Trends Identified
No Clear Path to Post-Western Order
A United States-led global system was premised on a politically and economically dominant West. Financial regionalization will eat away at the central role of the Anglo-Saxon financial model. The challenge will be to establish a new world order that maintains a modicum of cooperation despite values gaps.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Fragmented World
A dysfunctional Europe is absorbed in regional threats. Then United States gives up on the policeman role. Protectionism provides an initial domestic economic boost, but leads to lower global growth over the medium term. Russia and China become regionally dominant.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
New Cold War
East and West square off after China suffers an implosion and ramps up nationalism. conflict is only matter of time. The threat spurs Western solidarity and a Russo-Chinese military alliance.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Ageless World
Life expectancy reaches ninety years in Western countries. Human enhancement breakthroughs mean middle age begins at sixty. Retirement ages rise. The young are not being promoted with everyone working longer.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Strange Bedfellows
High-tech terrorism leads to a rebirth of state power, and the United States and China unite to combat the threat.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Urban Oasis
As in the Middle Ages, cities rapidly assume increased importance, as national governments cannot deliver on overall economic growth. Cities are a magnet for the brightest and most talented. Well-run cities spawn and use new technologies, helping to make them self-sufficient in terms of resources. They seek special political privileges and autonomy.
2016
Global risks 2035- the search for a new normal
Atlantic Council
Developing countries will dominate global trade
The weight of global economic activity is shifting from the G7 countries toward emerging economies. Over the next 50 years, this trend is expected to accelerate. On the most conservative projections, the economy of the G20 is expected to quadruple in size, rising from US$38 trillion in 2009 to US$160 trillion in 2060 in real dollar terms.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
The global middle class will grow
The dramatic change in the global economic landscape will be both a cause and a consequence of the emergence of a new Global Middle and Rich class (GMR).4 At present, about a quarter of the global GMR population resides in developing countries. By 2030, the GMR population in developing countries will have overtaken that in advanced countries, and in 2060 about 60 percent of the world’s GMR population will reside in developing countries.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Commodity prices will continue to decline and fluctuate
Global GDP growth has consistently outpaced the demand for commodities. Though commodity prices are high now, creating improvements in the terms of trade for some African countries, it is expected to resume its downward trend. Thus, it is expected that commodity prices will continue to fall relative to manufactured goods and knowledge-intensive services.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank
Agricultural biotechnology will create a “gene revolution”
It is contended that by 2060, the Green Revolution will be supplanted by a Gene Revolution. Since the early 1980s, modern biotechnology has led to increasing knowledge of the scientific procedures needed to utilise gene-based techniques to improve agriculture. Agricultural biotechnology has the potential to transform African agriculture by raising agricultural productivity and farmers’ incomes. The potential benefits include yield increases in the staple food crops produced in tropical and semi-tropical environments, the creation of drought- and pest-resistant varieties, and shorter harvesting cycles, enabling the planting of several crops per season. Genetic engineering also enables cost-saving techniques, such as nitrogen fixation.
2011
Africa in 50 Years’ Time
African Development Bank