Trends Identified
The future is electrifying
The growing electrification of energy; in 2016, spending by the world’s consumers on electricity approached parity with their spending on oil products.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
When China changes, everything changes
The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, the world’s largest energy consumer.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
The shale revolution in the United States is turning to exports
The resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States, cementing its position as the biggest oil and gas producer in the world even at lower prices.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Demography
The figures for global population growth over the next 20 years can be predicted with some confidence. This overall growth will be combined with a changing spatial and age distribution that will differ across regions. The impacts of migration are less clear than population growth but the overall move from rural to urban areas, especially in developing countries, is a well established trend.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Natural resource availability
Population growth will impact on those resources that are finite. In particular, there will be increasing pressure on water availability, both for drinking and for agriculture. The production of food will be a challenge as the availability of fertile land is limited, a situation that is exacerbated by the degradation of natural ecosystems. There will be increasing demand on finite sources of energy, with fossil fuels having to be extracted from previously unexploited locations. Other rare materials are also being used at rates which are unsustainable.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Global environmental change
The impact of human behaviour on the state of the planet is being increasingly understood and mapped. Data on oceans, ecosystems, the cryosphere and the atmosphere are now available to show what this is likely to mean if environmental change continues at its present rate.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Human health and wellbeing
As the population expands and urbanization increases the prevalence of non-communicable diseases related to sedentary lifestyles and obesity is increasing. At the same time, communicable diseases will remain a challenge and the likelihood of global pandemics may increase as international travel and trade facilitate the spread of infectious agents.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Technological change
The impact of technological change on society is more difficult to predict than some of the other megatrends. However, the exponential increase in the rate of technological change is a pattern that is likely to continue for the next 20 years. Forecasting specific technological developments over two decades is very uncertain but the speed of innovation and change is more predictable.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Enabling information and communication technologies
Information and communication technologies (ICTs) will continue to have a significant impact both in developing and developed countries. Like other technologies the rate of change will continue to increase and new ICTs will surely make a major difference to the functioning of societies over the next twenty years. There will be new ways of communicating and social networking – with implications for science and the production and maintenance of the scientific record.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
The triumph of globalism
There is recognition that the socio-economic challenges do not recognize national boundaries and are best addressed cooperatively. Global governance has received new lifeblood with the full support of the traditional world powers and the newly industrialized countries. While states have taken the lead in establishing this new global order, the emergence of an active global citizenry, together with a newly invigorated UN system, has played an important role in the formation of new issue-focused networks that tackle a range of pressing grand challenges around energy, food, environment, health and poverty.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)