Trends Identified
Quantum computing
Quantum computers’ almost limitless potential has only ever been matched by the difficulty and cost of their construction. Which explains why today the small ones that have been built have not yet managed to exceed the power of supercomputers. But progress is being made and in 2016 the technology firm IBM provided the public access to the first quantum computer in the cloud. This has already led to more than 20 academic papers being published using the tool and today more than 50 start-ups and large corporations worldwide are focused on making quantum computing a reality. With such progress behind us, the word on people’s lips now is “Quantum Ready.”
2017
These are the top 10 emerging technologies of 2017
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Individual empowerment
Over the next 15 to 20 years, continued giving from groups like the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will lift millions of people out of poverty, the report found, to the extent that the majority of the world's population will no longer be impoverished. This new wealth will produce millions more empowered individuals that will have the means to add to local and national economies. The report hedged slightly, however, because more empowered people will also have greater access to lethal weapons and networks, which is "a capability formerly the monopoly of states."
2017
4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Diffusion of power
Developing countries in Asia will become more prominent world powers compared to North American and European nations. "China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030," the report explained. "In a tectonic shift, the health of the global economy increasingly will be linked to how well the developing world does — more so than the traditional West." In other words, having the most money or people won't necessarily keep a country powerful if others are more adept at staying connected to data and resources.
2017
4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Demographic patterns
A combination of widespread aging, falling fertility, and urbanization will lead to a dramatically different world in 2030. With an expected 8.3 billion people, human civilization will be both older and much more focused on city life. Our infrastructure may improve, but our level of innovation and output will slow down without younger workers. "Aging countries will face an uphill battle in maintaining their living standards," the report stated. It's entirely possible, however, that within the next several decades, humanity will generate more urban construction than it has in the rest of its history.
2017
4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Growing demand for food, water, and energy
A growing middle class and gains in empowerment will lead the demand for food to rise by 35%, water by 40%, and energy by 50%, government research suggested. Regions with extreme weather patterns — like rain-soaked Singapore or muggy Mumbai — will get more extreme due to the effects of climate change. Dry areas such as northern Africa and the US Southwest will feel the effects of diminished precipitation especially hard. We will still have enough resources to avoid energy scarcity by 2030; however, whether those resources include fracking or renewable forms like solar and wind is yet to be seen.
2017
4 mega-trends that could change the world by 2030
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Contested Space
With satellites now central to the smooth functioning of civil and military technologies, the amount of commercial and government activity in space has been increasing. This is a legally ambiguous realm, creating the potential for confusion, accident and even wilful disruption. Space debris is proliferating too—half a million pieces are now moving at the speed of a bullet in low orbit. Even accidental debris collisions could cause significant disruption to internet connectivity and all that relies on it. But at a time of intensifying geopolitical competition, space could also become an arena for active conflict. Even defensive moves to protect critical space assets might trigger a destabilizing arms race. Precision weapons and military earlywarning systems rely on high-orbit satellites—militarizing space might be seen as necessary to deter a crippling attack on them. In the future, as space becomes more affordably accessible, new threats of space-based terrorism could emerge. New rules or updated protocols would provide greater clarity— particularly on the rapid expansion of commercial activity, but also on military activity. Even simple measures could help—such as ensuring transparency on debrisremoval activities to prevent the misinterpretation of intentions. At a time of fraying global cooperation, space might be an area where multilateral advances could be signed up to by all.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Emotional Disruption
As the intertwining of technology with human life deepens, “affective computing”—the use of algorithms that can read human emotions or predict our emotional responses— is likely to become increasingly prevalent. In time, the advent of artificial intelligence (AI) “woebots” and similar tools could transform the delivery of emotional and psychological care—analogous to heart monitors and step counters. But the adverse consequences, either accidental or intentional, of emotionally “intelligent” code could be profound. Consider the various disruptions the digital revolution has already triggered—what would be the affective-computing equivalent of echo chambers or fake news? Of electoral interference or the micro-targeting of advertisements? New possibilities for radicalization would also open up, with machine learning used to identify emotionally receptive individuals and the specific triggers that might push them toward violence. Oppressive governments could deploy affective computing to exert control or whip up angry divisions. To help mitigate these risks, research into potential direct and indirect impacts of these technologies could be encouraged. Mandatory standards could be introduced, placing ethical limits on research and development. Developers could be required to provide individuals with “opt-out” rights. And greater education about potential risks—both for people working in this field and for the general population—would also help.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
