Trends Identified
Reviewing the legality of cyber weapons, means and methods of warfare
One of the most remarkable phenomena in the realm of modern warfare in recent decades has been the emergence of cyberspace as a new warfighting domain. Cyberspace is now commonly depicted as the fifth warfighting domain, along with land, sea, air and space. The conduct of military operations in this domain, however, has few similarities with the other four. The question of whether existing rules of international humanitarian law (IHL) are adequate for regulating the conduct of cyber-operations has become a matter of contention among the community of international law scholars. This chapter explores the implications of this debate for the conduct of Article 36 reviews. It translates the product of academic discourse into concrete legal advice for Article 36 review practitioners and military lawyers advising commanders on the impact of international law on cyber-operations.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Applied superconductivity
One of the most promising innovative directions to increase energy efficiency is applied superconductivity technology, namely the integrated development and establishment of production of a wide range of electro-technical equipment based on the latest technologies with the use of unique materials – high-temperature superconductors. In the commercial energy sector, the use of superconductors is particularly attractive in terms of creating cables and power engineering and electricity storage (inductive capacitors). Superconductive cables, on account of their extremely low energy loss, are able to display a higher level of energy-efficiency in networks, creating fundamentally new conditions to manage generation facilities and to export electricity. Superconductive energy storage technologies will smooth out peak loads and align voltage and current, offsetting electricity supply in the event of network incidents, which will make it possible to negate the varying nature of alternative generation. Electro-technical equipment and power units based on superconductivity are designed to increase efficiency on rail and sea transport, in the energy sector, in the oil and gas industry, in the manufacturing sector, and others. Maximum results can be obtained by combining these with smart grid technologies. Russian developments in high-temperature superconductors are at various stages, from basic research to operational testing of prototypes of various forms of superconductor equipment. Forecasts of the Russian superconductor electrical equipment market are very optimistic and reflect its high potential and opportunities for long term growth. It is expected that the production volumes of various types of equipment (storage (5–20 MJ), current limiters (3–35 kW), generators (5–35 MW), electric motors (5–35 MW), synchronous compensators (5–35 MW), cables (1 km, 20 kW, 2 kA), transformers, etc.) will account for 36.5 billion roubles by 2020.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Screenless Display
One of the more frustrating aspects of modern communications technology is that, as devices have miniaturized, they have become more difficult to interact with – no one would type out a novel on a smartphone, for example. The lack of space on screen-based displays provides a clear opportunity for screenless displays to fill the gap. Full-sized keyboards can already be projected onto a surface for users to interact with, without concern over whether it will fit into their pocket. Perhaps evoking memories of the early Star Wars films, holographic images can now be generated in three dimensions; in 2013, MIT’s Media Lab reported a prototype inexpensive holographic colour video display with the resolution of a standard TV. Screenless display may also be achieved by projecting images directly onto a person’s retina, not only avoiding the need for weighty hardware, but also promising to safeguard privacy by allowing people to interact with computers without others sharing the same view. By January 2014, one start-up company had already raised a substantial sum via Kickstarter with the aim of commercializing a personal gaming and cinema device using retinal display. In the longer term, technology may allow synaptic interfaces that bypass the eye altogether, transmitting “visual” information directly to the brain. This field saw rapid progress in 2013 and appears set for imminent breakthroughs of scalable deployment of screenless display. Various companies have made significant breakthroughs in the field, including virtual reality headsets, bionic contact lenses, the development of mobile phones for the elderly and partially blind people, and hologram-like videos without the need for moving parts or glasses.
2014
Top 10 emerging technologies for 2014
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Closed nuclear fuel cycle with fast neutron reactors
One of the limitations for modern nuclear energy with an open nuclear fuel cycle and thermal neutron reactors is the significant and ever growing amount of stored irradiated nuclear fuel. Moreover, these technologies do not make it fully possible to use the energy stored in nuclear energy resources, as more than 90% of extracted uranium remains in enrichment plant heaps, and the effectiveness of the fuel’s use in hot water reactors is low. An integrated solution to existing problems is possible by concentrating efforts and resources to develop next- generation nuclear energy based on fast neutron reactors with a closed nuclear fuel cycle. This is a set of connected technological solutions, capable of guaranteeing extended reproduction of fissile nuclear material together with generating electricity while minimizing radioactive load on the environment across all technological conversion stages and, thus, having a revolutionary impact on the global nuclear energy market. A further benefit of the closed nuclear fuel cycle is the ability to use fast neutron reactors to solve the historically inherited problem of accumulating nuclear waste. This innovative technology is fundamentally different from existing ones due to the lack of the two key expensive technological conversion processes – uranium extraction and enrichment – and the existence of a technologically new conversion process – the multifold refabrication of the nuclear fuel which is combined with the immobilisation and final isolation of the high-level radioactive waste.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Self-healing materials
One of the defining characteristics of living organisms is their inherent ability to repair physical damage. A growing trend in biomimicry is the creation of non-living structural materials that also have the capacity to heal themselves when cut, torn or cracked. Self-healing materials which can repair damage without external human intervention could give manufactured goods longer lifetimes and reduce the demand for raw materials, as well as improving the inherent safety of materials used in construction or to form the bodies of aircraft.
