Trends Identified
Managing man and machine
Some worry that globalisation will take away their jobs and they’re even more nervous about the impact of technology. Twenty years ago, there were fewer than 700,000 industrial robots worldwide; today, there are 1.8 million, and the number could soar to 2.6 million by 2019.9 Manufacturing output has simultaneously risen, but employment in the sector has fallen in various advanced economies.10 Technology has been one – although by no means the only – cause of these changes. Robots are now entering the services arena; 3-D printing can be used to make cars and aircraft; biotechnology will change the way we grow crops, produce food and manufacture medicines; and nanotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI) will affect numerous industries. All this could happen much more quickly than we expect. Just look at the advent of self-driving trucks to make deliveries, or Amazon’s new Go store, which uses technology to track what customers put in their shopping carts and bill them automatically when they walk out, eliminating the need for human cashiers.11
2017
20th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
A “me first” world will be harder to steer.
Some of the institutions that since WWII have held the world together — the UN, NATO, G20 and more — are weakening, notes Stan McChrystal, CEO of the McChrystal Group and former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. What comes after is uncertain, he warns, because when you pull the key stone from the arch, things may fall apart that you did not expect. “Our challenge is we're in a ‘me first’ world now, and I mean ‘me first’ by nations, but also ‘me first’ by leaders, ‘me first’ by companies,” he explains. Leaders need to make decisions from a broader perspective and consider interdependencies, McChrystal says. If you go into a negotiation expecting to win everything and leave the other side weakened, he warns, “in many cases, what's happened is the very ecosystem we both depend upon is gone.”
2018
50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead
LinkedIn
Ungoverned Space
Some geographical regions, including weak states and rapidly growing cities, will not be subject to legal, legitimate or conventional administration. Where this occurs, power is likely to be wielded by groups ranging from warlords and armed criminal gangs through to traditional tribal or religious structures. Each region will be unique and engagement by outside powers will require an understanding of the individual context of the region. Some of these regions are likely to subsist through illicit trade and institutionalised criminal activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability. Many are likely to suffer conflict and be a source of instability in neighbouring regions. The risks associated with these spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the international system. Similarly, states that are unwilling or unable to invest sufficiently in maritime security, are unlikely to be able to patrol and enforce their jurisdiction and internationally binding maritime obligations in their territorial seas and economic zones. This may lead to activity stretching from maritime pollution, dumping of hazardous materials, illegal fishing, smuggling (of drugs, people and other forms of contraband) up to piracy attacks. This will be particularly important when an area of sea adjacent to a weak state encompasses key communication nodes, such as the Straits of Malacca or the Bab-el-Mandeb.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Shift in global economic power
Some emerging economies that were growing rapidly are now in recession. Commodity prices have played a considerable role in sending these economies into reverse. Businesses that are investing, or already invested, in emerging economies will need to make a careful assessment of whether and, if so, how they should manage in these more volatile market conditions, where prospects look less certain today than they did even a few years ago.
2017
Megatrends
PWC
High performance computing
Solving complex problems– societal, scientific, industrial- needs trillions of calculations which cannot be done without High Performance Computing (HPC). Some of the examples are: integrated policy assessment, understanding and solving a wide range of problems in life sciences and health, materials research, fusion energy, aircraft fuel efficiency, reduction of aircraft noise, weight reduction of cars, safer transportation, climate and weather prediction, earth observation etc. HPC is of paramount importance for European competitiveness, and nearly every industrial sector depends on supercomputing to be competitive.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Nanotechnology for solar
Solar cells, cheaper now than they have ever been, are poised for significant improvement due largely to nanotechnology. High-efficiency multi-junction solar cells, infrared energy capture and wavelength-splitting designs may increase high-efficiency solar cell performance by 200-300%. Roll-to-roll printing of solar cells on plastic using photosynthetic inks will allow solar panels to be manufactured at significantly lower costs than even today’s low prices.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Next Generation Batteries
Solar and wind power capacity have been growing at double-digit rates, but the sun sets, and the wind can be capricious. Although every year wind farms get larger and solar cells get more efficient, thanks to advances in materials such as perovskites, these renewable sources of energy still satisfy less than five percent of global electricity demand. In many places, renewables are relegated to niche roles because of the lack of an affordable, reliable technology to store the excess energy that they make when conditions are ideal and to release the power onto the grid as demand picks up. Better batteries could solve this problem, enabling emissions-free renewables to grow even faster—and making it easier to bring reliable electricity to the 1.2 billion people who currently live without it. Within the past few years, new kinds of batteries have been demonstrated that deliver high enough capacity to serve whole factories, towns, or even “mini-grids” connecting isolated rural communities. These batteries are based on sodium, aluminium or zinc. They avoid the heavy metals and caustic chemicals used in older lead-acid battery chemistries. And they are more affordable, more scalable, and safer than the lithium batteries currently used in advanced electronics and electric cars. The newer technology is much better suited to support transmissions systems that rely heavily on solar or wind power. Last October, for example, Fluidic Energy announced an agreement with the government of Indonesia to deploy 35 megawatts of solar panel capacity to 500 remote villages, electrifying the homes of 1.7 million people. The system will use Fluidic’s zinc-air batteries to store up to 250 megawatt-hours of energy in order to provide reliable electricity regardless of the weather. In April, the company inked a similar deal with the government of Madagascar to put 100 remote villages there on a solar-powered mini-grid backed by zinc-air batteries. For people who currently have no access to the grid—no light to work by at night, no Internet to mine for information, no power to do the washing or to irrigate the crops—the combination of renewable generation and grid-scale batteries is utterly transformative, a potent antidote for poverty. But better batteries also hold enormous promise for the rich world as it struggles to meet the formidable challenge of removing most carbon emissions from electricity generation within the next few decades—and doing so at the same time that demand for electricity is growing. The ideal battery is not yet in hand. The new technologies have plenty of room for further improvement. But until recently, advances in grid-scale batteries had been few and far between. So it is heartening to see the pace of progress quickening.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Energy Efficiency Software
Software to conserve energy usage is “inherently a real estate technology for no other reason than that real estate consumes two-thirds of the U.S. electricity market,” says Wallace, whose firm focuses on investments in startups that tackle “built world” opportunities. “When you think about saving electricity, the most obvious place to look is buildings.”
2018
The Most Important Tech Trends Of 2018, According To Top VCs
Fast Company
Software to analyse statistical macromolecular markers
Software systems to analyse static (contextual) macromolecular markers will make it possible to carry out more in-depth genetic diagnostics (primarily for hereditary and orphan diseases). The expansion of the market for this product group will contribute to minimising the analytical processes in clinical laboratories and the emergence of specific personalised approaches to diagnostics. New systems which do not require expensive equipment and components could successfully compete with mass spectrometers and other modern analytical techniques.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Cloud
Software as a Service (SaaS) delivered over the Internet
2016
Disruptive technologies barometer
KPMG