Trends Identified
Back to the future?
While overall violence has declined, conflict has not ceased. At certain times during the
last decade, 15 major conflicts were taking place at once.60 The majority of wars remain civil wars or insurgencies, largely ethnic and nationalist conflicts. Potentially devastating tensions still simmer, increasingly driven by religious fundamentalism. The stalemate of the Middle East peace process provides continued instability. Increasingly, small networks and individuals have the capacity to create havoc on an unprecedented scale at low cost.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
The “perfect storm”
Sustainability is inherently about the long term. It requires the reconciliation of environmental, social and economic demands necessary for the sustained survival of humankind and other organisms on our planet. Above all, living sustainably means grappling with the “perfect storm” associated with the inseparability of water, food, energy and climate.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
It’s the green economy
Historical, carbon-intensive models of economic growth are unsustainable. Since the Industrial Revolution there has been a strong correlation of GDP per capita with CO emissions.77 The use of carbon has yielded extraordinary benefits and none of the now advanced economies would have developed without it, but the negative costs arising from the consequent climate change now pose
a rising threat.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Health
The past century has delivered remarkable advances in health, as is illustrated by the increase of 4.7 years (male) and 5.1 years (female) to the average global life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2010. However, translating public health knowledge into practice has been fragmented and fraught with difficulty. Whilst biomedical technology and capacity to enhance the quality of health care and prevention have improved significantly, access to health care remains vastly lopsided, with the poor and disadvantaged suffering a disproportionate burden of illness and disease.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Lifestyle choices, lifestyle diseases
The growing threat today is non-communicable diseases (NDC). Most are caused by preventable factors, including poor diet, obesity and inactivity. NDCs like diabetes, cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic lung disease were responsible for 63 percent, or 36 million, of all global deaths in 2008. Described as the “invisible epidemic”,88 NCDs are now
the leading cause of death in the world.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Interconnected and infectious
Infectious diseases remain a significant threat, particularly in today’s highly mobile, interdependent and interconnected world. Risks anywhere can be threats everywhere. With around 40 new infectious diseases discovered in the past 40 years, of which SARS, HIV and different types of influenza are but three, the concern about further new pandemics is not a case of if but when.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Technology
A dramatic megatrend of the last half-century has been the pace of technological change. Computing power has been doubling almost every 18 months, virtually matching Gordon Moore’s 1965 observation. This appears likely to continue for at least the next decade or two,101 and will continue to revolutionise the way we lead our lives and the way societies are governed.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
The great leveller?
New information technologies are reaching the world’s poor much faster than food and toilets. A recent UN report suggested six billion people have access to mobile phones, while only 4.5 billion have access to working toilets. Technology offers great potential to enhance education opportunities, dramatically improve health outcomes, promote free speech and democracy, and offer greater access to global markets. The Internet is the key driver of global connectivity and opportunity, but different bandwidth speeds, limited access, and contrasting levels of openness can mean that
the Internet exacerbates rather than offsets inequality.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
Double-edged sword
Whilst technological advances have revolutionised our lives, and offer profound possibilities for tackling challenges, they also maximise vulnerability.
2013
Now for the long term - The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations
Oxford Martin School
OMNI-CHANNEL RESURRECTS THE HIGH STREET
Daily Mail The high street is dying There are countless articles heralding the death of the high street. Even the most trusted commentators are jumping on the death cry; recently, the BBC listed “Six Reasons Behind the High Street Crisis,” with the shift to online shopping cited at No. 2. The growth of the ‘bricks-to-clicks’ phenomenon has been accelerated by the rise of the ‘on-demand economy’, with consumers less willing to wait to get their hands on goods and more online retailers offering same-day delivery.
2019
The Ogilvy Consulting Trends for 2019
Ogilvy