Trends Identified
Internet infrastructure The backbone of our communications
The backbone ‘hard’ infrastructure that supports the ow of data across space will be under pressure to cope with tra c demands.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
The next billion consumers
The rising wealth of emerging economies will continue to bring a broader range of consumption goods to huge numbers of new consumers. More of them will cross the critical annual household income threshold of $5,000, planting them in the ranks of the “global middle class” and enabling more discretionary spending. Although still considerably poorer than the middle-class consumers in the advanced economies, their vast numbers and increasing ability to devote more income to a broader range of goods and services will create an enormous new market. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $10 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Old infrastructure, new investments
In the advanced economies, renewed economic vitality will require refurbishing and expanding critical infrastructure, much of which was built more than a half-century ago. But with public finances under strain, the job will increasingly present opportunities for public-private partnerships. In emerging economies, continued infrastructure development will be needed to accommodate growth and lay a foundation for future expansion. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $1 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Militarization following industrialization
As economic power tilts toward Asia, political and military power will shift as well. In China, where defense spending has trended upward in recent years, both in dollar terms and as a proportion of GDP. The stepped up spending is prompting China’s neighbors to respond with bigger defense budgets, increasing the risk of conflict over shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Growing output of primary inputs
Growing demand among more nations for oil and natural gas, grains and proteins, fresh water and extracted ores, such as copper, aluminum and rare earth metals, will create price volatility and transient shortages of a few of these commodities over the coming decade. Investment in conservation measures, alternative supplies and technologies will increase in some areas, though new fossil fuel sources will reduce economic incentives to invest in alternative energy. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $3 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Developing human capital
The massive population shift from farm to factory has altered the social landscape in the fast-growing emerging economies, but social infrastructure has not kept pace. Broadening access to education and improving its quality over the coming decade will be crucial if those economies will successfully navigate the transition to a higher value-added service and technology-based economy. Likewise, building a basic healthcare delivery system and weaving a stronger social safety net will absorb a far higher proportion of investment than in the past. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $2 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Keeping the wealthy healthy
Aging populations in the advanced economies, more and better medical treatments, and changes in payment systems to make healthcare spending more efficient will spur innovation and reform. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $4 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Everything the same, but nicer
Innovation will increasingly come in new forms beyond novel technologies like iPads and Twitter. Look for businesses to invest more heavily in “soft innovations,” which will offer affluent customers premium products and services as substitutes for common consumer purchases, better products commanding higher prices and a greater variety of niche products. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $5 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Prepping for the next big thing
Innovations tend to cluster in waves, and five potential platform technologies—nanotechnology, genomics, artificial intelligence, robotics and ubiquitous connectivity— show promise of flowering over the coming decade. In many cases, developments across technologies will be mutually reinforcing. For example, advances in nanotechnology will enable the enhanced computational power necessary for breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 2020: $1 trillion.
2011
The great eight: Trillion-dollar growth trends to 2020
Bain and Company
Aging populations
The baby boomer generation powered a long but temporary surge in labor force growth. Now this group is moving into retirement, and labor force growth is slowing. That, in turn, imperils growth.
2018
Labor 2030: The Collision of Demographics, Automation and Inequality
Bain and Company