Trends Identified
Approaches and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment
The speed of development of methods and systems to reduce the negative impact of air transport on the environment, aimed primarily at reducing harmful emissions, will increase rapidly. Aside from this, new products will make it possible to reduce fuel costs for passenger transport, noise levels and increase flight safety. By 2030, it is expected that the aviation market will see the emergence of aircraft with improved key characteristics: accident rates will reduce by 8.5 times compared with 2010 levels, fuel costs and CO2 emissions will fall by 1.6 times, NOx emissions will drop by 1.8 times in terms of ICAO standards, and noise levels will be lower by up to 30 dB in terms of ICAO standards. In the period up to 2020, products will appear which fully satisfy future ICAO standards setting strict demands on the environmental factors of air trans- port.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation carrier rockets
Next-generation carrier rockets making wide use of new polymer composite materials (composite proportions 20% higher than in the Proton-M rocket) will have better characteristics compared with existing counterparts by almost twofold. A distinguishing feature of these carrier rockets will be modularity. Such a construction concept firstly helps to simplify delivery of a ready-made product to the launch site by rail transport; secondly, it makes it possible to create a whole family of carrier rockets – from light (based on a single first stage module) launching a ground payload of 1.5 tons into low-earth orbit, to very heavy (up to 50 tons). With the introduction of such systems it will be possible to place payloads of over 50 tons into an orbit of 200 km, which increases the opportunities for space tourism allows to use modular carrier rockets to launch spacecraft to the Moon or nearby planets in the Solar System, and they could even be adapted for the development of deep space. One expected production benefit is linked to economies of scale: modular systems make it possible to move from modern small-scale or even individual production of rocket modules to medium-scale output.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Launch of payloads into orbit using heavy space preparations and modular carrier rockets
In terms of services to place payloads in orbit there will be some development in the transportation of high-mass space instruments and the volume of payloads and spacecraft will increase by using lighter materials and integrated systems alongside reductions in the negative environmental impact.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation telecommunications services based on space systems
The development of next-generation telecommunications services based on space systems holds special importance for our country in view of its colossal territory. In this field the development of new space vehicles and infrastructure is directed at providing consumers with accessible and quality communications services by increasing the speeds of data transfer, providing higher positioning accuracy and more opportunities for the use of positioning in difficult-to-access terrain. In the future, satellite communications systems and television signal broadcasting will be in demand throughout Russian territory. The development of this field will provide an increase in data transfer volumes and multimedia content, including between satellites, by shifting to transmission frequencies up to 100 GHz.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Next-generation orbital stations
The creation of next-generation orbital stations is a breakthrough innovation in this field and could make it possible to manufacture special materials, microchips and nanostructures on industrial scales in space. The development of space (orbital) groups, including by creating new space instruments and improving existing rockets and stations and the expansion of ground-based infrastructure, including the creation of new and improved existing cosmodromes, control centres and communications, have already started to take shape. Next-gene- ration orbital stations will have greater levels of energy efficiency, comfort and safety. Moreover, the operating principles of orbital “factories” and automated research complexes will be developed, and foundations for the construction of robotic methods to carry out orbital operations and technical servicing in automated and adaptive modes will be established to provide automated docking technologies and to bring together the modules of a multi- functional orbital complex.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
"Space lift"
The creation of cable systems, including the development of a “space elevator” will make it possible to change the orbits of spacecraft, move goods between orbital stations, launch small spacecraft and deliver payloads into orbit, which for traditional rocket technologies is not realistic or would incur significant costs.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Unconventional oil deposits
Oil from unconventional deposits includes problematic reserves of hydrocarbon raw materials, in particular traditional (or mobile) oil resources with difficult extraction conditions and immobile (or slow-moving) oil, caused by low porosity of collectors or high molecularity of the hydrocarbons themselves – dense and high-viscosity oils. However, on account of the lower consumer qualities and high costs of extraction, oil supplies from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions are evaluated only provisionally. The extraction of heavy oils is currently carried out in Canada, Venezuela, the USA and a number of other countries, including Russia, but according to the majority of forecasts, in the next two decades these products will not make a significant contribution to the global oil recovery.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Unconventional oil
The cost-effective development of unconventional oil (heavy oils and bitumen) will make it possible to significantly (by several times) increase the hydrocarbon resource base. At the same time, the extraction of heavy oils is much more polluting from an environmental perspective and is characterized by significant increases in CO2 emissions as compared with traditional oil extraction. The extraction costs will only be paid back under the conditions of high global oil prices. Thus, heavy oils are coming to be a strategic reserve of liquid fuel to provide energy for developed nations in the event of a crisis.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Natural gas from unconventional deposits and with unconventional extraction conditions
Natural gas from unconventional deposits with unconventional extraction conditions (shale, water-dissolved, gas from other low-permeability formations and deep beds, coal methane, gas hydrates) is unique for its lower mineral content per unit area and higher development costs compared with traditional reservoirs. Unconventional gas resources are estimated at about 950–1200 trillion m3 (excluding gas-hydrates and water-dissolved gas, which increase this value considerably) and are more than double the volume of traditional resources.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Liquefied natural gas
In recent years the global energy market has seen a significant increase in the role of liquefied natural gas. Its main advantage lies in its potential for transcontinental transportation using high-capacity cryogenic tankers. The development of liquefied natural gas has had a serious impact on the globalisation of world gas markets: opportunities have arisen to extract gas in regions where the routing of pipeline systems is not seen to be appropriate. Additionally a number of countries without their own supplies of natural gas and in geographical disadvantageous regions obtain a possibility to bring gas fuels and raw materials into their economies. Increasing share of natural gas in the global energy balance due to substituting oil and coal gives an impetus to the development of these technologies which also lead to reduced CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
2016
Russia 2030: science and technology foresight
Russia, Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation