Trends Identified

Energy: 'Returning to a world that relies on muscle power is not an option'

Providing sufficient food, water and energy to allow everyone to lead decent lives is an enormous challenge. Energy is a means, not an end, but a necessary means. With 6.7 billion people on the planet, more than 50% living in large conurbations, and these numbers expected to rise to more than 9 billion and 80% later in the century, returning to a world that relies on human and animal muscle power is not an option. The challenge is to provide sufficient energy while reducing reliance on fossil fuels, which today supply 80% of our energy (in decreasing order of importance, the rest comes from burning biomass and waste, hydro, nuclear and, finally, other renewables, which together contribute less than 1%). Reducing use of fossil fuels is necessary both to avoid serious climate change and in anticipation of a time when scarcity makes them prohibitively expensive. It will be extremely difficult. An International Energy Agency scenario that assumes the implementation of all agreed national policies and announced commitments to save energy and reduce the use of fossil fuels projects a 35% increase in energy consumption in the next 25 years, with fossil fuels up 24%. This is almost entirely due to consumption in developing countries where living standards are, happily, rising and the population is increasing rapidly.This scenario, which assumes major increases in nuclear, hydro and wind power, evidently does not go far enough and will break down if, as many expect, oil production (which is assumed to increase 15%) peaks in much less than 25 years. We need to go much further in reducing demand, through better design and changes in lifestyles, increasing efficiency and improving and deploying all viable alternative energy sources. It won't be cheap. And in the post-fossil-fuel era it won't be sufficient without major contributions from solar energy (necessitating cost reductions and improved energy storage and transmission) and/or nuclear fission (meaning fast breeder and/or thorium reactors when uranium eventually becomes scarce) and/or fusion (which is enormously attractive in principle but won't become a reliable source of energy until at least the middle of the century). Disappointingly, with the present rate of investment in developing and deploying new energy sources, the world will still be powered mainly by fossil fuels in 25 years and will not be prepared to do without them.

2011

20 predictions for the next 25 years

The Guardian

Cyber Intelligence

Protecting vital information assets demands a full-spectrum cyber approach In 2010, security and privacy graduated from IT department concerns. C-suites and boardrooms took notice of highly visible incidents, ranging from malwareinfected motherboards from top-tier PC manufacturers1 , to information theft from a leading cloud provider2 , to the manipulation of the underlying routing tables of the internet, redirecting traffic to Chinese networks3 . At the same time, the regulatory environment around sensitive data protection has become more rigorous, diverse and complex. Organizations are aware of the shifting threat profile and are working to deal with technical barriers as well as sophisticated criminal elements. Incidents are increasingly originating in the trust vector – due to inadvertent employee behavior via the sites they visit, the posts they access on social media sites or even the devices they bring with them to the workplace. A “protect-the-perimeter and respondwhen-attacked” mentality is no longer sufficient.

2011

Tech Trends 2011 The natural convergence of business and IT

Deloitte

Additive manufacturing

Progressively adding material to make a product take shape is an unprecedented approach to manufacturing that warrants new business models and implies significant changes to existing industries. However, this technology must overcome several challenges, both technical and regulatory, if it is to permeate industrial processes on a large scale.

2016

OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016

OECD

The dark side

Progress thrives on openness, and openness almost by definition means exposure. The Internet, for example, has brought critical dangers even as it has unleashed a business and social miracle. Everyday acts, such as connecting your phone to your car via Bluetooth, create vulnerabilities most of us do not yet consciously consider. The costs of fighting cyberthreats are rising into the trillions. Meanwhile, rogue states continue to frustrate the global community, and the strains from combating terrorism are reverberating worldwide. The number of terrorist incidents and casualties remains relatively small but has been rising; global terrorism death levels by the end of 2015 were more than five times higher than they were in 2001.

2017

The global forces inspiring a new narrative of progress

McKinsey

Affordable catalysts for green vehicles

Progress is being made on a promising zero-emission technology, the hydrogen-fed fuel cell. Progress to date has been stymied by the high price of catalysts which contain platinum. However, much progress has been made reducing reliance on this rare and expensive metal, and the latest developments involve catalysts that include no platinum, or in some cases no metal at all.

2017

These are the top 10 emerging technologies of 2017

World Economic Forum (WEF)

New materials for vehicles and infrastructure

Progress in the field of new materials for vehicles and infrastructure is not possible without technological breakthroughs in material engineering. Special attention will be paid to developing composite materials, metal alloys and metal-ceramics with nanoadditives, nanocoated parts to be used in aggressive environments, metal-polymers and polymer composite materials, carbon fibres with enhanced strength, heat and impact resistance, as well as new types of synthetic lubricants. The use of innovative construction materials in the rolling stock of prospective forms of rail, road and water transport will make it possible to reduce fuel expenditure by up to 20%, increase the safety of using structures and constructions during the planned service timeframe, increase their service life, and decrease environmental pollution by almost twofold.

2016

Russia 2030: science and technology foresight

Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Artificial intelligence and machine learning

Progress in AI has accelerated rapidly since around 2010, driven by the confluence of the growing availability of large data sets from commerce, social media, science and other sources; continued improvements in computational power; and the development of better machine learning algorithms and techniques (such as “deep learning”). Systems are now capable of learning how to accomplish a task without having been provided with explicit steps for doing so. Once designed and deployed, the neural network that underpins modern AI can formulate its own rules for interpreting new data and designing solutions, with minimal— or no— human participation.

2018

World Economic And Social Survey 2018: Frontier Technologies For Sustainable Development

United Nations

Brexit will continue to consume the European political scene.

Prime Minister Theresa May is now touring European capitals to attempt to renegotiate her Brexit deal with the EU after she canceled a parliamentary vote, which should have taken place today. Brexit should have been the most predictable geopolitical event of 2019 – we’ve known for two years the clock runs out at the end of March. Instead, it continues to defy predictions. Negotiations will be uncertain to the very last minute, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, warns. “May now needs to be thinking about plan B, since she’s lost so many [members of parliament],” he says. A revamped “Norway plus” deal is becoming the most likely outcome, but the tail risks of a no deal Brexit or a second referendum are also increasing, he adds. “It is really, really hard to come to terms to negotiate something this complicated with one of the most challenging supranational institutions in the world, the EU, and one of the most dysfunctional developed governments in the world today, the U.K.” Writing any more about Brexit at this point would just be handing the stick you’ll beat me with in a day or two.

2018

50 Big Ideas for 2019: What to watch in the year ahead

LinkedIn

Bio-plastics

Primarily driven by non-climate related environmental concerns, notably plastic trash in the ocean, biodegradable plastic is likely to make inroads as the technology develops, with potentially upward of 50% of plastics replaced by non- oil based alternatives by 2040, 8 including potentially with nanotechnology solutions.

2018

The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand

The 2° Investing Initiative

Custom at all Costs - Playing new games with price

Price sensitivity remains a key and determining feature of the consumer landscape, and recent years have seen much price elasticity innovation to appeal to consumers (even the relatively well- off) engaged in a daily battle against unnecessary largesse in the aisles. In 2018 and beyond, anticipate further dismantling of RRP and a growing tendency to permit flexible, time-sensitive, lifestyle- and lifestage- personalised, progressive pricing models to differentiate and entice.

2018

Trending 2018

Foresight Factory