2013
The top 10 emerging technologies for 2013
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The end of the 19th-century grid
One of the biggest changes we will see (or at least have made substantial progress towards) by 2020 is global electrification. In the US and Europe, most people take electricity for granted. But that is not the case in many parts of Latin America, Africa and Asia. More than 1.3 billion people still aren’t connected to the grid. More than 1.5 billion still don’t have regular access to electric light: they use oil lamps, which are a safety hazard. Even where the grid exists, it’s fragile: power blackouts are a major problem in many megacities. Power theft also plagues Brazil, India and South Africa. Safe, reliable power will have a transformative effect on these countries. Not only will there be near-term benefits such as greater productivity, but we will see long-term quantum leaps in educational achievement, healthcare and quality of life. These communities don’t have power now because our 19th-century grid is too expensive. The advent of new technologies is changing both the business models and use-case scenarios to make it possible. In a few years, the world will finally, truly, be wired.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Open AI Ecosystem
One of the advantages that CEOs and celebrities have over ordinary workers is that they don’t need to spend much time handling the uninteresting, time-consuming aspects of daily life: scheduling appointments, making travel plans, searching for the information they want. The elite have PAs, personal assistants who handle such things. But soon— maybe even this year—most of us will be able to afford this luxury for the price of few lattes a month, thanks to the emergence of an open AI ecosystem. AI here refers, of course, to artificial intelligence. Apple’s Siri, Microsoft’s Cortana, Google’s OK Google, and Amazon’s Echo services are nifty in the way that they extract questions from speech using natural-language processing and then do a limited set of useful things, such as look for a restaurant, get driving directions, find an open slot for a meeting, or run a simple web search. But too often their response to a request for help is “Sorry, I don’t know about that” or “here’s what I found on the web.” You would never confuse these digital assistants for a human PA. Moreover, these systems are proprietary and hard for entrepreneurs to extend with new features. But over the past several years, several pieces of emerging technology have linked together in ways that make it easier to build far more powerful, human-like digital assistants— that is, into an open AI ecosystem. This ecosystem connects not only to our mobile devices and computers— and through them to our messages, contacts, finances, calendars and work files—but also to the thermostat in the bedroom, the scale in the bathroom, the bracelet on the wrist, even the car in the driveway. The interconnection of the Internet with the Internet of Things and your own personal data, all instantly available almost anywhere via spoken conversations with an AI, could unlock higher productivity and better health and happiness for millions of people within the next few years. By pooling anonymized health data and providing personalized health advice to individuals, such systems should lead to substantial improvements in health and reductions in the costs of health care. Applications of AI to financial services could reduce unintentional errors, as well as intentional (fraudulent) ones—offering new layers of protection to an aging population. The secret ingredient in this technology that has been largely lacking to date is context. Up to now, machines have been largely oblivious to the details of our work, our bodies, our lives. A human PA knows when you are interruptible, stressed, bored, tired or hungry. The PA knows who and what is important to you, and also what you would prefer to avoid. AI systems are gaining the ability to acquire and interpret contextual cues so that they can gain these skills as well. Although initially these AI assistants will not outperform the human variety, they will be useful—and roughly a thousand times less expensive. Various companies have already demonstrated AI systems that have some of these capabilities. Microsoft Research built one that knows when you are too busy to take a call (and which calls should ring through regardless) and that automatically schedules meetings at times you would likely choose yourself. Other companies such as Angel.ai have introduced services that search for flights that suit your preferences and constraints based on simple plain-English requests. Just as discretion and loyalty are prized among human PAs, digital versions will succeed only to the extent that we trust them with our security and privacy. Vendors will no doubt try to use such systems to influence our purchase choices. We will have to decide when and whether we are comfortable with that.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Automating trust
One high potential area for blockchain, when used in combination with technologies like AI or IoT, is its ability to automate trust among users within a network. For example, IoT enables the tracking of a pallet of food from the farm to the warehouse to the store. The sensors can verify the entire supply chain — not only to know where a shipment is, for example, but also the recording conditions of each leg of the shipment so you know if conditions become too hot, too cold, or too humid. IoT and blockchain create an immutable supply chain, enabling buyers to trust they are getting an authentic product. They can also be used to verify if a product containing hazardous materials has been correctly and safely disposed.
2017
The Essential Eight - Your guide to the emerging technologies revolutionizing business now
PWC
Assistive robot suit
Once the disabled or the elderly to wear a robot suit which is similar to the body frame, the suit can detect neuronal signal from the muscle and operate. The suit allows the user to move freely and move heavy objects as it gives more strength. With the same principle, the suit enables the elderly or the disabled to expand their work environment at production spots and work.
2013
KISTEP 10 Emerging Technologies 2013
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Decrypting Crypto-Consumers
On October 31th, 2008, the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto published the paper Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, which would lay the groundwork for the world’s most talked about and prominent novel currency project since the creation of the euro some twenty years ago. Growing from a little-known cryptography mailing list, a discreetly registered domain, and a dedicated forum set up by its founder, Bitcoin soon inspired a huge growth in traders, platform and brokers, trade media, fans churning out memes, as well as commercial endeavors from cash brokers to exchanges, pubs to candy stores. This rapid expansion also meant that the user and consumer base has been difficult to track and segment. The crypto landscape is awash with data, but consumer data has been more difficult to come by for a variety of reasons. At first the audience was very small, and few cryptocurrency holders would be caught in the dragnet of national surveys – some of which were still based on calling landlines when Bitcoin was launched – and others relied on data volunteered by community members based on straw polls and student surveys. Self-selection also favored outspoken crypto activists, rather than silent investors. It’s the latter group our research has been able to capture. By including cryptocurrency into our global internet user survey, we’ve been able to expand the dragnet to almost 90,000 respondents – and picked up cryptocurrency holders in the course of general fieldwork, without targeting them. This means we have a sample of cryptocurrency holders with more than 25,000 data points against them, which has also served as a benchmark for our subsequent targeted poll.
2019
Trends 19
GlobalWebIndex