Trends Identified
Global knowledge society
In this study, we zero in on megatrend number six, the Global Knowledge Society, and its three subtrends: know-how base, war for talent, and gender gap. From basic education to workplace applications, we uncover the challenges and opportunities that lay ahead in the field of education and the need for a skilled workforce. We begin by looking at how the diffusion of knowledge can be increased. Education, of course, is the foundation of the know-how base. We track how the number of years spent in primary, lower and upper secondary, and tertiary education directly correspond to increased GDP per capita. We also examine literacy rates, how enrollment figures differ between world regions, and what can be done to level the field. This will be a critical step in ending the war for talent, where certain demographics in established economies have left them lacking skilled workers—approximately 38% of employers struggle to find suitable candidates—and emerging regions are threatened with a brain drain. We continue by examining the gender gap, comparing figures across developed and developing regions, and identifying the factors that must be addressed to bridge the difference.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Sustainability & global responsibility
In times of manifold conflicts and global challenges such as climate change, the need for societal and economic sustainability, as well as global responsibility, is only too evident. In particular, the increasing number of intrastate conflicts is calling for an enduring coordination of international governance in the future. For companies and their global value chains, this suggests a need to review potential areas of conflict more vigilantly.
2017
Megatrends: a bigger picture for a better strategy
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
The rise of the global middle class
With regard to global and regional income distribution and associated societal developments, our research identified six major trends. First decreasing inequality between countries, second the rise of a new global middle class. Third, European and North American share of the global middle class fall significantly over the coming decades. Fourth, in addition, there is evidence that the middle class in these regions is on the decline. Fifth, the relation between inequality and the future strength and composition of the global middle class. Sixth, global middle-class growth will engender the flourishing of democratic and ‘self-expression’ values.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Growing and ageing population
The analysis of qualitative and quantitative data on demographic change helped identify three major trends as particularly relevant. First, the global demographic profile will be characterised by population growth, led by middle-income and lower-income countries, about which the literature and projections strongly agree. The second major demographic trend analysed in the literature has to do with population ageing, initially in high-income countries and subsequently in the rest of the world, starting with middle-income countries. The literature points to a third trend that is likely to develop in the European Union and other developed economies in the future, namely transformations in the structure of families and household sizes.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Employment and the changing labour market
Four major trends have been identified with regard to employment and associated labour market developments. First, global population growth and population ageing are projected to have a significant impact on the workforce in the future. The second trend analysed focuses on the changes in labour force participation and growing vulnerabilities in the work place. The third major trend that resonates strongly in the literature concerns the diverging demand and supply of skills and patterns of employment creation. Finally, the working environment will be influenced by technological developments. New modes of production and manufacturing technologies are expected to advance further.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Evolving patterns and impacts of migration
migration will continue to be a complex phenomenon, with a variety of factors influencing people’s decision to migrate (provided their decision is voluntary) and evolving diversity in patterns and types of migration. internal migration will continue to be closely related to urbanization. There is global evidence that while migration from developing to developed countries remains strong, there are signs that migration to Europe and the United States is decreasing, with uneven reductions across different countries (Development Research Centre on Migration, 2009; OECD, 2011c). Looking ahead, some authors argue that an ageing Europe in need of inward migration to counter the decline in labour force may end up competing for migrants not only with other Western nations, but also with the emerging economies (see Fargues, 2008), although demographic change varies in impact and speed across EU countries.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Connected societies, empowered individuals?
Trends in connection, education and empowerment are interlaced in multiple ways and act as drivers, multipliers and indicators of progress towards addressing societal challenges. Overall, six major trends are identified in this report.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
People and behaviour: we move in mysterious ways
The notion that individuals are gradually becoming significant drivers of change has been widely reported, particularly in the popular media. In 2006, Time magazine elected ‘You’ (the individual) as person of the year – before the boom in social media and before the Arab Spring revolts, more recent events that reinforce the perception that people, their beliefs and behaviours may increasingly interact with the international and EU landscape. On the one hand, the use of ICTs for censorship in certain states and declining participation level in Western elections suggests that the keynote of this development is divergence. On the other hand, there is a commonly stated expectation that globalisation acts as an integrative and harmonising force and that we should witness a convergence of values affecting how people think and behave as a result. The emergence of a common ethos would influence some of the themes we discussed earlier, including the identity and values of the middle class, declining fertility levels, the diffusion and the use of technologies and migration flows. Yet, the evidence also points to potential divergence in values, as embodied by grassroots populist movements, online activism focusing on specific causes and political or religious extremisms.
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Gender equality: a pervading driver of change?
As a cross-cutting driver, gender is affecting several income groups and societies, particularly insofar as inequality is concerned. While each could be seen as an outcome of other societal developments (eg economic growth, value changes), there are several developments that could be seen as driving closure of the gender gap, for example, women’s growing involvement in politics, increasing educational attainment and labour market participation. Attitudes towards gender equality itself are likely to affect several policy areas in the future, owing to their relation with a variety of unpredictable factors such as fertility levels, migration flows and individual empowerment. For example, according to the EUISS, gender equality is one of the main drivers behind individual empowerment and the emergence of the global middle class, through the near-universal access to education and the empowering effects of ICT (EUISS, 2012).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation
Birth and death: the drivers of demography
The way in which individuals organise at a societal, community or household level – fragmented along dimensions of gender, age, ethnicity or citizenship – are likely to trigger an evolution in how policies are carried out in the future. Demographic change, which is both a cause and a consequence of these evolving organisations and structures, therefore forms a cross-cutting issue. It is thought to be driven by many actors, including medical progress, sanitation, pandemics or conflict and economic conditions, as well as policy levers (Bongaarts, 2009a; Bongaarts, 2009b).
2013
Europe's Societal Challenges: An analysis of global societal trends to 2030 and their impact on the EU
RAND Corporation