Trends Identified
Government
Due to massive public debt governments are recognising that they can no longer afford generous pensions and the European Union Commission has said that the average retirement age across the 27 member countries needs to rise from 60 today to 70 by 2060. Governments are rapidly turning to the ‘Cloud’ to service the needs of their citizens and today EU citizens can access 82 percent of basic public services online. The working population will start shrinking from 2012 and unless a dramatic change in migration policy is forthcoming, companies will have to deal with the consequences of older workers and fewer workers in the labour pool in the EU. The EU is setting policies towards car-free cities in Europe by 2050. This could be a boom or bust strategy. On the one-hand it may lead to innovation and the rise of cleantech and on the other it may put off investment and inward migration of companies. We will see.
2012
The future
Steria
Reviewing the legality of cyber weapons, means and methods of warfare
One of the most remarkable phenomena in the realm of modern warfare in recent decades has been the emergence of cyberspace as a new warfighting domain. Cyberspace is now commonly depicted as the fifth warfighting domain, along with land, sea, air and space. The conduct of military operations in this domain, however, has few similarities with the other four. The question of whether existing rules of international humanitarian law (IHL) are adequate for regulating the conduct of cyber-operations has become a matter of contention among the community of international law scholars. This chapter explores the implications of this debate for the conduct of Article 36 reviews. It translates the product of academic discourse into concrete legal advice for Article 36 review practitioners and military lawyers advising commanders on the impact of international law on cyber-operations.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of weapons, means and methods of warfare with autonomous capabilities
Artificial intelligence and robotics have made great strides in the past three decades. One major outcome of innovation in these fields has been the remarkable progress of autonomy in weapon systems and the networks in which they are embedded. The advance of autonomy is a notable technological development in the sense that it fundamentally changes the way the military can field forces and make decisions, lethal or otherwise, on the battlefield. This chapter explores the implications of this development for the conduct of Article 36 reviews.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of military human enhancement technologies
A third emerging technology area that is expected to shape the future of warfare is the enhancement of military personnel, known as ‘military human enhancement’ (MHE). MHE technologies are not stand-alone weapons or means of warfare, but are tech- nologies designed to improve human warfighting capabilities. It is therefore not obvi- ous whether, and if so how, the requirements of Article 36 apply in this area.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Sharing economy
Car- and bike-sharing programs, as well as the revolution in the nature of taxi services is set to reduce the purchase of private vehicles and by extension likely the consumption of oil related to passenger vehicles . Estimates by McKinsey suggest that the sharing economy is likely to reduce car sales by around 10 % over the next 25 years. The effect on oil demand in 2040 of this trend is somewhat uncertain, related to both the speed of adoption of the sharing economy and the actual replacement of oil – fueled vehicles with alternatives.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
3D printing
3D printing is set to have potentially significant impacts on the logistics sector, driving more local production of goods and potentially reducing the transportation of intermediate goods across long distances. 4 According to Integracore, around 25 % of the freight, 41 % of the air cargo sector, and 37 % of the shipping sector may be at risk in the context of 3D printing. In estimating the implications for oil demand, there are data challenges related to the share that cargo makes up in the aviation and shipping sector respectively.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Autonomous vehicles
Autonomous driving is another area of significant disruption. Autonomous vehicles are already tested on the road, with a significant degree of automation built into the Tesla software. Autonomous driving could thus be associated with limited lock-in effect as vehicles simply receive ‘softwareupdates’ as the technology matures. The range of estimates on the impact of autonomous vehicles is wide, from rebound effects actually increasing oil demand to positive estimates suggesting up to a 40% efficiency gain across all road transport.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Ai in supply chains
Artificial intelligence will help significantly improve the efficiencies of supply chains, reducing waste both in the logistics chain itself, as well as in the nature of goods and services transported. Estimates suggest AI can help increase supply chain efficiencies by around 20-30%, 7 with commensurate effects in particular on the freight, air cargo, and shipping cargo sector.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Bio-plastics
Primarily driven by non-climate related environmental concerns, notably plastic trash in the ocean, biodegradable plastic is likely to make inroads as the technology develops, with potentially upward of 50% of plastics replaced by non- oil based alternatives by 2040, 8 including potentially with nanotechnology solutions.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Hologram
Holograms can help revolutionize business travel and by extension the consumption of oil. This is likely to –should it scale – impact business travel in particular. Given some travel constraints and the fact that the majority of air travel is either cargo or ‘private’, holograms are only expected to have a low single digit effect on air travel consumption, with no robust estimates to date on scale.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative