Trends Identified
Energy systems will respond to low carbon pressures
Since the global energy crisis in the 1970s, technological innovation in the field of renewable energy has grown rapidly. By 2060, renewable energy could replace conventional fuels in four main sectors: power generation, hot water and space heating, transport fuels and rural energy.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Weakening of representative democracy
Since the global economy crashed
in 2008, there has been an erosion
of trust in political institutions and processes. Citizens now place more faith in companies than in their own leaders, and even then they don’t particularly trust the private sector, with the latest Edelman Trust Barometer showing global trust in business at 58% while trust in government has sunk to 44%. As a Global Shaper of the World Economic Forum, this is an issue that resonates with those of my demographic: the world’s youth.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The economy at a crossroads
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy has endured a long period of slow growth. Although there are many signs of recovery, and there has been significant growth in countries such as the USA and Germany, there are many reasons why this growth is vulnerable. Its vulnerability is related to features such as the poor growth of productivity in the West, an ageing population, uncertain prospects in China and the price of oil, which can easily affect the global economy. Even more importantly, the unsustainable use of natural resources and carbon dioxide emissions now enforce much stricter parameters for growth than in the past. Discussions on economics have often raised the question of why growth is an aspiration. Increasing attention has been paid to the fact that the economy should above all be a means to achieve other ends, such as the experience of well-being.
2017
Megatrends 2017
Finland, The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra
Ageing societies
Since life expectancy will continue to increase, the median age will rise and aging of population will even accelerate. Globally, the median age will move up by 5.1 years, from 29 today to 34 in 2030. Between 1990 and 2010, the increase was 4.7 years, up from 24 in 1990.
2011
Trend compendium 2030
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Aging populations
Simultaneously, fertility is falling and the world’s population is graying dramatically (Exhibit 3). Aging has been evident in developed economies for some time, with Japan and Russia seeing their populations decline. But the demographic deficit is now spreading to China and will then sweep across Latin America. For the first time in human history, the planet’s population could plateau in most of the world and shrink in countries such as South Korea, Italy, and Germany.
2014
Mckinsey Quarterly, Management intuition for the next 50 years
McKinsey
Grim Reaping
Simultaneous breadbasket failures threaten sufficiency of global food supply
2018
The Global Risks Report 2018
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Simulation
Simulations will be used more extensively in plant operations to leverage real-time data and mirror the physical world in a virtual model, which can include machines, products, and humans. This will allow operators to test and optimize the machine settings for the next product in line in the virtual world before the physical changeover, thereby driving down machine setup times and increasing quality.
2015
Nine Technologies Transforming Industrial Production
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
The pace of working poverty reduction is slowing
Similarly, the global labour market has seen only weak progress in the area of working poverty. In 2017, extreme working poverty remained widespread, with more than 300 million workers in emerging and developing countries having a per capita household income or consumption of less than US$1.90 (PPP) per day. Overall, progress in reducing working poverty is too slow to keep pace with the growing labour force in developing countries, where the number of people in extreme working poverty is expected to exceed 114 million in 2018, or 40 per cent of all employed people.
2018
World Employment and Social Outlook
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Quantum Cryptography
Signals are transmitted or decrypted by saving the information in polarized light or phase difference of a photon, using the quantum-mechanical characteristics of the photon. The communication system that can fundamentally block the network attack can be developed using the quantum-mechanical characteristics of the signal.
2011
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2011
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Result: Adapting to compete
Short-term cost focus Despite widespread restructurings last year, many businesses remain committed to further cost-cutting. In an indication of the cost pressure they continue to face, 69% of CEOs we surveyed plan cost-reduction initiatives in the next 12 months, compared with the 88% who made cuts over the past year (see figure 3.1). Business leaders are also bracing for continued volatility. ‘Under the current situation, demand changes every day, and enterprises need to adapt rapidly. In fact, wide fluctuations in market conditions have become very normal and we must be ready to respond to a whole range of possible conditions: low market prices, strong demand, or no demand’, Huang Tianwen, President of China-based Sinosteel Corporation, told us.
2010
13th Annual global CEO Survey
PWC