Trends Identified
Lifestyle choices, lifestyle diseases
The growing threat today is non-communicable diseases (NDC). Most are caused by preventable factors, including poor diet, obesity and inactivity. NDCs like diabetes, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic lung disease were responsible for 63 percent, or 36 million, of all global deaths in 2008. Described as the “invisible epidemic”,88 NCDs are now
the leading cause of death in the world.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
The future is electrifying
The growing electrification of energy; in 2016, spending by the world’s consumers on electricity approached parity with their spending on oil products.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Nanomaterials
The group of materials currently attracting most attention are nano-titanium dioxide, nanozinc oxide, fullerenes, carbon allotropes such as nanotubes or graphene, and nanosilver. Those materials are marketed in clearly smaller quantities than the traditional nanomaterials, but the use of some of these materials is increasing fast. Other new nanomaterials and new uses are being developed rapidly. While some nanomaterials offer improvement in established uses e.g. in automotive or construction sector, many are used in innovative applications such as catalysts, electronics, solar panels, batteries and biomedical applications including diagnostics and tumour therapies. Some, due to their unique properties exclusively originating from nanoscale phenomena, can be used for specific applications which cannot be attained by conventional macroscale materials.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Global Governance and Economic Disparity
The great 21st century paradox is that as the world grows together, it also grows apart. Improved global governance is advanced to meet the challenge of increasing economic disparity. But this, in turn, leads to a further paradox: the conditions that make improved global governance so crucial – divergent interests, conflicting incentives and differing norms and values – are also the ones that make its realisation so difficult, complex and messy.
2011
Just imagine - RICS strategic foresight 2030
Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS)
Urbanisation
The global urban population began to exceed the rural population in 2006. By 2040, 65% of people are likely to live in urban areas, with the majority of growth in the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia.155 A considerable proportion of urban growth is likely to occur in shanty towns, with the number of slum dwellers doubling to around 2 billion by 2040. Rapid urbanisation is likely to lead to urban rather than rural insurgency.156 Mega-cities157 are likely to remain significant, containing around 10% of the global urban population. However, approximately 50% of urban dwellers are likely to live within urban areas of less than 500,000 people. These regions are likely to absorb nearly half the projected increase of the urban population and face the greatest shortfalls in infrastructure and service provision increasing the risk of environmental disasters.1
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Unemployment
The global unemployment rate during the MDG period fell from 6.5 percent in 2000 to 5.5 percent in 2007 but increased to 6.2 percent in 2009 due to the downturn of economic activity during the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, however, the unemployment rate worldwide has been declining steadily, reaching 5.8 percent in 2016, and is projected to fall further in the coming years
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Heads and Hearts
The Global Risks Report tends to deal with structural issues: systems under stress, institutions that no longer match the challenges facing the world, adverse impacts of policies and practices. All these issues entail widespread human costs in terms of psychological and emotional strain. This is usually left implicit but it deserves more attention—and not only because declining psychological and emotional well-being is a risk in itself. It also affects the wider global risks landscape, notably via impacts on social cohesion and politics.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The energy future is renewable
The global progress of renewable energies is primarily a result of the almost unbelievable success in reducing the costs. Wind energy plants on land are still the most cost-effective technology for renewable power generation. But in Germany the costs for solar power have dropped by 80 per cent since 2005. Increasing numbers of economy and financial experts are basing their analyses on photovoltaics now becoming the most cost-effective technology for electricity generation in ever more regions of the world. Electricity from the sun and wind will expand its triumphal progress beyond the power sector into the areas of mobility and heating.
2015
Megatrends in the global energy transition
WWF Germany
More births, fewer deaths and increased overseas migration
The global population is predicted to increase to 8.5 billion in 2030, to 9.7 billion in 2050, and then to 11.2 billion in 210093.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Changing Demographics
The global population is likely to grow from 6.9 billion in 2010 to 8.8 billion by 2040.140 The developing world will account for most of the growth, remaining relatively youthful, in contrast to the developed world and China, which will experience little population growth and undergo significant increases in median age.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence