Trends Identified
New arenas of state competition
When projecting long-term trends in international affairs, it is important to consider the possibility that the major conflicts of 2035 will be centred on issues that barely register in the international arena today, or are secondary matters at best. Over the next two decades, these will likely include: the space market; new weapons systems like unmanned vehicles; policing rogue states; cyberwarfare and internet governance; and the Arctic Ocean.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Bottle fed
Liquid meals are typically the staple of babies and toddlers — but companies such as Soylent and Ample are creating “meal-replacement” drinks by fusing obscure ingredients, such as bioengineered algae (to provide lipids and fatty acids) and artichoke inulin (a source of carbohydrate). Beyond criticizing the potential tedium of drinking the same bottle each day, nutritionists have struggled to find fault with the health benefits of such drinks — which meet stringent US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) requirements.
2017
How we eat now: five disruptive food trends
EY
3D printing
The IoT and fine dining are increasingly crossing paths via 3D printing. Anything which can be liquidized, in theory, can form an ink which, layer by layer, amounts to a meal. And this has implications for customizing nutrients, liquidizing the unappealing. The process still takes a while — especially when cooling time is included. Moreover, the necessity of creating a cartridge for every different food group means additional costs and complexities. However, while to date 3D-printed food has found a foothold primarily in the more expensive restaurants, it is beginning to cross over into the mainstream.
2017
How we eat now: five disruptive food trends
EY
Insects
Inexpensive, nutritious and plentiful — insects fulfil many criteria that meat cannot. Food manufacturer Exo recently launched a set of bars made from cricket flour: cricket flour contains 60% protein, more calcium than milk and all essential amino acids, but is gluten- and dairy-free. It takes 100 gallons of water to produce 72g of crickets as opposed to only 6g of beef. Grasshoppers too are on the menu, along with fruit fly larvae. Over one-third of the world’s population already eats insects, such as caterpillars and termites — but questions remain as to how they can be presented to appeal to a more widespread consumer base.
2017
How we eat now: five disruptive food trends
EY
On-demand
Following a general trend for personalization through technology, food experiences can now be tailored to your specific tastes. Algorithms are used to track when supply of certain products outstrips demand, in order to push adjust pricing3. New apps get to know your tastes, similar to the way Spotify4 delivers music recommendations, and give you rewards for loyalty. Workplace vending machines are getting a significant makeover too — for example, Byte’s vending machines5 offer sushi instead of crisps and chocolate bars.
2017
How we eat now: five disruptive food trends
EY
An ageing global population
The world is facing an ageing population due to a combination of increased life expectancy and declining fertility rates. As dependency ratios shift with growing elderly populations, governments will be faced with falling saving rates, falling consumption, and growing pressure on social services. There are stark differences in demographic changes between developed countries and developing countries. In general, high-income countries are experiencing population stagnation or decline. Conversely, many developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are experiencing “youth bulges” and expansion of working-age population. Both demographic scenarios pose challenges for governments seeking to create policies that are economically sustainable and politically palatable.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Fragile globalisation in a multipolar world
Fears about weakening enthusiasm for globalisation have, seemingly, been realised in the past few years. However, there are numerous variables that will shape whether the purported anti- trade environment of 2016 lasts to 2035. In the most likely scenario, globalisation patterns will be shaped less by politics and more by structural factors. Global trade is steady as a percentage of global growth, likely due to China’s reorientation towards domestic consumption and the maturing of trade in goods. A more services-oriented economy will have different requirements for global trade governance, but Beijing, Brussels, and Washington will remain the key decision points for global economic affairs.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Industrial and technological revolution
By 2035, technological advances will have a major impact on the social and economic foundations of society, potentially more far-reaching than the initial phase of computerisation from the 1980s onwards. Technologies involving automation and machine learning have the potential to disrupt job markets, making millions of jobs obsolete. As technologies like self- driving cars begins to proliferate, governments at all levels will be faced with questions of adaptation, governance, and human development. Countries will be forced to consider how much of their core information infrastructure they will permit to be run by companies domiciled in other countries. Parties may be faced with a trade-off between protecting consumers’ privacy and encouraging the growth of artificial intelligence firms that rely on large amount of data for training and improving algorithms. The question of when platform companies achieve monopolistic power will be a key issue brought before the court system in many countries.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)
Ethical choices
Sustainability and ethics are growing and, arguably, necessary trends. Insects far outnumber livestock (in 2013, the UN suggested crickets could help stabilize the world food supply6) and don’t produce methane (unlike cows). Soylent’s meal-replacing drinks are vegan, and the precision of 3D-printed food reduces waste.
2017
How we eat now: five disruptive food trends
EY
Climate change and resource competition
Changes in the global climate due to rising greenhouse gases will not be reversed by 2035, even if great strides are made with the implementation of political agreements to greatly reduce carbon usage in the future. As the consequences of climate change become increasingly apparent -- and natural events such as famines and water strain become linked to climate change in popular discourse -- the world is likely to see climate-related political disputes proliferate at the national and international level. Renewable energy will proliferate and become cost-competitive around the world, but will trigger instability in countries dependent on fossil fuels, many of which are in Europe’s neighbourhood.
2017
Global trends to 2035
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS)