Trends Identified
Health
The past century has delivered remarkable advances in health, as is illustrated by the increase of 4.7 years (male) and 5.1 years (female) to the average global life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2010. However, translating public health knowledge into practice has been fragmented and fraught with difficulty. Whilst biomedical technology and capacity to enhance the quality of health care and prevention have improved significantly, access to health care remains vastly lopsided, with the poor and disadvantaged suffering a disproportionate burden of illness and disease.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Accelerating technological change
The pace of technological change is accelerating. The shifts in technological paradigms that once were separated by centuries or millennia — such as the development of agriculture or the industrial revolutions based on steam and then electric power — are now occurring within a single lifetime. Indeed, the pace at which new technologies are being adopted by the market and used in society has rocketed over the past century and a half. In the early 1900s, it took more than 30 years for a quarter of the US population to adopt telephones and radios — but more recently, the World Wide Web reached this level in only seven years.
2015
Assessment of global megatrends - an update
European Environment Agency (EEA)
Technology and science: rapid, rapid change
The pace of technological and scientific innovation will increase. Computers will become smaller, faster, and cheaper, which means that more people, in both developed and developing countries, will be connected via the Internet. Mobile phone technology, now the dominant tool of communication in many regions, will reach close to global coverage in the coming generation.22 Technologies will become more than repositories of knowledge: they will be increasingly smarter, more autonomous, and more anthropomorphic, with voice- and gesture-based commands.
2011
Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action
International Review of the Red Cross
Web/internet: 'Quantum computing is the future'
The open web created by idealist geeks, hippies and academics, who believed in the free and generative flow of knowledge, is being overrun by a web that is safer, more controlled and commercial, created by problem-solving pragmatists. Henry Ford worked out how to make money by making products people wanted to own and buy for themselves. Mark Zuckerberg and Steve Jobs are working out how to make money from allowing people to share, on their terms. Facebook and Apple are spawning cloud capitalism, in which consumers allow companies to manage information, media, ideas, money, software, tools and preferences on their behalf, holding everything in vast, floating clouds of shared data. We will be invited to trade invasions into our privacy – companies knowing ever more about our lives – for a more personalised service. We will be able to share, but on their terms. Julian Assange and the movement that has been ignited by WikiLeaks is the most radical version of the alternative: a free, egalitarian, open and public web. The fate of this movement will be a sign of things to come. If it can command broad support, then the open web has a chance to remain a mainstream force. If, however, it becomes little more than a guerrilla campaign, then the open web could be pushed to the margins, along with national public radio. By 2035, the web, as a single space largely made up of webpages accessed on computers, will be long gone. As the web goes mobile, those who pay more will get faster access. We will be sharing videos, simulations, experiences and environments, on a multiplicity of devices to which we'll pay as much attention as a light switch. Yet, many of the big changes of the next 25 years will come from unknowns working in their bedrooms and garages. And by 2035 we will be talking about the coming of quantum computing, which will take us beyond the world of binary, digital computing, on and off, black and white, 0s and 1s. The small town of Waterloo, Ontario, which is home to the Perimeter Institute, funded by the founder of BlackBerry, currently houses the largest collection of theoretical physicists in the world. The bedrooms of Waterloo are where the next web may well be made.
2011
20 predictions for the next 25 years
The Guardian
The market state
The often contradictory demands of driving economic growth and providing the necessary safety nets to maintain social stability have put governments under extraordinary pressure. Globalization applies additional heat: how will distinctly national entities govern in an increasingly globalized world?
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
Nursing Helper Robot
The nursing helper robot responds to the user’s needs based on behavioral and facial recognition. Equipped with artificial skin and tactile sensors, the nursing helper robot can work as mobility aids for patients, and assist in nursing
2010
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2010
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
EU- wide internet of things initiative
The number of IoT connections within the EU is estimated to increase from approximately 1.8 million in 2013 to almost 6 billion in 2020. IoT revenues (including the value of system shipments, devices, IoT technologies and correlated IT services) should increase from more than €307 billion in 2013 to more than €1,180 billion in 2020. IoT is expected to impact all economic sectors, with faster take-up in manufacturing and consumer packaged goods. The digital market being the most competitive market for IoT products and services, it should be equipped with appropriate open and high level standards applicable EU wide and with appropriate so and hard law initiatives ensuring a high level of trust in IoT devices and seamless access to the public and private sector.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Migration
The number of international migrants has increased from a total of 75 million a year in 1965, to 191 million a year in 2005 of whom around 10 million are refugees, and up to 40 million are illegal migrants.146 That number may grow to 230 million by 2050.147 Populations in many affluent societies are likely to decline, encouraging economic migration from less wealthy regions.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Hispanics are projected to be the largest racial or ethnic minority group in the U.S. electorate when voters cast their ballots next year.
The number of eligible voters who are Hispanic (32 million) is projected to surpass that of black eligible voters (30 million) for the first time, according to Pew Research Center projections based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau. However, voter turnout will play an important role in the influence of different racial and ethnic groups. In past elections, black voter turnout substantially surpassed Hispanic voter turnout. The projections indicate that whites will account for two-thirds of the electorate, a declining share. As the nation’s demographics are changing, so are those of Congress, though not as rapidly, according to a February 2019 Pew Research Center analysis. Nonwhites have risen to 22% of Congress, and women are a record 24% of voting lawmakers (a share that matches the average in legislatures worldwide). The share of immigrants in Congress has ticked up, but at 3% remains short of historical highs and far below the foreign-born share of the total U.S. population (13.6% as of 2017). An influx of younger representatives is having a small impact on the median age of the House of Representatives, according to a November 2018 analysis.
2019
6 demographic trends shaping the U.S. and the world in 2019
Pew Research Center
Urban World
The number and scale of cities continues to grow across the globe — driven by rapid urbanization in emerging markets and continued urbanization in mature markets. The United Nations (UN) reports that 54% of the world’s population currently live in cities, and by 2050, this proportion will increase to 66%. In order to harness the economic benefi ts of urbanization, policy-makers and the private sector must do effective planning and attract sustained investment in railroads, highways, bridges, ports, airports, water, power, energy, telecommunications and other types of infrastructure. Effective policy responses to the challenges that cities face, including climate change and poverty, will be essential to making cities of the future competitive, sustainable and resilient.
2015
Megatrends 2015 -Making sense of a world in motion
EY