Trends Identified
Developing countries will dominate global trade
The weight of global economic activity is shifting from the G7 countries toward emerging economies. Over the next 50 years, this trend is expected to accelerate. On the most conservative projections, the economy of the G20 is expected to quadruple in size, rising from US$38 trillion in 2009 to US$160 trillion in 2060 in real dollar terms.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
The global middle class will grow
The dramatic change in the global economic landscape will be both a cause and a consequence of the emergence of a new Global Middle and Rich class (GMR).4 At present, about a quarter of the global GMR population resides in developing countries. By 2030, the GMR population in developing countries will have overtaken that in advanced countries, and in 2060 about 60 percent of the world’s GMR population will reside in developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Commodity prices will continue to decline and fluctuate
Global GDP growth has consistently outpaced the demand for commodities. Though commodity prices are high now, creating improvements in the terms of trade for some African countries, it is expected to resume its downward trend. Thus, it is expected that commodity prices will continue to fall relative to manufactured goods and knowledge-intensive services.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Agricultural biotechnology will create a “gene revolution”
It is contended that by 2060, the Green Revolution will be supplanted by a Gene Revolution. Since the early 1980s, modern biotechnology has led to increasing knowledge of the scientific procedures needed to utilise gene-based techniques to improve agriculture. Agricultural biotechnology has the potential to transform African agriculture by raising agricultural productivity and farmers’ incomes. The potential benefits include yield increases in the staple food crops produced in tropical and semi-tropical environments, the creation of drought- and pest-resistant varieties, and shorter harvesting cycles, enabling the planting of several crops per season. Genetic engineering also enables cost-saving techniques, such as nitrogen fixation.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Health innovations will shape health outcomes
Innovations in the health field will bring together the technological process of inventing new drugs, vaccines and diagnostic tools, with profound impact on the health systems of developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Energy systems will respond to low carbon pressures
Since the global energy crisis in the 1970s, technological innovation in the field of renewable energy has grown rapidly. By 2060, renewable energy could replace conventional fuels in four main sectors: power generation, hot water and space heating, transport fuels and rural energy.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Global trade and financial rules will change
The future of the Doha Round of WTO talks is uncertain, but it is unlikely that the gains made in multilateral liberalisation under the Uruguay round will be reversed. Nevertheless, the absolute shift of manufacturing production to developing countries and a likely economic slowdown among the OECD countries raise the spectre of resurgent protectionism in the North.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Regional agreements between Europe, the US, and Africa face an uncertain future
Contrary to many fears, the end of the Multi- Fibre Arrangement did not mark the end of trade preferences for Africa. Both the United States and the European Union introduced new preferences in 2001. The future of both preference schemes is uncertain.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Aid flows are likely to diminish
By 2060, aid will have decreased in importance as a driver of Africa’s development. There will be new players in the aid industry (international NGOs, private businesses, non-DAC donors) bringing new approaches. However, the total volume of aid to Africa is likely to diminish.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Climate Change
Climate change is a threat globally, and a particular menace to Africa. Many African countries are already under various forms of climate-related stress - drought, floods and rainfall variability - which, coupled with low adaptive capacity, make them highly vulnerable to climate change. Because the African continent is already among the hottest parts of the Earth, further warming will have adverse implications for socioeconomic development and welfare.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank