Trends Identified
Natural-resource scarcity
Natural-resource scarcity affecting water, food supplies, energy, and minerals. Also changes in demand and technological innovations.
2016
Why and how latin america should think about the future
theDialogue
Natural gas from unconventional deposits and with unconventional extraction conditions
Natural gas from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions (shale, water-dissolved, gas from other low-permeability formations and deep beds, coal methane, gas hydrates) is unique for its lower mineral content per unit area and higher development costs compared with traditional reservoirs. Unconventional gas resources are estimated at about 950–1200 trillion m3 (excluding gas-hydrates and water-dissolved gas, which increase this value considerably) and are more than double the volume of traditional resources.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Natural disasters
Natural disasters will have increasing impact, partly due to overall increases in the severity and prevalence of severe weather events, but also due changes in the regions and times of year where these events may occur.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Increased Resource Scarcity
Nations need increasing amounts of energy and raw materials to sustain growth and maintain an advantage in the globalised economy. Limited natural resources, supply vulnerabilities, and the uneven distribution of energy and resources increase the potential for conflict between importers, exporters and transit countries, particularly in politically unstable regions. Any nation that holds considerable oil, natural gas reserves or deposits of rare earth elements and other strategic materials43 might leverage its position both for political and economic purposes.
2013
Strategic Foresight Analysis 2013 Report
NATO
US dominance is over. We have a handful of global powers
Nation states will have staged a comeback, writes Robert Muggah, Research Director at the Igarapé Institute. Instead of a single force, a handful of countries – the U.S., Russia, China, Germany, India and Japan chief among them – show semi-imperial tendencies. However, at the same time, the role of the state is threatened by trends including the rise of cities and the spread of online identities,
2016
Eight predictions for 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology focuses on manipulating matter at the atomic and molecular scale, generally at less than 100 nanometres in size. At this size, and using other scientific disciplines, the characteristics of matter can be changed. This will create new and unique properties with profound and diverse applications. Advances in nanotechnology, at the interdisciplinary frontier where physics, chemistry and biology meet, will be a key enabler of technological advance, involving: new additives and coatings; materials and sensor development; and medical treatments and heath diagnosis.
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Nanotechnology
Nanotechnology 26 is a field of enormous promise and big challenges. It is reported to have high potential for increasing innovation for sustainable development in the energy, water, chemical, medical and pharmaceutical industries. 27 Nanoimprint lithography is expected to lead to large-scale manufacturing of nanotechnology products with various positive and negative sustainable development challenges. Nano-products might revolutionize many fields including medicine, electronics, energy and water, as well as food industry in the coming years. At present, there are high expectations about high-performing nanomaterial solar cells and nano-technology applications for decentralized water and wastewater treatment, and desalination. 28 Recently, scientists in Singapore have demonstrated converting CO 2 into methane using light and amine-functionalized titanium dioxide nanoparticles – this would allow storing intermittent solar energy in the form of natural gas which could then be burned in a carbon neutral way. The implications of unethical and uncontrolled use of nanotechnology have created an ongoing debate in the scientific community around concerns about their toxicity and environmental impact (e.g., nanowaste). 29, 30, 31 The OECD and IUCN are currently working with several governments to develop suitable and efficient regulations and policies, and urge a more unified and collaborative approach at all levels to address this potentially hazardous issue through experience- and knowledge-sharing, coordinated research activities, development of guidelines for producers, users and waste-processing facilities 32, 33 and examination of existing guidelines or policies. 34 ANNEXES | 121 As nanotechnology can be damaging to environment and human health, it requires effective policies and frameworks to manage all stages of their life-time, including manufacturing, distribution and use, as well as safe disposal or where possible effective recycling. 35, 36 There are many promising future, inorganic and organic nanomaterials . Examples include perovskites, gold nanoparticles, graphene, carbon nanotubes, carbon nanodots and conducting polymers. Carbon based nanomaterials are very interesting as they rely on abundant carbon and have much potential as high performance substitutes for many materials that are scarce and highly resource intensive in their extraction process. Iron, cobalt, and nickel nanoparticles can be alternatives to scarce metals like platinum, rhodium, and gold for catalysis . For example, layered iron and nickel nanomaterial are a more sustainable alternative to rare-earth “supermagnets”.
2016
Global sustainable development report 2016
United Nations
Sensors to analyse the make-up of various environments
Nanostructured materials and coatings can be applied to sensors to analyse the make-up of various environments so as to increase their responsiveness (by reducing the diffusion time in the sensitive layer) and increase sensitivity (by increasing the specific surface). Nanotechnologies can be used to develop new types of sensitive materials to miniature multi-sensor matrices (sensors) embedded in consumer electronics and clothing, and can also be placed in production and residential buildings.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Nanostructured composite materials with special properties (including conductive, magnetic and optical)
Nanostructured composite materials with special optical properties (including photon crystals) will be particularly in demand by 2030. In the medium term we can expect to see the use of systems with sensory properties, for example, the ability to change the range of intensity of emitted light in conjunction with certain reagents. There may significant improvements in key functional parameters of fibre-optic communications lines providing safely screened multichannel methods to transfer data – speed and quality of the transfer – by using nanostructured materials, on the one hand, with extremely high levels of immunity to interference and, on the other hand, which are not a source of radiation. The application of photon crystal and micro-structured fibres opens up new opportunities to use fibre-optics in physical value sensors.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Nanosensors
Nanosensors, in particular, are set to have a huge impact. They may open the door to the development
of inexpensive, portable devices that can rapidly detect, identify and quantify biological and chemical substances. These may take the form of specific sensing devices, or may simply be features integrated into the next few generations of mobile phones. As such, nanosensors are expected to lead to revolutionary applications, including early disease detection, real-time health monitoring, the early and accurate detection of environmental pollutants and contaminants, and even biological or chemical weapons.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada