Trends Identified
New customer strategies
Boundaries between companies and consumers are fading as people, informed and enabled by the internet, become more aware and demanding. They want personalized offerings and will collaborate with companies to help develop the products and services they desire.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
A new demographic mix
The global population is aging. After rapid population increases during the 20th century, birth rates have stalled—and even reversed—in many regions. By 2035, one in five people worldwide will be 65 or older.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Skill imbalances
The skills and capabilities businesses require are rapidly evolving. Even as automation may yield a surplus of unskilled and semiskilled labor, the digitalization of products and services is creating an enormous demand for skilled digital talent. By 2020, 30% of tech jobs will go unfilled because of talent shortages.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Shifting geopolitical and economic power
Talent is more mobile than ever, with workers willing to cross borders and cultures to improve their career prospects. Yet a number of geographic, economic, and political developments are blocking the smooth flow of talent to areas of demand, thereby compounding the overall talent shortage.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Diversity and inclusion
As values change across the business landscape, diversity and inclusion, often seen as “nice to have,” are increasingly becoming a necessity—and for good reason. The business case has never been stronger, as studies show that diverse teams are much more likely to foster employee engagement and improve business performance. Diverse teams are 13 times more likely to engage employees than nondiverse teams
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Individualism and entrepreneurship
Independence is becoming the dominant motivator for a large section of the population, particularly for millennials (born from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s) and Gen-Zers (born in the mid- to late 1990s and after). These younger people tend to get bored doing the same kind of work for long stretches, and they are especially interested in independent careers. Empowered by digital platforms and ecosystems, many are choosing entrepreneurship and self-employment over traditional corporate employment. By 2020, freelancers will constitute 50% of the workforce
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Well-being and purpose
Millennials and Gen-Zers, who are taking on an ever-increasing role in the workplace, want more from their jobs than just competitive compensation: they are looking for well-being. In a recent survey, 62% of millennials said they want a career with social impact, and 53% said they will work harder to increase that impact. Organizations driven by purpose and values outperform their competitors in revenue, profit and stock performance.
2017
Twelve Forces That Will Radically Change How Organizations Work
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Master the new logic of competition
Internet and mobile technology ushered in the information age and profoundly affected technology-intensive and consumer-facing industries such as electronics, communications, entertainment, and retail. But the emerging wave of technology—including sensors, the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence—will turn every business into an information business. The combination of an exponential increase in data, better tools to mine insights from that data, and a fast-changing business environment means that companies will increasingly need to, and be able to, compete on the rate of learning. Scale will take on a new significance in the learning economy. Instead of the “economies of scale” that today’s leaders grew up with—based on a predictable reduction of marginal production costs across a relatively uniform offering—tomorrow’s leaders will pursue “economies of learning,” based on identifying and fulfilling each customer’s changing needs by leveraging data and technology. The arenas of competition will also look different in the 2020s, requiring new perspectives and capabilities. The familiar picture of a small number of companies producing a common end product and competing within well-defined industry boundaries will be replaced by one where competition and collaboration occur within and between ecosystems. Because ecosystems are fluid and dynamic, and not perfectly controllable even by the orchestrator, companies will need to be much more externally oriented, to deploy influence indirectly through platforms and marketplaces, and to coevolve with ecosystem partners. Orchestrators of ecosystems can leverage the assets of other participants, and ecosystem-based competition tends to have a winner-take-all nature. These factors are already causing rapidly rising valuations relative to tangible assets for the top companies, as well as an increasing gap between the profitability of high and low performers. But there is not yet any playbook for how to harness this premium: practice is racing ahead of theory, and pioneers who can crack the code on ecosystems will be greatly advantaged. Finally, companies will increasingly compete on resilience. Accelerating technological change, political gridlock, a shifting geopolitical power map, the increased scrutiny of business, and the polarization of society all point to an era of protracted uncertainty, in which corporate life cycles are likely to continue shrinking. Companies will therefore need to worry not only about the competitiveness of their immediate game but also about the durability of that game and their ability to weather unanticipated shocks. Most of today’s incumbents—designed for relatively stable, classical business environments—are not well adapted for this more dynamic environment. Therefore, today’s leaders need to fundamentally reinvent the organizational model in order to become future winners.
2018
Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the Next Decade
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Design the organization of the future
Big data and deep learning have transformed our ability to learn, and the next generation of technologies will undoubtedly bring even more possibilities. History has shown, however, that applying new technologies to existing processes and structures generally yields only incremental gains. To unlock the learning potential of new technologies, leaders need to reinvent the enterprise as a next-generation learning organization.Merely applying AI to individual process steps is not enough: To increase the ability of organizations to learn in aggregate, they must build integrated learning loops that gather information from data ecosystems, continuously derive insights using machine learning, and act on those insights autonomously, all at the speed of algorithms rather than the speed of human hierarchies. But organizations must not learn only on algorithmic timescales—they must also better understand and position themselves for the slow-moving forces, such as social and political shifts, that are increasingly transforming business. To learn on multiple timescales, leaders will need to design organizations that synergistically combine humans and machines. Algorithms should be trusted to recognize patterns in data and act on them autonomously, while humans should focus on higher-order tasks like validating algorithms, imagining new possibilities, and designing and updating the hybrid “human + machine” organization itself. This division of labor also requires rethinking human–machine interfaces so that humans can trust and productively interact with machines. Collectively, these imperatives demand a massive evolution of organizational capabilities and the creation of new “learning contracts” between employees and enterprises. Many of these principles are already being implemented in isolated domains, such as the operations of digital marketplaces. But to win the ’20s, the same principles must be applied to all parts of the organization in order to create a “self-tuning enterprise” that constantly learns and adapts to the environment. Such organizations must be designed with flexible backbone systems, evolving business models, and, above all, a new model of management—one based on biological principles such as experimentation and co-evolution, rather than traditional top-down decision making and slow cycle planning. Management needs to shift its emphasis from designing hardwired structures and procedures to orchestrating flexible and dynamic systems.
2018
Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the Next Decade
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Apply the science of organizational change
Reinventing organizations to compete in the 2020s will not be a trivial task. Whether because of risk aversion or complacency stemming from today’s increasingly concentrated industries and elevated profitability levels, leading companies may be understandably reluctant to unleash fundamental change preemptively. But our research shows that the single biggest factor influencing the success of major change programs is how early they are initiated. It is therefore critical to create a sense of urgency within the organization to ensure that everyone truly understands the need for change. Even for companies that are committed to such transformation, it can be a risky endeavor: our research shows that most large-scale change efforts fail. Therefore, leaders need to employ evidence-based transformation—understanding empirically what works and why, rather than relying on plausible assertions and rules of thumb. In an era when many powerful forces are revolutionizing how organizations function, building repeatable transformation capabilities will be more important than ever. Leaders also need to de-average and differentiate their approaches to change. Large-scale transformation programs comprise multiple change challenges, from exploring new fields and approaches, to adaptively refining new models, to implementing structured change with clear objectives and means. Leaders will need to diversify their approaches to change accordingly, moving beyond the monolithic programs centered only on PMOs and Gantt charts. By adopting continuous change as the default, episodic change programs will give way to change as an ongoing operating imperative.
2018
Winning the ’20s: A Leadership Agenda for the Next Decade
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)