Trends Identified

Natural disasters
Natural disasters will have increasing impact, partly due to overall increases in the severity and prevalence of severe weather events, but also due changes in the regions and times of year where these events may occur.
2017
Strategic foresight analysis
NATO
Reviewing the legality of cyber weapons, means and methods of warfare
One of the most remarkable phenomena in the realm of modern warfare in recent decades has been the emergence of cyberspace as a new warfighting domain. Cyberspace is now commonly depicted as the fifth warfighting domain, along with land, sea, air and space. The conduct of military operations in this domain, however, has few similarities with the other four. The question of whether existing rules of international humanitarian law (IHL) are adequate for regulating the conduct of cyber-operations has become a matter of contention among the community of international law scholars. This chapter explores the implications of this debate for the conduct of Article 36 reviews. It translates the product of academic discourse into concrete legal advice for Article 36 review practitioners and military lawyers advising commanders on the impact of international law on cyber-operations.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of weapons, means and methods of warfare with autonomous capabilities
Artificial intelligence and robotics have made great strides in the past three decades. One major outcome of innovation in these fields has been the remarkable progress of autonomy in weapon systems and the networks in which they are embedded. The advance of autonomy is a notable technological development in the sense that it fundamentally changes the way the military can field forces and make decisions, lethal or otherwise, on the battlefield. This chapter explores the implications of this development for the conduct of Article 36 reviews.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Reviewing the legality of military human enhancement technologies
A third emerging technology area that is expected to shape the future of warfare is the enhancement of military personnel, known as ‘military human enhancement’ (MHE). MHE technologies are not stand-alone weapons or means of warfare, but are tech- nologies designed to improve human warfighting capabilities. It is therefore not obvi- ous whether, and if so how, the requirements of Article 36 apply in this area.
2017
Article 36 reviews
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Trends in income poverty
Income poverty has fallen sharply in some regions of the world in the past 20 years, although considerable challenges remain, with recent economic shocks and escalating conflicts leading to a resurgence of poverty across different regions and countries.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Multidimensional poverty
During the MDG period the world has seen significant progress in economic and human development.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Trends in income inequality
Evidence shows that income inequality globally has been falling over recent decades. This decline in global inequality has been attributed to a convergence of income between countries that was mainly spurred by the rapid growth and rising incomes in populous developing countries such as China and India, as well as good economic performance in Latin America and Africa in the past 15 years.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Other dimensions of inequalities
Although overall gender gaps in education, employment and political representation have narrowed globally, women continue to face disadvantages in access to work, economic assets and participation in private and public decision-making.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Political inequalities
Rising inequalities, both vertical and horizontal, have fuelled discontent in many countries, leading to an upsurge in large-scale protests and social movements around the world in recent years, including in the Arab region. These protests have taken place in a broader context of democratization that has accelerated over the past three decades in many parts of the world and has been accompanied by people’s enhanced ability to voice opinions with greater possibilities for accountability at regional, national and local levels.
2017
Global trends
UNDP
Trends in population growth
Compared with the recent past, the world population growth rate has slowed down. While 10 years ago the global population was growing by 1.24 percent per year, today it is growing by 1.18 percent per year, or approximately an additional 83 million people annually (Ibid.). With this population growth rate, the world population is projected to increase by more than 1 billion people within the next 15 years, reaching 8.5 billion in 2030.
2017
Global trends
UNDP