonomous vehicles” on this year’s Hype Cycle. Autonomous driving Level 4 describes vehicles that can operate without human interaction in most, but not all, conditions and locations and will likely operate in geofenced areas. This level of autonomous car will likely appear on the market in the next decade. Autonomous driving Level 5 labels vehicles operating autonomously in all situations and conditions, and controlling all tasks. Without a steering wheel, brakes or pedals, these cars could become another living space for families, having far reaching societal impacts.
2018
5 Trends Emerge in the Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2018
Gartner
Precision Extinction
AI-piloted drone ships wipe out a large proportion of global fish stocks
2018
The Global Risks Report 2018
World Economic Forum (WEF)