Trends Identified
Fragile globalisation in a multipolar world
Fears about weakening enthusiasm for globalisation have, seemingly, been realised in the past few years. However, there are numerous variables that will shape whether the purported anti- trade environment of 2016 lasts to 2035. In the most likely scenario, globalisation patterns will be shaped less by politics and more by structural factors. Global trade is steady as a percentage of global growth, likely due to China’s reorientation towards domestic consumption and the maturing of trade in goods. A more services-oriented economy will have different requirements for global trade governance, but Beijing, Brussels, and Washington will remain the key decision points for global economic affairs.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Industrial and technological revolution
By 2035, technological advances will have a major impact on the social and economic foundations of society, potentially more far-reaching than the initial phase of computerisation from the 1980s onwards. Technologies involving automation and machine learning have the potential to disrupt job markets, making millions of jobs obsolete. As technologies like self- driving cars begins to proliferate, governments at all levels will be faced with questions of adaptation, governance, and human development. Countries will be forced to consider how much of their core information infrastructure they will permit to be run by companies domiciled in other countries. Parties may be faced with a trade-off between protecting consumers’ privacy and encouraging the growth of artificial intelligence firms that rely on large amount of data for training and improving algorithms. The question of when platform companies achieve monopolistic power will be a key issue brought before the court system in many countries.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Climate change and resource competition
Changes in the global climate due to rising greenhouse gases will not be reversed by 2035, even if great strides are made with the implementation of political agreements to greatly reduce carbon usage in the future. As the consequences of climate change become increasingly apparent -- and natural events such as famines and water strain become linked to climate change in popular discourse -- the world is likely to see climate-related political disputes proliferate at the national and international level. Renewable energy will proliferate and become cost-competitive around the world, but will trigger instability in countries dependent on fossil fuels, many of which are in Europe’s neighbourhood.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Changing power in the international system
In many ways, the power balance in the international system in 2017 looks broadly similar to the world in 2000. Yet in some fundamental ways, the world has changed considerably. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have left its participants wary of foreign intervention. China has expanded its global presence. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to intervene in neighbouring countries and attack democracies with information ‘wars’. And the impact of the 2007-08 financial crisis has hit many nations’ capabilities to fund military increases. There are some broad trends that are likely to continue through 2035: the United States will remain the largest military power; China and regional leaders will see their power grow; Russia will focus on areas of asymmetric advantage to counteract its declining population; and the creation of a unified European military structure with significant expeditionary power will be one of the biggest wild cards in the international system.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
New arenas of state competition
When projecting long-term trends in international affairs, it is important to consider the possibility that the major conflicts of 2035 will be centred on issues that barely register in the international arena today, or are secondary matters at best. Over the next two decades, these will likely include: the space market; new weapons systems like unmanned vehicles; policing rogue states; cyberwarfare and internet governance; and the Arctic Ocean.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Politics of the Information Age
Politics often evolves as a reaction to changing societal and economic trends. There is evidence -- from measures on inequality to the percentage of the economy comprised of services -- that in much of the developed world, the industrial era has transitioned to an information economy. Political reactions to these economic changes are already underway across the United States and Europe. While they are highly unlikely to completely overturn the existing political landscape by 2035, they will add new layers that will shift partisan coalitions and incentive structures. Some of the most important aspects will be industry disruption and political competition for new or more important voting blocs such as newly upper middle class professionals, former industry workers, gig economy contractors, and the elderly.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Ecological threats
While climate change is a gradual process that will be felt over the course of decades, it also increases the likelihood of relatively sudden disasters, from stronger hurricanes, deeper famines, or droughts. By 2035, the world will most likely be confronted by more natural disasters, and the political system will be required to adjust to them. Northern Europe will see greater flooding. Southern Europe will experience more frequent heatwaves. The international system will need to create a more robust system to protect climate refugees and migrants, who will grow as climate change increases the power of natural disasters and rapid urbanisation means that natural disasters will affect more people.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Renewables step up to the plate; coal strikes out
The rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies; in 2016, growth in solar PV capacity was larger than for any other form of generation; since 2010, costs of new solar PV have come down by 70%, wind by 25% and battery costs by 40%.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
The future is electrifying
The growing electrification of energy; in 2016, spending by the world’s consumers on electricity approached parity with their spending on oil products.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)
When China changes, everything changes
The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China, the world’s largest energy consumer.
2017
World energy outlook 2017 executive summary
International Energy Agency (IEA)