No Rights Left
Amid a new phase of strong-state politics and deepening domestic polarization, it becomes easier for governments to sacrifice individual protections to collective stability. This already happens widely: lip service is paid to human rights that are breached at home or abroad when it suits states’ interests. What if even lip service goes by the wayside, and human rights are dismissed as anachronisms that weaken the state at a time of growing threats? In authoritarian countries with weak human rights records, the impact of such a tipping point might be one of degree—more rights breached. In some democratic countries, qualitative change would be more likely—a jolt towards an illiberalism in which power-holders determine whose rights get protected, and in which individuals on the losing side of elections risk censorship, detention or violence as “enemies of the people”. Battles are already under way among major powers at the UN over the future of the human rights system. In a multipolar world of divergent fundamental values, building far-reaching consensus in this area may be close to impossible. “Universal” rights are likely to be interpreted locally, and those interpretations then fought over globally. Even superficial changes might be of modest help, such as new language that is less politicized than “human rights”.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Monetary Populism
What if the protectionist wave expanded to engulf the central banks at the heart of the global financial system? Against a backdrop of geo-economic escalation, calls could rise to “take back control” of independent monetary policy and to use it as a weapon in tit-for-tat confrontations between the world’s economies. Prudent and coordinated central bank policies might be attacked by populist politicians as a globalist affront to national democracy. A direct political challenge to the independence of major central banks would unsettle financial markets. Investors might question the solidity of the global financial system’s institutional foundations. As unease deepened, markets might start to tremble, currencies to swing. Uncertainty would spread to the real economy. Polarization would hamper domestic political response, with mounting problems blamed on enemies within and without. Internationally, there might be no actors with the legitimacy to force a coordinated de-escalation. The risk of a populist attack on the world’s financial architecture could be mitigated by deepened efforts to maximize the popular legitimacy of central bank independence. This could be done by bringing the public in—perhaps through formal consultative assemblies— to decisions on independence, accountability and stability. The greater the public understanding of and support for monetary policy mandates and tools, the less vulnerable they will be in times of crisis.
2019
The Global Risks Report 2019 14th Edition
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Nanosensors and the Internet of Nanothings
The Internet of Things (IoT), built from inexpensive microsensors and microprocessors paired with tiny power supplies and wireless antennas, is rapidly expanding the online universe from computers and mobile gadgets to ordinary pieces of the physical world: thermostats, cars, door locks, even pet trackers. New IoT devices are announced almost daily, and analysts expected to up to 30 billion of them to be online by 2020. The explosion of connected items, especially those monitored and controlled by artificial intelligence systems, can endow ordinary things with amazing capabilities—a house that unlocks the front door when it recognizes its owner arriving home from work, for example, or an implanted heart monitor that calls the doctor if the organ shows signs of failing. But the real Big Bang in the online universe may lie just ahead. Scientists have started shrinking sensors from millimeters or microns in size to the nanometer scale, small enough to circulate within living bodies and to mix directly into construction materials. This is a crucial first step toward an Internet of Nano Things (IoNT) that could take medicine, energy efficiency, and many other sectors to a whole new dimension. Some of the most advanced nanosensors to date have been crafted by using the tools of synthetic biology to modify single-celled organisms, such as bacteria. The goal here is to fashion simple biocomputers that use DNA and proteins to recognize specific chemical targets, store a few bits of information, and then report their status by changing color or emitting some other easily detectable signal. Synlogic, a start-up in Cambridge, Mass., is working to commercialize computationally enabled strains of probiotic bacteria to treat rare metabolic disorders. Beyond medicine, such cellular nanosensors could find many uses in agriculture and drug manufacturing. Many nanosensors have also been made from non-biological materials, such as carbon nanotubes, that can both sense and signal, acting as wireless nanoantennas. Because they are so small, nanosensors can collect information from millions of different points. External devices can then integrate the data to generate incredibly detailed maps showing the slightest changes in light, vibration, electrical currents, magnetic fields, chemical concentrations and other environmental conditions. The transition from smart nanosensors to the IoNT seems inevitable, but big challenges will have to be met. One technical hurdle is to integrate all the components needed for a self-powered nanodevice to detect a change and transmit a signal to the web. Other obstacles include thorny issues of privacy and safety. Any nanodevices introduced into the body, deliberately or inadvertently, could be toxic or provoke immune reactions. The technology could also enable unwelcome surveillance. Initial applications might be able to avoid the most vexing issues by embedding nanosensors in simpler, less risky organisms such as plants and non-infectious microorganisms used in industrial processing. When it arrives, the IoNT could provide much more detailed, inexpensive, and up-to-date pictures of our cities, homes, factories—even our bodies. Today traffic lights, wearables or surveillance cameras are getting connected to the Internet. Next up: billions of nanosensors harvesting huge amounts of real-time information and beaming it up to the cloud.
2016
Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2016
World Economic Forum (WEF)