Trends Identified

Processes of technological transformation and innovation

Technological innovation could have a very significant impact on the ability of people to meet their needs and to adapt to climate change. The world is becoming hyper-connected. Technological changes and the rapid diffusion of information and communications technologies, particularly among young people, have also broken down many of the old barriers between northern and southern publics. By 2030, it is estimated that 50% of the global population will have internet access. There is also growing appreciation of how technology links to human and environmental systems, escalating conflict or cooperation.

2015

Tomorrow’s world: seven development megatrends challenging NGOs

The Guardian

Uneven growth, increasing inequality

Technological development seems to portend a fundamental change in the relationship between productivity and employment, as shown in Figure 2. This means that the economy can grow without producing many jobs, a trend with particular import in those countries that still have a growing youth population – countries that tend to be at the bottom of the global power scale. In spite of the democratization of at least some forms of technology, there is little reason to expect decreasing inequality. Rather, trends of increasing economic inequality – particularly the growth of the very rich – are likely to continue. Economic growth will be driven by technology that has the potential to increase the power of large corporations. There will be more consolidation of large businesses: a trend well underway, as a quick glance at the airline or any other major industry will show. In wealthy countries, labour-intensive work will increasingly be outsourced to Asia and there will be more automation/robots in sectors where unskilled workers have traditionally found jobs, giving rise to a permanent underclass of unemployment.

2011

Megatrends and the future of humanitarian action

International Review of the Red Cross

Network Growth

Technological advances, and a greater understanding of social, physical and virtual network behaviour, will converge to drive new types of network architecture and applications. These will be increasingly accessed by remote and distributed means. Technology applications such as those supporting social networking will continue to reconfigure and enable new social models and means of interacting. This will raise fundamental issues about privacy, security, legal frameworks and the mechanisms for influence. The rate of growth of hardware development is unlikely to reduce before 2020, and software technology may fail to keep pace with these advances, contributing to an increasing proportion of major project failures. The growth of many networks is unlikely to be governed by top-down planning; such growth is likely to occur in a decentralised manner, often analogous to nature. In order to improve effectiveness and reduce vulnerability increased understanding of network topology and nodal behaviour, including people, will be required. There will be changes in network technology driven by: the need to improve end-to-end security; the requirement to support large numbers of Internet-enabled devices; and the ability to directly convert from optical to wireless connectivity. The evolution of ICT devices will be driven by their increasingly wide range of applications and rising demand by society. Increased Internet penetration across the globe, particularly in heavily populated areas, will influence Internet content and ownership.

2010

Global strategic trends - out to 2040

UK, Ministry of Defence

Technical debt reversal - Lowering the IT debt ceiling

Technical debt is a way to understand the cost of code quality and the impacts of architectural issues. For IT to help drive business innovation, managing technical debt is a necessity. Legacy systems can constrain growth because they may not scale; because they may not be extensible into new scenarios like mobile or analytics; or because underlying performance and reliability issues may put the business at risk. But it’s not just legacy systems: New systems can incur technical debt even before they launch. Organizations should purposely reverse their debt to better support innovation and growth— and revamp their IT delivery models to minimize new debt creation.

2014

Tech trends 2014 - Inspiring Disruption

Deloitte

Seconds saved

Tech helping our lives run more smoothly, saving us seconds on every-day tasks.

2019

Trends 2019

Mindshare

Digital discontent

Tech giants will seek to regain trust with self-regulation and new solutions.

2018

Top Policy Trends of 2018

PWC

Targeted drug delivery components and systems

Targeted drug delivery components and systems will increase the effectiveness of treatments through the targeted conveyance of medicinal substances directly to the target organ (tissue). The use of these systems will help to reduce the level of toxicity and side effects of drugs, as well as making them most cost-effective. In the long-term, there is expected to be “smart” medicines capable of reacting both to internal conditions and to changes in the state of the patient’s body. The systems being developed will find application in treatments for various types of socially significant diseases: oncological, infectious, chronic inflammatory, mental illnesses, hormonal disorders, etc.

2016

Russia 2030: science and technology foresight

Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

People and change: Strategy & Execution

Talent remains a major issue, but results fall short – suggesting competitiveness is hampered while opportunities lie within reach. Two-thirds of CEOs want recruitment, motivation and development improved. But they give HR a low vote of confidence. Leaders and all-around performers prove hardest to find, while organisational structures get in the way of collaborative people. Senior or middle management weaknesses are blamed most often for hindering change programmes. A gap separates vision from execution. Discipline is needed to drive strategies through tactics, structures and results.

2008

11th Annual global CEO Survey

PWC

Shifting geopolitical and economic power

Talent is more mobile than ever, with workers willing to cross borders and cultures to improve their career prospects. Yet a number of geographic, economic, and political developments are blocking the smooth flow of talent to areas of demand, thereby compounding the overall talent shortage.

2017

Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work

Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

Systems to diagnose the state of natural and dangerous man-made systems

Systems to diagnose the state of natural and dangerous man-made systems are critical for the prevention of emergencies. These systems include not only an instrument base, but also a means to process and visualise the results. Their application means that the amount of time required for diagnosis can be reduced and accuracy can be increased, which would greatly reduce the possible damage and increase the safety of the technosphere. The development of systems to diagnose the state of natural and dangerous man­made systems based on innovative equipment will lead to the creation of new markets in the field of instrumentation and software.

2016

Russia 2030: science and technology foresight

Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation