Trends Identified
Molecular self-assembly and self-organisation of nanomechanical systems
As for the distant future it is worth mentioning molecular self-assembly. Products in this group will find the greatest use. Thus, self-assembling microchips will be especially cost-effective, productive and energy-efficient. There is serious potential for medical applications, in particular to develop diagnosis methods and targeted drug delivery systems.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Long-term weather forecasts with long lead times
The role of long-term weather forecasting with a large lead time and a success rate exceeding climate forecasts will grow in environmental forecasting (in particular, dangerous natural phenomena) and economic planning (natural resources and economic risks affected by the climate, trends in climate dependent economic sectors, etc.), which will in turn contribute to the achievement of sustainable development and the security of the country.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Remote monitoring systems including using satellite systems
The introduction of remote monitoring systems using satellite systems will ensure that qualitatively new information on the state of the land, land based installations, and natural and anthropogenic processes is available. These data will serve as the primary source to create up-to-date thematic maps. Aside from this, prospective remote surveying technologies and computer data processing technologies vastly exceed the capabilities of traditional cartography both in terms of content and the diversity of the methods used to present the data.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Meso-scale models to forecast dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena
The meso-scale model to forecast dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena is a software package incorporating an actual mesoscale atmospheric model; a unit to prepare input data, constraints and surface properties (pre-processing); and a postprocessing unit to process modelling output data, additional calculations and visualisation. Such models, implemented for limited territories, already serve as a means to provide a detailed forecast of meteorological fields with various parameters (temperature, humidity, pressure, precipitation, wind), and the sampling resolution of the computer grids for operational weather forecasting does not exceed 2 km2. Improving these models will enhance the accuracy and scales of the fore casts of dangerous phenomena, both for “purely atmospheric” (storm wind speed, largescale precipitation, etc.) and for series of hydrometeorological phenomena (storm surges, floods, rough seas, avalanches, etc.).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Systems to diagnose the state of natural and dangerous man-made systems
Systems to diagnose the state of natural and dangerous man-made systems are critical for the prevention of emergencies. These systems include not only an instrument base, but also a means to process and visualise the results. Their application means that the amount of time required for diagnosis can be reduced and accuracy can be increased, which would greatly reduce the possible damage and increase the safety of the technosphere. The development of systems to diagnose the state of natural and dangerous manmade systems based on innovative equipment will lead to the creation of new markets in the field of instrumentation and software.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Methods to forecast natural and man-made disasters and their after-effects based on observation data
Over the past two decades there has been active development in methods to forecast natural and man-made disasters and their after-effects based on observation data. For this, geographic information systems (GIS technology) has been used which, among other things, allows you to collect operational data, analyse the signs of brewing earthquakes and assess possible threats of their occurrence on a spatiotemporal scale. The prospective techniques that are being developed for earthquake regions will be based on detecting changes in the pattern of the solarterrestrial structure (cloud seismotectonic indicators). To monitor and forecast earth quakes there needs to be space image data, including images at intervals of no less than 15–30 minutes, covering large areas and at a high sampling resolution.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Web services (geoportals)
Geoportals – a set of webservices (downloads, visualisation, editing, transformation, analysis, etc.) carried out on the basis of unrestricted access to geographic (geospatial) information – make it possible to improve efficiency and dramatically reduce the amount of time required to deliver public services. Moreover, they address the problem of investment openness and transparency. An important property of geoportals is the self-development of services. Thus, regional geoportals will be able to monitor the movement of state and municipal transport (snow removal machinery, ambulances, etc.). This leads to the accumulation of data on average speeds along main city thoroughfares and makes it easier to find ways to optimise use of the road network.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Land registries based on Geographic Information Systems
Registers developed on the basis of geographic information systems are a system for quantitative and qualitative information on the state of natural resources, their economic and social value, as well as the breakdown and categories of users. All registers contain explicit and implicit spatial data; however, under the existing system the accumulation and storage of information on their “spatiality” is not in any way used in the procedures of services connected with the extraction and comparison of information stored in multiple registers. The creation of registers based on integrated GIS platforms will reduce the time taken to provide a service to a few minutes (currently, in Russian departments it can take days or weeks). During their development, there may be potential to allow for integration into other GIS platforms and databases. Moreover, keeping registers will open up a broad range of analytical capabilities and will become a key factor in the development of state and municipal services on an entirely different level.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Techniques to optimise spatial planning
Practices to optimise land planning in accordance with the landscape structure and the environmental and resource potential of the land imply the embedding of the landscape component in the land planning procedure. They will include GIS algorithms for landscape mapping, the development of generally accepted classifiers for various scale levels, and substantial GIS modelling of key stages of landscape planning: engineering and geological assessments of land, analysis of the capacity (vulnerability, resistance) of landscapes, calculation of ecoservice systems, arrangement of the environmental framework and planning regional tourist and recreational systems.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Development and extraction of unconventional raw materials sources
The creation of equipment to develop and extract non-traditional sources of raw materials will guarantee the necessary conditions for the industrial development of new hydrocarbon sources. The application of these technologies implies a several fold increase in the volume of reserves, the geographical expansion of extraction, and the transformation of the raw hydro carbons market with an increase in the proportion of resources and alternatives to traditional oil and natural gas (gashydrates, shale gas, “heavy oil” and oil sands, coal mine methane, methane from high gasbearing coal formations, etc.).
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation