Trends Identified
Boosted brainpower
It’s already common to use drugs to boost brainpower (whether it’s coffee, or something stronger, like modafinil), and most of the developed world now relies on their smartphones as an ‘externalised’ memory – but let’s extrapolate that out a few decades. Imagine targeted pharmaceuticals that make us think faster than currently possible, and technological implants that help us concentrate beyond normal human ability for hours or days, for example – these advances are already well underway in laboratories around the world. The question it raises is: what happens to those that cannot afford such enhancements? Could it widen inequality, and allow the rich to get richer? Then there’s also the legal and ethical issues: it’s acceptable to drink a coffee before you sit an exam, but is it ok to use an implant or a smart drug? The challenges posed by intelligence enhancement are only just emerging.
2017
10 grand challenges we’ll face by 2050
The BBC
AI's dominance in our lives
Futurist Ray Kurzweil has made a host of predictions – some inspirational, others downright alarming. One of them is the sci-fi-sounding notion that suggests artificial intelligence will one day become more powerful than human intelligence and improve itself at an exponential rate, otherwise known as ‘the singularity’.It’s far from the majority view, but few would deny that AI is only going to get more powerful. So, like in the case of gene editing, the tech and AI community will need to consider the ethical and societal implications of their work as AI comes to shape more realms of our life, from healthcare to financial markets. As for end-of-the-world extinction scenarios, it’s frankly not likely – but that shouldn’t obscure the fact that AI is poised to change how we live and work in profound ways. It is also not impossible that specific AIs could malfunction or run out of their creators’ control, leading to very human disasters, where lives are lost or millions of dollars are wiped out.
2017
10 grand challenges we’ll face by 2050
The BBC
Sharing economy
Car- and bike-sharing programs, as well as the revolution in the nature of taxi services is set to reduce the purchase of private vehicles and by extension likely the consumption of oil related to passenger vehicles . Estimates by McKinsey suggest that the sharing economy is likely to reduce car sales by around 10 % over the next 25 years. The effect on oil demand in 2040 of this trend is somewhat uncertain, related to both the speed of adoption of the sharing economy and the actual replacement of oil – fueled vehicles with alternatives.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
3D printing
3D printing is set to have potentially significant impacts on the logistics sector, driving more local production of goods and potentially reducing the transportation of intermediate goods across long distances. 4 According to Integracore, around 25 % of the freight, 41 % of the air cargo sector, and 37 % of the shipping sector may be at risk in the context of 3D printing. In estimating the implications for oil demand, there are data challenges related to the share that cargo makes up in the aviation and shipping sector respectively.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Autonomous vehicles
Autonomous driving is another area of significant disruption. Autonomous vehicles are already tested on the road, with a significant degree of automation built into the Tesla software. Autonomous driving could thus be associated with limited lock-in effect as vehicles simply receive ‘softwareupdates’ as the technology matures. The range of estimates on the impact of autonomous vehicles is wide, from rebound effects actually increasing oil demand to positive estimates suggesting up to a 40% efficiency gain across all road transport.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Ai in supply chains
Artificial intelligence will help significantly improve the efficiencies of supply chains, reducing waste both in the logistics chain itself, as well as in the nature of goods and services transported. Estimates suggest AI can help increase supply chain efficiencies by around 20-30%, 7 with commensurate effects in particular on the freight, air cargo, and shipping cargo sector.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Bio-plastics
Primarily driven by non-climate related environmental concerns, notably plastic trash in the ocean, biodegradable plastic is likely to make inroads as the technology develops, with potentially upward of 50% of plastics replaced by non- oil based alternatives by 2040, 8 including potentially with nanotechnology solutions.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Hologram
Holograms can help revolutionize business travel and by extension the consumption of oil. This is likely to –should it scale – impact business travel in particular. Given some travel constraints and the fact that the majority of air travel is either cargo or ‘private’, holograms are only expected to have a low single digit effect on air travel consumption, with no robust estimates to date on scale.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Hyperloop
The Hyperloop is designed to be an alternative technology to air travel, creating super high – speed on -ground travel connections, powered by electricity, across major industrial or population centers. Here too, estimates are missing, but high capital lock – in and long construction phases suggest limited penetration by 2040, even under an optimistic scenario, although hyperloops may come to play a more prominent role in the long - term.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative
Nanotechnology
Beyond its role in plastics, nanotechnology can also help accelerate fuel efficiency trends, through a combination of lowering the weight of vehicles and thus increasing efficiency, improving tire efficiency, and nanocatalysts that make fuel consumption more efficient.
2018
The bigger picture- The impact of automation, AI, shared economy on oil demand
The 2° Investing Initiative