Trends Identified
New patterns of inequality
New technologies may disrupt the consensus on what constitutes equal and fair treatment for citizens. The technologies may level the playing field for some, while creating new barriers for others. The public policy questions include timing, efficacy and affordability.
2013
Metascan 3 emerging technologies
Canada, Policy Horizons Canada
Technology
New technologies can be expected to affect future family structures and interrelations in several ways. Firstly, progress in medical technologies has in the past made important contributions to extending people’s lives, and further advances can be expected in the years ahead, pushing life expectancies to new heights and significantly increasing the numbers of elderly. Secondly, information and communication technologies (ICT) have vast potential to enhance the lives of the sick, the infirm and the elderly by increasing or restoring their autonomy, particularly in the home, and enabling them to participate more actively in family life, not least in the role of carer and/or educator. Thirdly, distance working and distance learning are set to increase considerably in the coming years, as broadband availability and usage intensify and more companies, organisations and institutions avail themselves of the benefits offered by these technologies. As take-up increases so too will the opportunities for families to organise their working and learning lives more flexibly in ways that are better aligned to their needs. And finally, over the next 20 years the much anticipated expansion of social networking will almost certainly have consequences – often unexpected – for family interrelationships and interaction, in some cases enhancing them, in others perhaps hampering them.
2011
The Future of Families to 2030
OECD
Artificial Intelligence
New technologies are focused on augmenting the processing capabilities of machines for human-like intelligence (e.g., robotics, natural-language processing, speech recognition).
2017
Beyond the Noise- The Megatrends of Tomorrow’s World
Deloitte
Smooth-talking AI assistants
New techniques that capture semantic relationships between words are making machines better at understanding natural language. We’re used to AI assistants—Alexa playing music in the living room, Siri setting alarms on your phone—but they haven’t really lived up to their alleged smarts. They were supposed to have simplified our lives, but they’ve barely made a dent. They recognize only a narrow range of directives and are easily tripped up by deviations. But some recent advances are about to expand your digital assistant’s repertoire. In June 2018, researchers at OpenAI developed a technique that trains an AI on unlabeled text to avoid the expense and time of categorizing and tagging all the data manually. A few months later, a team at Google unveiled a system called BERT that learned how to predict missing words by studying millions of sentences. In a multiple-choice test, it did as well as humans at filling in gaps. These improvements, coupled with better speech synthesis, are letting us move from giving AI assistants simple commands to having conversations with them. They’ll be able to deal with daily minutiae like taking meeting notes, finding information, or shopping online. Some are already here. Google Duplex, the eerily human-like upgrade of Google Assistant, can pick up your calls to screen for spammers and telemarketers. It can also make calls for you to schedule restaurant reservations or salon appointments. In China, consumers are getting used to Alibaba’s AliMe, which coordinates package deliveries over the phone and haggles about the price of goods over chat. But while AI programs have gotten better at figuring out what you want, they still can’t understand a sentence. Lines are scripted or generated statistically, reflecting how hard it is to imbue machines with true language understanding. Once we cross that hurdle, we’ll see yet another evolution, perhaps from logistics coordinator to babysitter, teacher—or even friend? —Karen Hao
2019
10 Breakthrough Technologies 2019 - How we’ll invent the future, by Bill Gates
MIT Technology Review
Systems to provide automated control of the state of vehicles and infrastructure
New technical methods and automated systems to monitor the state of vehicles and infrastructure and oversee their maintenance and repair will make it possible to generate integrated analytical assessments of the level of technological safety and to create a single multi-level vehicle control system. By optimising repair and re-construction schedules for infrastructure it will become possible to reduce the risks associated with operating transport systems without appreciably worsening the operating conditions of traffic flows. The introduction of new products can help to significantly increase the level of safety on transport, optimise road traffic and reduce the degree of wear on key resources. Knowledge of the operations of transport systems and infrastructure in difficult climatic and geological conditions, including Arctic and sub-Arctic zones, could be a competitive advantage for Russian workers and manufacturers.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
New Energy Technology
New sources of power generation will become commercially available and viable before 2040. Out to 2020, while advances may be evolutionary rather than revolutionary, the efficient use and management of power will increasingly be a key driver, particularly for the design of new devices. Hybridisation, along with fuel additives and smart design, will improve the energy efficiency of engines. Smart, conformal designs for low-power systems for efficient charge recovery, and the use of power scavenging techniques, will be examples of potential innovation. For short periods of operation, batteries are likely to remain the preferred power source; however, as energy demands increase, improved fuel cells adapted to suit the operating environment may become the preferred option for longer operations. Nonetheless, demand for traditional lithium-ion type batteries, will increase due to an increased uptake of hybrid and electric vehicles
