Trends Identified
A new demographic mix
The global population is aging. After rapid population increases during the 20th century, birth rates have stalled—and even reversed—in many regions. By 2035, one in five people worldwide will be 65 or older.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Demographic shifts
The global population could reach 9.6 billion by 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. In 2000, for the first time, there were more people over the age of 60 in the world than children under five. By 2050, four-fifths of older people will live in developing countries, where 80% of them will have no regular income. Youth unemployment is also growing. In 2012, 15- to 24-year-olds made up 40% of the total unemployed population.
2015
Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs
The Guardian
Individual Empowerment: More Unintended Consequences
The global middle class worries about falling back into poverty. Democratization lags and there is a loss of Western confidence in democracy. Citizenship becomes supplanted by self/group identity, spurred by the Internet.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Science for sale in a global market place
The global free-market economy reigns and intense levels of interaction occur between economic agents across national borders. Thousands of multinational companies constitute powerful international players and drive the ever-faster pace of globalization. New scientific discoveries and technological developments have created whole new industries that power economic development in advanced and a few rapidly emerging economies. Countries have increasingly specialized in supplying only certain products to global markets, but still compete intensely for the investments of foot-loose capitalism. These investments include R&D facilities and funding, which are much more widely dispersed across advanced and emerging economies than in previous times.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Global banking seeks recovery through transformation
The global financial system remains in flux. The uncertain landscape poses both opportunities and risks for financial institutions, alternative asset managers and other enterprises that need funding to meet growth objectives.
2011
Tracking global trends - How six key developments are shaping the business world
EY
The global grid
The global economy is growing ever more connected. Complex flows of capital, goods, information, and people are creating an interlinked network that spans geographies, social groups, and economies in ways that permit large-scale interactions at any moment. This expanding grid is seeding new business models and accelerating the pace of innovation. It also makes destabilizing cycles of volatility more likely.
2010
Mckinsey quarterly, Global forces: An introduction
McKinsey
The disruptive decade
The global economic outlook is certainly enough to test even the strongest enterprises. The eurozone is still mired in recession and the US economy is forecast to expand by just 2.2% this year.1The situation in some of the growth markets is also getting harder, as the slowdown in the BRIC economies demonstrates. While market conditions in many countries are still very difficult, CEOs are more positive about the prognosis than they were last year: 52% think the global economy will stay the same for the next 12 months and only 28% believe it will shrink. In 2012, by contrast, 48% were convinced the global economy would contract.But economic plateaux aren’t exactly grounds for cheer. That’s why short-term confidence about the prospects for revenue growth has continued falling (see Figure 1). CEOs in Western Europe are especially nervous. Only 22% feel very confident they can increase their company’s revenues in the coming 12 months, compared with 53% of CEOs in the Middle East and Latin America.
2013
16th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC
Rising regional disparities at the level of growth, employment and investment in local and regional authorities and connecting infrastructure
The global economic and financial crisis has weakened regional economic and social cohesion in the EU with diverging economic growth, employment and investment.
2014
Challenges at the horizon 2025
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Hunger and food insecurity
The global demand for food is projected to increase by 50 percent by 2030 compared with the current needs in order to meet the increasing demand of the world’s growing population (Maggio, Van Criekinge and Malingreau 2015). The growing global population, along with accelerating urbanization and deteriorating natural resources, implies that there are more people to feed with less water, land and rural labour (FAO 2015). Finding a sustainable solution to providing more food to nearly 9 billion people by 2030 without harming the environment thus poses a great challenge for the 2030 Agenda and SDG 2 on ending hunger in particular.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Gender gap
The gender gaps in education and employment will continue to narrow up to 2030. There will be hardly any difference between men and women in primary education in 2030. By 2030, differences in secondary education will have fallen moderately, with 48% of men and 40% of women completing secondary education. In 2000, only 42% of men and only 32% of women over the age of 15 have had 9 or 10 years of formal education.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants