Trends Identified
Reality check
Last year saw a record jump in optimism regarding global growth prospects in 2018, and this exuberance translated across regions. This year, by contrast, saw a record jump in pessimism, with nearly 30% of CEOs projecting a decline in global economic growth, up from a mere 5% last year. CEOs also reported a noteworthy dip in confidence in their own organisations’ revenue prospects over the short (12-month) and medium (three-year) term. If CEOs’ confidence continues to be a leading indicator, global economic growth will slow down in 2019.
2019
22nd Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Look inside-out for growth
Across the survey rang a general theme of hunkering down as CEOs adapt to the strong nationalist and populist sentiment sweeping the globe. The threats they consider most pressing are less existential (e.g. terrorism, climate change) and more related to the ease of doing business in the markets where they operate (e.g. overregulation, policy uncertainty, availability of key skills, trade conflicts). When asked to identify the most attractive foreign markets for investment, CEOs are narrowing their choices and expressing more uncertainty.
2019
22nd Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Mind the information and skills gaps
In addition to the fault lines developing geopolitically, CEOs are working to bridge the gaps in their own capabilities. Organisations are struggling to translate a deluge of data into better decision making. There is a shortage of skilled talent to clean, integrate, and extract value from big data and move beyond baby steps toward artificial intelligence (AI). One of the more striking findings in this year’s survey was the fact that — despite billions of dollars of investment1 and priority positioning on the C-suite agenda — the gap between the information CEOs need and what they get has not closed in the past ten years.
2019
22nd Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Competing in an age of divergance
Over the past 20 years CEOs have witnessed tremendous upheavals as a result of globalisation and technological change. Both were core to our enquiries when we conducted our first Annual Global CEO Survey back in 1997. Since then, trade flows have quadrupled and global internet traffic has risen by a factor of 17.5 million.1 The twin forces of globalisation and technological progress have helped to boost living standards and lessen inequality between countries.2 And, in what’s perhaps the most remarkable achievement of all, they’ve lifted a billion people out of extreme poverty.3 But greater convergence has come with greater divergence, as CEOs have long predicted. In 2009, when we first asked CEOs about the risks associated with various global trends, 46% thought governments would become more protectionist; 73% expected other countries to challenge the G8’s dominance; and 76% anticipated a rise in political and religious tensions. And by the time we published our last survey in January 2016, most CEOs foresaw a world in which multiple beliefs, value systems, laws and liberties, banking systems and trading blocs would prevail (see Figure 1).
2017
20th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Managing man and machine
Some worry that globalisation will take away their jobs and they’re even more nervous about the impact of technology. Twenty years ago, there were fewer than 700,000 industrial robots worldwide; today, there are 1.8 million, and the number could soar to 2.6 million by 2019.9 Manufacturing output has simultaneously risen, but employment in the sector has fallen in various advanced economies.10 Technology has been one – although by no means the only – cause of these changes. Robots are now entering the services arena; 3-D printing can be used to make cars and aircraft; biotechnology will change the way we grow crops, produce food and manufacture medicines; and nanotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI) will affect numerous industries. All this could happen much more quickly than we expect. Just look at the advent of self-driving trucks to make deliveries, or Amazon’s new Go store, which uses technology to track what customers put in their shopping carts and bill them automatically when they walk out, eliminating the need for human cashiers.11
2017
20th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Gaining from connectivity without losing trust
Twenty years ago, trust wasn’t as high on the business radar as it is today. In fact, we didn’t survey CEOs about it until 2002, when the business community was reeling from accounting fraud scandals, the bursting of the dotcom bubble and the collapse of the equity markets. With hindsight, it seems hard to believe that only 12% of CEOs thought public trust in companies in their country had greatly declined, and only 29% thought the fallout from corporate misdeeds was a serious threat. Since then, the financial crisis has catapulted trust into the limelight, and the after-effects of stagnant economic growth and spiralling debt levels continue to fuel a climate of mistrust. The impact on CEOs has been significant: in 2013, 37% worried that lack of trust in business would harm their company’s growth. This year, the number has jumped to 58%. The breakdown in public trust now poses a potent risk to political, economic and social systems the world over.
2017
20th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Making globalisation work for all
For the past 20 years CEOs have been largely positive about the impacts of globalisation on their businesses and markets. But, by 2007, they were beginning to express reservations about the short-term effects on society. CEOs are still ambivalent. Today the vast majority believe that globalisation has helped to free up flows of money, people, goods and information, facilitate universal connectivity and create a skilled workforce. Yet a significant number say it’s done nothing to mitigate climate change, promote the development of fairer tax systems or close the gap between rich and poor (see Figure 14).
2017
20th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Growing in complicated times
Today’s CEOs face a business environment that’s becoming increasingly complicated to read and adapt to. Seven years on from the global financial crisis, the business landscape still hasn’t really returned to what it was. Will it ever? Last year regulation, skills, national debt, geopolitical uncertainty and taxes topped CEOs’ list of concerns about threats to business growth. None of these have gone away this year. In fact, the level of worry is higher today than at any point in the past five years. Concern about over-regulation in particular is still highest, cited by 79% of CEOs – making it the fourth year in a row that it’s risen (see Figure 1). Geopolitical uncertainty, meanwhile, has become the second biggest concern, cited by 74% of business leaders. This comes at a time when terror attacks are increasing and touching every part of the world, many linked to the heightened conflict in Iraq and Syria. Global conflicts are also connected to anxieties about social instability and readiness to respond to crises, named by 65% and 61% of CEOs, respectively. Cyber security is also a worry for 61% of CEOs, representing as it does threats to both national and commercial interests.
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Addressing greater expectations
As technology and other factors create an environment of higher transparency, CEOs have set their radar on a wide range of stakeholders. Customers remain the top priority, with 90% of CEOs indicating they have a high or very high impact on their business strategy (see Figure 6). But government and regulators come in second (cited by 69% of CEOs). That’s higher than industry competitors and peers (67%) and no doubt reflects CEOs’ enduring concerns about over-regulation in the marketplace. The views of these and other stakeholders, including employees and investors, aren’t just evolving but diverging, as CEOs have told us. Customer behaviour, in particular, has become more complicated as values and buying preferences evolve. The three biggest trends CEOs see as most influencing those views – technological advances, demographic changes and global economic shifts – as well as the interactions between them, are only going to continue to drive change (see Figure B, Looking for more data?, page 34).
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC
Transforming: technology, innovation and talent
It’s evident that most businesses today, in defining what they stand for, recognise the needs of a wider set of stakeholders – and their customers’ expectations about how they address those needs. Translating a broader corporate purpose into the everyday, however, is another matter entirely. Even the most committed can find it challenging in the extreme to reshape their company while facing day-to-day battles on every front to fight off competition, grow revenues and cut costs. Putting technology to work: business leaders understand all too well how technology is transforming their relationship with customers as well as other stakeholders. So it makes sense that they see technology as the best way to assess and deliver on changing customer expectations, with 51% of CEOs making significant changes in this area (see Figure 11). The innovation edge Over half of CEOs ranked R&D and innovation technologies as generating the greatest return in terms of successful stakeholder engagement (see Figure 12). The winners in the innovation game, however, will be those that harness technology and innovation to deliver products and services that are cost-effective, convenient, functional and sustainable. The people edge As companies look to meet the complicated expectations of stakeholders and society, they will need a new generation of people with an entrepreneurial mindset who can harness technology and drive innovation.
2016
19th Annual global CEO survey
PWC