Trends Identified
Fewer fancy phones, more fulfilment
The world many of us live in is changing at an exciting pace. Innovations are generating new gadgets, more convenient services and greater opportunities. But many of these changes target a small percentage of the globe’s population. In the villages I’ve worked in, nobody has seen an iPhone or can download an app. However, there is tremendous room for entrepreneurs to adapt innovations intended for the wealthy to serve the world’s poor. Solar panels and LED lights, designed for sale in rich nations, are stimulating growth in commercial off-grid electrification in India and Africa. Mobile telecommunication is being used to facilitate financial inclusion in developing countries across the world. Once-expensive medical procedures can be done amazingly cheaply. Even the financial sector is innovating in order to reach the world’s poor; as well as investors looking for opportunities that not only help them increase their net worth but also improve the world. Better financing opportunities are opening up for social entrepreneurs who build businesses to serve the poor profitably. I see a slight but significant shift in innovation, that instead of producing fancier phones, we will create more fulfilling lives for people who have been mostly ignored to date.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The end of scarcity
The world said humans were not meant to fly. Hundreds of years of human invention had been unable to make it work. But in a small bicycle-repair shop, two brothers with no government funding and only a basic education had a vision, and a will to invent. And in 1903, thanks to the determination of these two unsuspecting inventors, humans flew. The distance of the first human flight was 120 ft. Years later, one of the inventors of that breakthrough would marvel that the wingspan of modern airplanes was longer than the entire distance his first plane had flown. The potential of technology is limited only by our imagination, and our will. Abundance of water, food, clean air … peace: the end of scarcity in the supply of our basic needs is possible. Perhaps not by 2020, but it starts with the dream, the determination to turn dreams into reality, and the understanding of this truth, so well embodied in the invention and rapid evolution of human flight: that all things are possible.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The end of the 19th-century grid
One of the biggest changes we will see (or at least have made substantial progress towards) by 2020 is global electrification. In the US and Europe, most people take electricity for granted. But that is not the case in many parts of Latin America, Africa and Asia. More than 1.3 billion people still aren’t connected to the grid. More than 1.5 billion still don’t have regular access to electric light: they use oil lamps, which are a safety hazard. Even where the grid exists, it’s fragile: power blackouts are a major problem in many megacities. Power theft also plagues Brazil, India and South Africa. Safe, reliable power will have a transformative effect on these countries. Not only will there be near-term benefits such as greater productivity, but we will see long-term quantum leaps in educational achievement, healthcare and quality of life. These communities don’t have power now because our 19th-century grid is too expensive. The advent of new technologies is changing both the business models and use-case scenarios to make it possible. In a few years, the world will finally, truly, be wired.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
The ‘humanized’ internet
The evolution of modern connectivity is often summarized as: the internet – the world wide web – mobile devices – big data/the cloud – the internet of things. For the next stage, it seems inevitable that even more personalization will be an important component. What we refer to as the internet of things will be central. However, more than simply connecting humans with devices, the next stage in connectivity will include “humanized” interfaces that constantly evolve to understand the user’s patterns and needs and, in a sense, self-optimize. This would include the functions and features on our devices, as well as the selection/curation of information we receive. It may not be the kind of artificial intelligence found in science fiction, but I expect this injection of personalization will bring monumental changes as our level of connectivity continues to grow.
2014
14 tech predictions for our world in 2020
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Immigration in focus
“Racism and xenophobia, intolerance and Islamophobia are on the rise,” warns José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission. “They foster division and create suspicion and hatred between communities. In recent years, we have even seen a mounting wave of harassment and violence targeting asylum seekers, immigrants, ethnic minorities and sexual minorities in many European countries.”
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Growing importance of health in the economy
Health presents a challenge for all nations; in a study by the Pew Research Center, a median of 85% of respondents believe it was a problem in their country. Effective public health systems are essential for providing care for the sick, and for instituting measures that promote wellness and prevent disease. Tobacco, for instance, is one of the greatest scourges we face. In working to combat diseases such as lung cancer and heart disease, we have to fight the causes; there’s a clear need for educational campaigns and other mechanisms to discourage people from smoking in the first place. If the plan to improve health
in a nation is to simply build a few more hospitals, that won’t solve the problem.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Increasing water stress
Due to a combination of problems, including rapid population growth, constrained water supplies and high levels of poverty, countries such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Nigeria will be hit the hardest by this trend. Resource-constrained water stress will be the norm for many countries in Asia, while finance- constrained water stress will be the norm for many countries in Africa.
This is reflected in the fact that experts surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect Sub-Saharan Africa to be the most affected region, closely followed by Asia.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Intensifying nationalism
Jean Crétien, Prime Minister of Canada at the time of its divisive referendum
on separation with Québec, wrote
that it took six months before wounds between Canada and Québec, even started to heal. And with 45% voting for independence, Scotland will be a divided country for some time to come.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Increasing occurrence of severe weather events
Extreme weather events are a major consequence of climate change,
and are becoming more frequent, powerful and erratic. What is needed is not just relief when disaster strikes, but adaptation to the massive effects these phenomena produce, including disease, political unrest and economic stress – issues explored elsewhere in this report. It’s obvious that adapting to – or ideally, preventing severe weather events –results in a better outcome for everyone.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)
Rising pollution in the developing world
The industrialization of the developing world is creating unsustainable pollution levels. The solution requires
a technological and an intellectual revolution; an alternative route to economic prosperity that preserves resources and limits carbon emissions has to be developed before it’s too late.
2014
Outlook on the global agenda 2015
World Economic Forum (WEF)