Trends Identified
Science supplying national needs
After a series of major global economic crises over the preceding two decades, there is public disenchantment with globalization and a strong push towards new localized growth models with sustainability at their core. The goal is to be more self-sufficient, to increase local production for internal and regional markets, and to improve quality of life and societal satisfaction, rather than growth per se. At the same time, efforts to build effective global governance structures have largely failed and instead, complex national and supranational regional alliances have formed among states, businesses and civic groups to address pressing challenges. Diverse national and regional solutions prosper in a widely experimental society.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Science for sale in a global market place
The global free-market economy reigns and intense levels of interaction occur between economic agents across national borders. Thousands of multinational companies constitute powerful international players and drive the ever-faster pace of globalization. New scientific discoveries and technological developments have created whole new industries that power economic development in advanced and a few rapidly emerging economies. Countries have increasingly specialized in supplying only certain products to global markets, but still compete intensely for the investments of foot-loose capitalism. These investments include R&D facilities and funding, which are much more widely dispersed across advanced and emerging economies than in previous times.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
Rise of aggressive nationalism
With the rise of the new and emerging economies, an ongoing power struggle for global leadership and resources has created a great deal of uncertainty and instability in the international state system. Largely unresolved sustainable development issues and the competition for finite resources present a potential trigger for war. In the uncertain geopolitical environment, nation states are the key actors. Economic powerhouses, including the USA, Germany and a number of the newly industrialized countries, act as leadership poles and dominate international decision-making structures. With an increase in international tensions, the economies of the leading powers are largely driven by national military-industrial complexes.
2011
ICSU Foresight Analysis
International Council for Science (ICSU)
3D printing for development
The current ‘tipping point’ moment, where 3d printing is ‘coming of age as a manufacturing technique’ and is considered to be the cornerstone of a decentralised manufacturing revolution.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
Collaborative economy tools
Collaborative economy tools leverage the power of social networks and technology to promote new models of consumption, novel employment and income generation opportunities.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
Alternative internet delivery
Affordable access to the internet remains one of the major challenges to getting more poor people online. The poorest people in the least developed countries pay more for internet access than citizens in developed countries in absolute and relative terms.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
Internet of things
The internet of things (ioT) provides the opportunity to radically improve the efficiency of all kinds of public sector, business and community processes and infrastructure, thanks to a growing network of low-cost sensors, actuators, and data communications technology embedded in physical objects
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
Unmanned aerial vehicles/ Drones
The proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) – commonly known as drones – that are easy to use and low cost is leading to their widespread deployment in aerial inspection tasks, mapping physical and social phenomena, providing unmanned cargo deliveries, and taking aerial photography and video. There is a clear opportunity to transform the way development organisations collect and deliver data and physical objects, enabling these tasks to be undertaken faster, safer, cheaper, more efficiently and more accurately than ever before.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
Airships
Modern airships have the potential to transport fully assembled goods, supplies, and even large structures from the point of manufacture directly to their point of use without the need to build any of the usual transportation infrastructure such as roads, railways, runways or airports.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)
Solar desalination
Historically, people have tried to increase water availability to meet demands by exploiting unutilised fresh water sources, such as rainwater, groundwater and atmospheric water, or through improved water management practices, including demand management, water recycling, river flow regulation and so on.245 while these practices are widespread today, their potential mitigating impact on escalating levels of water stress is somewhat limited because fresh water only accounts for around 3% of global water volumes. As a result, increasing attempts have been made to harness the remaining 97% of saline water, comprising seawater and brackish water.246 experts argue that methods to turn saline into fresh water are likely to play an important role, especially in developing countries. Some go as far as to suggest that ‘desalination [could] make a revolution in water supply globally.
2016
Ten Frontier Technologies for International Development
Institute of Development Studies (IDS)