Trends Identified
Medicine gets personal
Prepare for tailor-made treatment
2016
World in 2017
The Economist
Human obsolescence - How quickly will machines sweep man aside?
Predictions about artificial intelligence (AI) have a patchy record. Any greybeard in the field will tell you tales of previous hype cycles in the 1970s and 1980s that crashed when their fabulous promises were not fulfilled. Now, though, times are good again. A spurt of progress in machine learning, a sub-field of AI, has companies piling in. The technology is being used for everything from working out how best to aim advertisements at web-surfers to how to develop selfdriving cars. A landmark was working out how to beat humans at Go, an East Asian strategy game that computers have historically found hard. An AI created by DeepMind, a British subsidiary of Google, beat a human champion of the game in 2015.
2018
The world in 2018
The Economist
Precision agriculture
Precision Agriculture (PA) is a farming management concept. It aims to optimise returns on inputs, including machinery, labour, chemicals, water and energy, whilst potentially reducing environmental impacts and enhancing food safety. The concept is based upon observing, measuring and responding to inter and intrafield variability in crops, or to aspects of animal husbandry. The technology offers opportunity to stimulate co-innovation, strengthen competitiveness and to contribute to a more climate and eco-smart farming. PA is seen as an important route to 'sustainable intensification'.
2015
Preparing the Commission for future opportunities - Foresight network fiches 2030
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Techniques to optimise spatial planning
Practices to optimise land planning in accordance with the landscape structure and the environmental and resource potential of the land imply the embedding of the landscape component in the land planning procedure. They will include GIS algorithms for landscape mapping, the development of generally accepted classifiers for various scale levels, and substantial GIS modelling of key stages of landscape planning: engineering and geological assessments of land, analysis of the capacity (vulnerability, resistance) of landscapes, calculation of ecoservice systems, arrangement of the environmental framework and planning regional tourist and recreational systems.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Carbon dioxide catcher
Practical and affordable ways to capture carbon dioxide from the air can soak up excess greenhouse-gas emissions. Even if we slow carbon dioxide emissions, the warming effect of the greenhouse gas can persist for thousands of years. To prevent a dangerous rise in temperatures, the UN’s climate panel now concludes, the world will need to remove as much as 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere this century. In a surprise finding last summer, Harvard climate scientist David Keith calculated that machines could, in theory, pull this off for less than $100 a ton, through an approach known as direct air capture. That’s an order of magnitude cheaper than earlier estimates that led many scientists to dismiss the technology as far too expensive—though it will still take years for costs to fall to anywhere near that level. But once you capture the carbon, you still need to figure out what to do with it. Carbon Engineering, the Canadian startup Keith cofounded in 2009, plans to expand its pilot plant to ramp up production of its synthetic fuels, using the captured carbon dioxide as a key ingredient. (Bill Gates is an investor in Carbon Engineering.) Zurich-based Climeworks’s direct air capture plant in Italy will produce methane from captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen, while a second plant in Switzerland will sell carbon dioxide to the soft-drinks industry. So will Global Thermostat of New York, which finished constructing its first commercial plant in Alabama last year. Still, if it’s used in synthetic fuels or sodas, the carbon dioxide will mostly end up back in the atmosphere. The ultimate goal is to lock greenhouse gases away forever. Some could be nested within products like carbon fiber, polymers, or concrete, but far more will simply need to be buried underground, a costly job that no business model seems likely to support.In fact, pulling CO2 out of the air is, from an engineering perspective, one of the most difficult and expensive ways of dealing with climate change. But given how slowly we’re reducing emissions, there are no good options left. —James Temple
2019
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 - How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review
The Constituents of Power
Power is the ability to influence others. The constituents of power will continue to comprise a mix of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ elements.229 Hard power is military, economic and some elements of diplomatic activity that can be used to coerce or pay others to change their behaviour. Soft power is the power of attraction based on culture (when it is pleasing to others), values (when they are attractive and consistently practiced), and policies (when they are seen as inclusive and legitimate).230 Soft power is at its most effective when under-pinned by hard power. The degree to which a state or group can combine hard and soft power into an amalgam of effective statecraft will determine their ability to achieve strategic objectives. Some states, especially in Europe, are already reluctant to use the military element of hard power. This trend towards a post- military society is likely to remain strong, but not irreversible. The ability of the Western liberal democracies to utilise power is likely to be challenged by the rise of alternative power bases in Asia, in particular in China and India. Moreover, all elements of power are likely to be wielded by a broader spectrum of actors and agencies, even by organised criminal, terrorist and insurgent groups.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Shift of Global Power
Potential rebalancing of power from the West to other regions could present political and economic challenges to NATO members. While many developed nations have been experiencing slower economic growth, developing nations with faster growth may translate their rising economic power into greater political and military influence. As a consequence, the ability of the international community to integrate rising powers and manage the associated changes peacefully will be decisive for the future. Otherwise, the potential for tension or conflict could be increased in new as well as traditional hotspots, or threaten assured access to the global commons,17 compromising international relations and security.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
Ambient computing - Putting the Internet of Things to work
Possibilities abound from the tremendous growth of embedded sensors and connected devices—in the home, the enterprise, and the world at large. Translating these possibilities into business impact requires focus—purposefully bringing smarter “things” together with analytics, security, data, and integration platforms to make the disparate parts work seamlessly with each other. Ambient computing is the backdrop of sensors, devices, intelligence, and agents that can put the Internet of Things to work.
2015
Tech trends 2015 - The fusion of business and IT
Deloitte
High Efficiency Portable Solar Battery
Portable energy supplies are becoming more and more important due to the scarcity of fossil fuels and the wide use of personal devices. Personal devices, automobiles, and other related industries are expected to produce more than $100 billion market value in 2020.
2010
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2010
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Natural resource availability
Population growth will impact on those resources that are finite. In particular, there will be increasing pressure on water availability, both for drinking and for agriculture. The production of food will be a challenge as the availability of fertile land is limited, a situation that is exacerbated by the degradation of natural ecosystems. There will be increasing demand on finite sources of energy, with fossil fuels having to be extracted from previously unexploited locations. Other rare materials are also being used at rates which are unsustainable.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)