Trends Identified
Technology
Technology has powered much of the convergence in the world’s economies and provided the know-how. It has provided access to global markets for those moving from feudal and agricultural economies to the more valuable industrial, service and intellectual property economies. The internet has expanded to reach 2.1 billion people today and is expected to reach five billion people across the planet by 2020. The raw materials of today’s technology are not inexhaustible and indium, used in liquid-crystal displays, and hafnium, a critical element for next-generation semiconductors, could be exhausted by 2017. Technology is driving the conception of new business models and is set to continue its disruptive and enabling role in the coming decades. When once employees had access to the best technology at work, today it’s more likely that their technology at home or in their hand is superior to their employers. Increasingly, companies are looking to ‘outsource’ personal technologies to their employees enabling them to use their own mobile technologies at work.
2012
The future
Steria
Work
Work itself is changing, with new jobs coming on-stream that didn’t exist ten years ago, as a direct consequence of urbanisation, increasing life expectancy, new technologies, globalisation and climate change. To maintain our workforce we will increasingly hire women, the aged and disabled people and probably have three generations of employees in our firms for the first time in any numbers. The diversity of our workforce and the roles we will ask them to perform, in massively changing circumstances, will put even greater stress on them than they experience today. The direct costs related to stress at work are now estimated to be as high as four percent of EU GDP.
2012
The future
Steria
Outsourcing
As we gain in confidence in being able to collaborate effectively with outside firms and individuals, we are letting go of functions and processes that were once considered essential to retain in-house, increasingly outsourcing them to others to manage for us. Innovation and creativity are two areas where we will invite others to help us more and more, through means such as Engineering R&D outsourcing or through crowdsourcing, where we invite many people to help us discover our next product or service offering.
2012
The future
Steria
Regulation and legislation
Ageing and environmental laws are likely to shape much future regulation and legislation at least within the European Union.
2012
The future
Steria
Government
Due to massive public debt governments are recognising that they can no longer afford generous pensions and the European Union Commission has said that the average retirement age across the 27 member countries needs to rise from 60 today to 70 by 2060. Governments are rapidly turning to the ‘Cloud’ to service the needs of their citizens and today EU citizens can access 82 percent of basic public services online. The working population will start shrinking from 2012 and unless a dramatic change in migration policy is forthcoming, companies will have to deal with the consequences of older workers and fewer workers in the labour pool in the EU. The EU is setting policies towards car-free cities in Europe by 2050. This could be a boom or bust strategy. On the one-hand it may lead to innovation and the rise of cleantech and on the other it may put off investment and inward migration of companies. We will see.
2012
The future
Steria
Human empowerment
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Increased Life Expectancy, Self-centered Society, Decrease in Birth Rate, Empowerment of Women, Expansion of Human Capability, Hyper-speed Transportation, Artificial intelligence and Automation, Development of New Materials. Opening of the Space Age
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Innovation through hyper-connectivity
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Digital Network Society, Hyper-connectivity Technology, Network-driven Transition of Power, Acceleration of E-democracy
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Deepening environmental risk
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Aggravated Food Crisis, Energy Imbalance, Water Deterioration Crisis, Increase in Natural Disasters. Deepening ecosystem destruction.
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Intensification of Social Complexity
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Deepening of International Conflict, Expansion of Cultural Diversity, Deepening Socioeconomic Inequality, Creation through Fusion, Increased Side Effects from Technological Advances, Increase in Social Disasters, Increased Health Risk Factors, Raising of Unification Issue, Increased Liquidity of International Power, Evolution of Security Threats
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)
Reorganization of the Economic System
A megatrend derived from following underlying trends: Global Population Movement, Expansion of Urbanization, World Population Growth, Enhancement in the Connectivity of the Global Economy, Emergence of Developing and Emerging Countries, Expansion of China's Global Influence, Spread of New Economic System, Change in the Structure of the Labor Field, Continuing Low-growth Risk in Developed Countries, Invigoration of Greenomics, Shift in Manufacturing Paradigm, Change in Market Pattern.
2016
The 5th Science and Technology Foresight (2016-2040) Discovering Future Technologies to Solve Major Issues of Future Society
South Korea, Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP)