Trends Identified
Cyber security
Shopping media, and publishing, but also democratic processes such as elections, are moving online. This can only work with a high level of trust. Furthermore, the same holds for many future sectorial infrastructures, processes, and resources, like sewage systems or smart buildings, that will be adaptive, distributed, collaborative, and efficiently controlled. They will depend on ICT and cloud infrastructure and services that must be reliable, predictable and always available, ensuring confidentiality and protection of privacy and being capable to react to cyber threats in real time.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Social Reengineering by Design
Shaking off the business constraints of 19th century platforms. Modern corporations owe their structure and operating models to the birth of the industrial age, where bureaucracy, hierarchy, and specialization of labor were paramount for efficiencies and scale. Clearly defined roles and responsibilities, strict processes, and a “C3” (command, control, and communications) mentality are tenets of the model prescribed by Max Weber, adjusted by Henry Ford, and refined by Michael Hammer. Many businesses have found success in the model. But current business practices constrain individual responsibility, accountability, and capability. Sometimes that’s due to real or perceived boundaries of a specific job. Often it’s because people are simply unable to navigate the organization – find the right information, specialists, or decision makers to grow ideas, build relationships with people with similar interests, or effectively work together in a multinational, matrix reporting environment. Compare that with the intended goals of social business1: to amplify individual passions, experience, and relationships for the benefit of the enterprise – invisible connections and characteristics within the physical manifestation of our organizations. Aligning the interests of the individual with the mission of the business and every other employee, while harnessing universal qualities of individual worth: content, authenticity, integrity, reputation, commitment, and reliability. The real potential of social business involves breaking down barriers that limit human potential and business performance. But it requires fundamentally rethinking how work gets done and how value is created in the Postdigital era – social reengineering of the business.
2013
Tech Trends 2013 Elements of postdigital
Deloitte
Optimize for both social and business value
Several trends are fueling resentment toward business. The climate crisis and other negative externalities are increasingly visible, automation is sparking fear about the future of work, trust in technology is falling, inequality has risen markedly within many countries, and the most successful companies are becoming larger, more visible, and more powerful. As a result, the role of business in society is coming under question, risking the sustainability of the current model of corporate capitalism. Political institutions are not likely to address these concerns effectively in the foreseeable future. Demographics that portend lower global growth, massive public debts that limit investment, tensions resulting from international migration, and a social media landscape that amplifies extreme voices are all likely to continue fueling divisive, populist politics. The rise of China, and the growing US response, challenge the stability of multinational institutions that businesses rely on. In an era characterized by polarization, everything in business will likely become “political.” To keep the game of business going, business needs to be part of the solution. All stakeholders increasingly expect companies to play a more prominent role in addressing social challenges, which will be reinforced as newly adopted metrics and standards make their efforts and impacts more transparent. Leaders need to focus on their companies’ total societal impact—in other words, they need to make sure that their businesses create social as well as economic value. Not only can this increase financial performance in the long run, but it can strengthen the social contract between business and society, ensuring that the relationship is able to endure. Leaders will need to master the art of corporate statesmanship, proactively shaping the critical societal issues that will increasingly change the game of businesses.
2018
Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the Next Decade
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Fractured Identities
Several contributing factors may lead to a fracturing of national identity. In a more connected world, different cultures and groups gain a better understanding of each other, which may lessen internal strife. However, as a consequence of a number of factors (i.e. migration, globalisation, human networks and transparency), citizens may begin to identify themselves differently, and thus create heightened feelings of detachment from the whole or nation state. Individuals may rally around sub-national and supra-national groups, identifying themselves in terms of their city, ethnic nationality, religious or other association. Governments, corporations and non-state actors will find it increasingly difficult to identify a single public opinion on key issues. Affiliation with anti-government or extremist groups, as well as other challenges to national identity, will contribute to state instability and possible unrest.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Low-cost robots may level the playing field
Sensors, artificial intelligence and robots will reshape heavy manufacturing and are likely to have a leveling impact across both developed and developing economies. While developing countries may lose their low-cost labour advantage as advanced economies deploy an affordable AI-enabled robotic workforce, both economies will be able to deploy AI and increase the productivity of their low-skilled workers.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
The end of privacy
Sensors and the artificial intelligence to use and interpret the information gathered by them will become cheaper, better and faster over the next 15 years. Advances in location sensing gives an indication of the trend. Recently, Google announced the goal to have smart phones in 2015 with positional accuracy within 10 centimetres, with sufficient resolution to notice you sitting up from your desk, taking a call or snuggling up to a partner. By 2028, a package that performs like today’s smart phones could cost as little as $2 to produce. At that price, sensing will be nearly ubiquitous. Most people will carry one or several tools that measure ambient audio, location and air quality. Service providers and developers will be watching and listening to understand what’s going on, what’s around us and where we are, all to feed the helper applications that will support us in our daily lives. One’s identity will be increasingly knowable as well. Today, digital chips track our identity and purchasing histories; in the future, face recognition, and gait and gesture recognition will help identify those not digitally broadcasting their presence to the world. Will our current rules and norms about privacy hold up in the face of improved sensing? Is privacy the right to be left alone, or is it the right to prevent others from knowing anything about you?
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Services increasingly customized to the individual
Sensors and artificial intelligence (AI) in print media, signs, and devices will mean that services can be increasingly tailored to the users’ interests by sensing their demographic information and recalling prior choices. Public spaces will be more interactive and able to offer pertinent information without the user navigating tedious menus. Repeat business is ensured by remembering past preferences. AI could remind a hairstylist how a person likes their hair cut, or what toppings they prefer at the burger joint. Means of gathering instant feedback around new experiences will also be useful; at the dentist, a brain-computer interface could verify the patient’s level of comfort. AI tutors could offer students personal attention and “gamify” learning goals (apply game techniques) to encourage progress.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Sensors
Sensing technologies will capture data from our physical world and make it available as digital information. They will continue to become smaller, smarter and, in some cases, self-powering.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Identity Geopolitics
Self-determination around contested borders sparks regional conflict
2018
The Global Risks Report 2018
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Visualization
See, discover and explore deeper insights within large, complex data sets Enterprises move into 2011 with information at the forefront of their agendas. According to a recent Gartner survey, increasing the use of information and analytics is one of the top three business priorities1 . Data volumes continue to explode, as unstructured content proliferates via collaboration, productivity and social channels. And while organizations are making headway on enterprise information management and broad analytics solutions, much potential insight is buried within static reports that are accessible only by a small fraction of the organization2 .
2011
Tech Trends 2011 The natural convergence of business and IT
Deloitte