Trends Identified

Demographics

Over the next century, changes in the world’s demography – the characteristics and composition of the global population – are likely to be dramatic. This is not just about gross numbers; it is also about the age, lifespan, distribution and activities of people. The world’s population has climbed from 1.6 billion in 1900 to around 7 billion today, and is projected to exceed 8 billion by 2025 and perhaps 9 billion by 2050. Over 60 percent of the global population is likely to live in Africa and Asia by 2050.19 Approximately 70 percent of the growth is likely to occur in 24 of the world’s poorest countries.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Ageing nations

The world’s population is getting older, with the population over 60 growing fastest.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Mobility

As a share of the world’s population, migration today is less prevalent than it has been in the past, such as during the age of mass migration in the 19th century. Urbanisation is also occurring rapidly within our populations.28 In 1950, only three of every ten people lived in cities. In 2008, the number of people in cities was greater than that in rural areas for the first time.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Rise of the middle class

Mobility is not just about geography; there is also an integral socioeconomic dimension. Over the next 40 years, billions more people are expected to join the global middle class.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Empowerment through education

Access to primary education in particular is regarded as critical to socioeconomic mobility, and for this reason it has been an objective of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Substantial inroads have been made this past decade in reducing the number of out-of-school children

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Uneven and unequal

For the past three decades, there has been a steady decline in poverty rates in the developing world. This progress is anticipated to continue, not least in countries such as China and India. Yet the contrast between rich and poor remains stark.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

Generational and gender divides

While there has been solid progress on reducing extreme poverty, social exclusion persists. Exclusion hits the old, the young and women hardest, especially in developing countries. Gender inequality remains a key barrier to economic growth and poverty reduction. Women and girls account for six out of ten of the world’s poorest and two-thirds of the world’s illiterate people. According to the UNDP, women perform 66 percent of the world’s work, but earn just 10 percent of the income and own only 1 percent of the property.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

New world order

The shift of economic power to emerging markets is in full swing. Reports suggest that the GDP of developing countries is now at least equal to the developed world.46 Developing countries’ share of global exports has increased over the last decade from 33 to 43 percent. Their share of global foreign direct investments (FDI) inflow has grown from nearly 20 to over 50 percent.47 China and India are on track to have 35 percent of the world’s population and 25 percent of its GDP by 2030.48 Brazil, Russia, India, and China’s combined share of world GDP is expected to match that of the original G7 countries by 2030.49 Even if these projections prove too optimistic, the rise of new economic powers may be expected to lead to a new world order.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

The global marketplace

The landscape of trade in goods and services has fundamentally changed since the Second World War, as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) shepherded in a more open and connected global economy. Today there are nearly 160 members of GATT’s successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO). From 1950– 2007 trade grew by an average of 6.2 percent per year.52 In 2011 the total value of world merchandise trade was estimated at USD$18.2 trillion.53 Developing countries achieved a share of over 50 percent of global trade in 2012.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School

More seats at the table

Whilst the state remains the principal actor in world politics, there are now almost four times as many states as there were in 1945. This increase in players makes international consensus on global challenges harder to reach.

2013

Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations

Oxford Martin School