2010
Global strategic trends - out to 2040
UK, Ministry of Defence
Elements electronics based on memristors
New opportunities to create neuromorphic computer systems with a revolutionary new architecture will be opened up by memristor-based electronics. This drastically increases their performance when solving problems which have been poorly programmed on classic computers, and significantly reduces their energy consumption. In the field of “smart” electronics, it may be possible to make controlled changes to the electrical resistance of functional materials with long-term storage of the specified status, which will make it possible to use these structures as equivalents to synapses when setting up the hardware for neural networks and building neuromorphic computer systems.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
New materials to stimulate regeneration, activity and cytodifferentiation in the body
New materials to stimulate the regeneration, activity and differentiation of cells in the body offer the potential to cure pathologies in the musculoskeletal system, wounds of various aetiology, cardiovascular diseases, etc. Innovative techniques are based on bioengineering “grafting” technologies in this field and are required, with the necessary speed, to regenerate cells and to subsequently form various tissues and organs directly in the body on the basis of those cells. At the end of the prescribed timeframe, the biodegradable polymer materials leave the body, breaking down with natural metabolic products. New technologies will help to speed up the healing of all types of tissue, prevent the formation of adhesions, and reduce the number of complications after operations, thus providing a significant increase in patients’ quality of life.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Two-Dimensional Materials
New materials can change the world. There is a reason we talk about the Bronze Age and the Iron Age. Concrete, stainless steel, and silicon made the modern era possible. Now a new class of materials, each consisting of a single layer of atoms, are emerging, with far-reaching potential. Known as two-dimensional materials, this class has grown within the past few years to include lattice-like layers of carbon (graphene), boron (borophene) and hexagonal boron nitride (aka white graphene), germanium (germanene), silicon (silicene), phosphorous (phosphorene) and tin (stanene). More 2-D materials have been shown theoretically possible but not yet synthesized, such as graphyne from carbon. Each has exciting properties, and the various 2-D substances can be combined like Lego bricks to build still more new materials. This revolution in monolayers started in 2004 when two scientists famously created 2-D graphene using Scotch tape—probably the first time that Nobel-prize-winning science has been done using a tool found in kindergarten classrooms. Graphene is stronger than steel, harder than diamond, lighter than almost anything, transparent, flexible, and an ultrafast electrical conductor. It is also impervious to most substances except water vapor, which flows freely through its molecular mesh. Initially more costly than gold, graphene has tumbled in price thanks to improved production technologies. Hexagonal boron nitride is now also commercially available and set to follow a similar trajectory. Graphene has become cheap enough to incorporate it in water filters, which could make desalination and waste-water treatment far more affordable. As the cost continues to fall, graphene could be added to road paving mixtures or concrete to clean up urban air—on top of its other strengths, the stuff absorbs carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides from the atmosphere. Other 2-D materials will probably follow the trajectory that graphene has, simultaneously finding use in high-volume applications as the cost falls, and in high-value products like electronics as technologists work out ways to exploit their unique properties. Graphene, for example, has been used to make flexible sensors that can been sewn into garments—or now actually 3-D printed directly into fabrics using new additive manufacturing techniques. When added to polymers, graphene can yield stronger yet lighter airplane wings and bicycle tires. Hexagonal boron nitride has been combined with graphene and boron nitride to improve lithium-ion batteries and supercapacitors. By packing more energy into smaller volumes, the materials can reduce charging times, extend battery life, and lower weight and waste for everything from smart phones to electric vehicles. Whenever new materials enter the environment, toxicity is always a concern. It’s smart to be cautious and to keep an eye out for problems. Ten years of research into the toxicology of graphene has, so far, yielded nothing that raises any concerns over its effects on health or the environment. But studies continue. The invention of 2-D materials has created a new box of powerful tools for technologists. Scientists and engineers are excitedly mixing and matching these ultrathin compounds—each with unique optical, mechanical and electrical properties—to produce tailored materials optimised for a wide range of functions. Steel and silicon, the foundations of 20th-century industrialization, look clumsy and crude by comparison.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
New materials and biotech
New materials and biotech, which include advanced materials, such as new lightweight materials, and next-generation genomics.
2019
Tech for good
McKinsey