Trends Identified
Lack of leadership
A startling 86% of respondents to the Survey on the Global Agenda agree that we have a leadership crisis in the world today. Why would they say this? Perhaps because the international community has largely failed to address any major global issue in recent years. It has failed to deal with global warming, then barely dealt with the failure of the global economy, which has caused such severe problems in North America and Europe. Meanwhile violence has been left to fester in the Middle East, the region our Survey showed is most affected by, and concerned about this problem. So why are we suffering such a lack of leadership?
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Rising geostrategic competition
In the years following the Cold War, the prevailing view was that the world had moved towards a liberal, democratic consensus. The break-up of the Soviet bloc, the integration of Russia and China into the global economic system and a fresh wave of democratic transitions, from Latin America to Eastern Europe, led many to believe that superpower rivalries were finished. Globalization, the free market and the ‘interdependence’ of countries would make wars less likely, while a greater role was forecast for multilateral bodies like the United Nations in responding to issues that put everyone at risk.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Weakening of representative democracy
Since the global economy crashed
in 2008, there has been an erosion
of trust in political institutions and processes. Citizens now place more faith in companies than in their own leaders, and even then they don’t particularly trust the private sector, with the latest Edelman Trust Barometer showing global trust in business at 58% while trust in government has sunk to 44%. As a Global Shaper of the World Economic Forum, this is an issue that resonates with those of my demographic: the world’s youth.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Rising pollution in the developing world
The industrialization of the developing world is creating unsustainable pollution levels. The solution requires
a technological and an intellectual revolution; an alternative route to economic prosperity that preserves resources and limits carbon emissions has to be developed before it’s too late.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
Extreme weather events are a major consequence of climate change,
and are becoming more frequent, powerful and erratic. What is needed is not just relief when disaster strikes, but adaptation to the massive effects these phenomena produce, including disease, political unrest and economic stress – issues explored elsewhere in this report. It’s obvious that adapting to – or ideally, preventing severe weather events –results in a better outcome for everyone.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Intensifying nationalism
Jean Crétien, Prime Minister of Canada at the time of its divisive referendum
on separation with Québec, wrote
that it took six months before wounds between Canada and Québec, even started to heal. And with 45% voting for independence, Scotland will be a divided country for some time to come.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Increasing water stress
Due to a combination of problems, including rapid population growth, constrained water supplies and high levels of poverty, countries such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Nigeria will be hit the hardest by this trend. Resource-constrained water stress will be the norm for many countries in Asia, while finance- constrained water stress will be the norm for many countries in Africa.
This is reflected in the fact that experts surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect Sub-Saharan Africa to be the most affected region, closely followed by Asia.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Growing importance of health in the economy
Health presents a challenge for all nations; in a study by the Pew Research Center, a median of 85% of respondents believe it was a problem in their country. Effective public health systems are essential for providing care for the sick, and for instituting measures that promote wellness and prevent disease. Tobacco, for instance, is one of the greatest scourges we face. In working to combat diseases such as lung cancer and heart disease, we have to fight the causes; there’s a clear need for educational campaigns and other mechanisms to discourage people from smoking in the first place. If the plan to improve health
in a nation is to simply build a few more hospitals, that won’t solve the problem.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Immigration in focus
“Racism and xenophobia, intolerance and Islamophobia are on the rise,” warns José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission. “They foster division and create suspicion and hatred between communities. In recent years, we have even seen a mounting wave of harassment and violence targeting asylum seekers, immigrants, ethnic minorities and sexual minorities in many European countries.”
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The ‘humanized’ internet
The evolution of modern connectivity is often summarized as: the internet – the world wide web – mobile devices – big data/the cloud – the internet of things. For the next stage, it seems inevitable that even more personalization will be an important component. What we refer to as the internet of things will be central. However, more than simply connecting humans with devices, the next stage in connectivity will include “humanized” interfaces that constantly evolve to understand the user’s patterns and needs and, in a sense, self-optimize. This would include the functions and features on our devices, as well as the selection/curation of information we receive. It may not be the kind of artificial intelligence found in science fiction, but I expect this injection of personalization will bring monumental changes as our level of connectivity continues to grow.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)