Trends Identified
User interface
The way we interact with technology has a huge impact on our productivity. Key examples include the mouse, the touch screen, and most recently, voice communication systems like Siri. Connecting voluminous data and computational power with our physical and biological reality will become ever more seamless and sophisticated. User interfaces will become more natural and in tune with natural human behaviour.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Machine / robotics Automating common tasks
Machines and robotics are endowed with AI (programmed algorithms) to ful l set tasks and goals. These generally fall into two key categories: ‘speci c task-based AI’ (e.g. a web search engine or an autonomous vehicle) and ‘general AI’ that aims to replicate aspects of human intelligence (e.g. IBM’s Watson or humanoid robots like Honda’s ASIMO).
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Internet infrastructure The backbone of our communications
The backbone ‘hard’ infrastructure that supports the ow of data across space will be under pressure to cope with tra c demands.
2017
Surfing the digital tsunami
Australia, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Individual Empowerment: More Unintended Consequences
The global middle class worries about falling back into poverty. Democratization lags and there is a loss of Western confidence in democracy. Citizenship becomes supplanted by self/group identity, spurred by the Internet.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Demographic Crunch
The West’s social welfare system is under serious threat, likely deteriorating over this period. China and other middle-income powers risk unsustainable health and pension costs in the next decade. Only raising retirement age and immigration will help mitigate aging and solve the skills gap, but immigration and retirement age increases are both politically sensitive.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Malthusian World for the Very Poorest
Half or more of the world’s population lives in areas of water scarcity. Climate change is undermining water and food security. The biggest impact will be in sub-Saharan Africa, which suffers overpopulation, poor governance, and low agricultural productivity. There is an increasing risk of endless poverty cycle for the poorest.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Technology with Increasing Downside
Job churn moves up the skills ladder as robotics, artificial intelligence, and automation become widespread. Terrorists move into higher technology, with devastating effects. The United States will remain the overall tech leader, with China making inroads. Technology increases inequalities within and between nations.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Conflict Risk at Highest Level since Cold War
The Ukraine crisis shows that economic interests can be sacrificed for political ambitions. Major state-on state conflict is no longer unthinkable. Virtually any part of post-Soviet space and Asia-Pacific could become areas of serious big-power competition.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
No End in Sight of Middle East Instability
Iraq and Syria are unlikely to be put back together. difficult reform efforts in Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are potentially destabilizing in the short term. Radical Islam and terrorism are not decreasing. A nuclear Iran remains an open question as Sunni-Shia tensions continue to escalate.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
China’s Swing Role
Whether China gets stuck in the middle-income trap is more than a domestic question. An angry China would be a dangerous regional and global spoiler. Without a growing China, global economic growth would dip.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council